ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Sweet! Nice to hear it's up to 60%....glad to know we are going to get to our 4th storm before August ends.....
This will be fun to track...Hopefully it will get to cat 4 intensity and get the classic buzzsaw appearance....

[ROCK]

noticed that some drier air is being drawn into the circulation from the north....might keep it in check..

[MiamiHurricanes10]

noticed that some drier air is being drawn into the circulation from the north....might keep it in check..

It's beginning to wrap around, so dry air entrainment into the circulation is unlikely at this point. Overall, conditions remain favorable for this to become a tropical depression at any time. Really, all it needs is to close of its circulation, the satellite appearance looks worthy of a TD to me.

[gatorcane]

I think ripe season conditions are forcing the issue. IMO there's a clear recurve synoptic set-up ahead.

Agreed, now that it is really developing, kiss this one good-bye likely. GFS looks like it has been right all along......

I am about 95% confident of fish at this point.

[KWT]

Looking neat right now its finally managing to focus in on one region, and interestingly enough its actually the western one which means this one may get a little further west then expected, which I think will occur.

Still too early to really narrow down the track IMO though a recurve still looking totally odds on...as I've said all along...ho hum!

[Aric Dunn]

noticed that some drier air is being drawn into the circulation from the north....might keep it in check..

It's beginning to wrap around, so dry air entrainment into the circulation is unlikely at this point. Overall, conditions remain favorable for this to become a tropical depression at any time. Really, all it needs is to close of its circulation, the satellite appearance looks worthy of a TD to me.

from all things I can see the circulation is closed in a small area right near the center but the inflow is somewhat split on the NE side due to the extension of the trough axis. It is however extremely close and due to how fast it has organized from this morning tomorrow it should be TD probably 11am. They will likely wait till the trough axis is completely detached.

[hurricaneCW]

I think it's best to just focus on its intensity rather than the track since a recurve is highly likely. Plus, I must have read the word "fish" over a 1,000 times so it's time to put that word to rest right now.

[cycloneye]

GFS looks like it has been right all along......

It was brushing the NE Caribbean in the first runs, then after those, it started to make fishland a home for it.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS looks like it has been right all along......

It was brushing the NE Caribbean in the first runs, then after those it started to make fishland a home for it.

that and it had it developed a couple days ago.. the development kept getting pushed back...

[MGC]

Wow...I checked this morning and 95L looked like a train wreck.....now it looks like a jail break. If this recent trend in organization continues we should have a TD soon. Should track westward for a few days...conditions look favorable for intensification, finally no shear.......MGC

[KWT]

I think it's best to just focus on its intensity rather than the track since a recurve is highly likely. Plus, I must have read the word "fish" over a 1,000 times so it's time to put that word to rest right now.

I've personally not used a fish because a direct hit/Nerwfoundland hit means its not a total fish IMO...and I'm stil lnot totally convined the first trough has the strength to totally do the job...but we will see, a recurve is looking just about certain...and I'll feel very vindicated after what alot of people have said to me in the last few days if that happened...

[gatorcane]

I think it's best to just focus on its intensity rather than the track since a recurve is highly likely. Plus, I must have read the word "fish" over a 1,000 times so it's time to put that word to rest right now.

I've personally not used a fish because a direct hit/Nerwfoundland hit means its not a total fish IMO...and I'm stil lnot totally convined the first trough has the strength to totally do the job...but we will see, a recurve is looking just about certain...and I'll feel very vindicated after what alot of people have said to me in the last few days if that happened...

I have been with u on the recurve idea

Yeah it may be an issue for Newfoundland but probably not the islands or US.

Actually probably will miss north America entirely with the size of that trough

[gatorcane]

Looks like it is already a tropical storm if you ask me and headed pretty much due west still (not gaining any lattitude)...looks like it has picked up some speed as well.

Amazing how quickly it is getting its act together. Could easily see this becoming a major

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Pressure down and winds up. Moving westward with a slight northward hint, but not quite WNW.

18z ATCF Best Track/Center Fix.

AL, 95, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 30, 1008, DB,

[wxman57]

Yep, well on its way to developing now. Banding developing, nice rotation near 11.5N/31.5W. No doubt it'll be Danielle. Probably a TD tomorrow now.

[cycloneye]

Pressure down and winds up. Moving westward with a slight northward hint, but not quite WNW.

18z ATCF Best Track/Center Fix.

AL, 95, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 30, 1008, DB,

LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 31.8W DIRCUR = 281DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

[gatorcane]

Danielle is really going to pump up the ACE for the Atlantic.....

Reminding me alot of Hurricane Bill from last year, even with the track (probably farther east than this but some type of recurve).....in fact this season is reminding me alot of last year, especially since after this system, the GFS is showing nothing for 2 weeks.

Hurricane Bill track (2009):

[supercane]

Also looking better on recent TRMM pass:

[MGC]

Anything at this point will pump up the Atlantic ACE....it has been pathetic since June. This one is starting to get the look...first major of the season?????.......MGC

[Emmett_Brown]

Beautiful to see formation on vis loop as the sun begins to set (time sensitive): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html

It certainly seems to be on its way to forming. Critical to the future track in my opinion is whether it can maintain its due west heading for the next couple of days. It seems to still be attached to the ITCZ, and i don't see any northern component yet. Most models show some N component out of the shoot, so it's not a lock to recurve in my opinion. We are in the middle of a strong La Nina... my gut instinct is that the trough will be more shallow and progressive then the GFS depicts. I actually think this could threaten the northern islands, and possibly the GOM in the long term. NAO is forecast by some models to trend more positive over the next week. Just my opinion in the face of overwhelming model data suggesting re-curve.