ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Great band setting up to the north..I expect to see a nice burst over the center with very cold cloud tops tonight.

[cycloneye]

A beautiful scene as the sun sets in the area where 95L is and see how it is organizing in a fairly good pace.

[gatorcane]

How could this not be even a TD??? I now the NHC is conservative (skipping from code orange at 30% chance of dev to a depression is a bit drastic), but just pull the trigger already! You have all models on board on development and structurally it is very impressive.

Not sure about you guys but this thing has gone to next to nothing to something in only about 6 hours. If RI exists for invests we just saw it.

Bring on TD 6!

[ConvergenceZone]

I sure hope this misses Burmuda if this becomes a major...

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak

21/1745 UTC 10.5N 32.2W T1.5/1.5 95L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

Almost a TD.

[Nimbus]

We have a LLC to track and the models are initialized better. Only thing I see that might preclude rapid development is the the proximity to the ITCZ and maybe a little dry on the north side till this gets past 45W. I don't feel confident about the ridge configuration north of the islands yet especially with the storm only moving out of the gates at 7 knots..

I'll waste some space and say my gut feels like this will be the first major and the east coast of the US better pay attention. All it would take is a weaker than expected trough or a ridge building back in later.

[Aric Dunn]

How could this not be even a TD??? I now the NHC is conservative (skipping from code orange at 30% chance of dev to a depression is a bit drastic), but just pull the trigger already! You have all models on board on development and structurally it is very impressive.

Not sure about you guys but this thing has gone to next to nothing to something in only about 6 hours. If RI exists for invests we just saw it.

Bring on TD 6!

like I said before there is still a trough axis extending NE of it..

[KWT]

There is Aric but clearly this one is very close now to developing, the images sure look like banding is occuring right now so I fully expect them to up it to say 80% next time round, no real reason to hold back with it...

Models are if anything trending eastwards, starting to look like a real early recurve...

[gatorcane]

How about we invent a new acronym: RO which means rapid organization which we can use for invests or depressions that organize very quickly.

[KWT]

I like it Gatorcane, if you were to dump this into the Gulf no one will seriously tell me it wouldn't get upgraded?

Its a clear cut TD IMO had it not been for perhaps the circulation still present further east...

[Aric Dunn]

There is Aric but clearly this one is very close now to developing, the images sure look like banding is occuring right now so I fully expect them to up it to say 80% next time round, no real reason to hold back with it...

Models are if anything trending eastwards, starting to look like a real early recurve...

I understand its well on its way but it Does not matter if its close... unless the circulation is completely free of and boundaries they typically dont upgrade because the inflow and wind field is not entirely closed.

[srainhoutx]

Floater now up for 95L.

[KWT]

I can't imagine it not being closed Aric though, that presentation is one of the best from an invest I've ever seen...

[blazess556]

I can't imagine it not being closed Aric though, that presentation is one of the best from an invest I've ever seen...

nhc should call it a td at 5pm

[hurricaneCW]

I can't imagine it not being closed Aric though, that presentation is one of the best from an invest I've ever seen...

nhc should call it a td at 5pm

Why? There's no need to rush things considering it's way out in the Atlantic and not expected to affect anyone but marine activity. I say they wait until we see a burst of convection over the LLC, TD tomorrow, TS on Monday.

[ROCK]

I can't imagine it not being closed Aric though, that presentation is one of the best from an invest I've ever seen...

nhc should call it a td at 5pm

Why? There's no need to rush things considering it's way out in the Atlantic and not expected to affect anyone but marine activity. I say they wait until we see a burst of convection over the LLC, TD tomorrow, TS on Monday.

agree...no rush...it might pulse down overnight then you have another TD5.....dry air being drawn again from the north....I would like to see how it looks later tonight...

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking this could start RI'ing once it develops...perhaps Hurricane Danielle within 72 hours or sooner, and Major Hurricane Danielle by mid-week at the latest.

[Air Force Met]

There is Aric but clearly this one is very close now to developing, the images sure look like banding is occuring right now so I fully expect them to up it to say 80% next time round, no real reason to hold back with it...

Models are if anything trending eastwards, starting to look like a real early recurve...

I understand its well on its way but it Does not matter if its close... unless the circulation is completely free of and boundaries they typically dont upgrade because the inflow and wind field is not entirely closed.

Oh...its closed. Is it completely circular? No...and its still part of the ITCZ....but it has a closed circulation of that there is no doubt.

Its also a recurver...I feel there is no doubt about that either.

[Aric Dunn]

I can't imagine it not being closed Aric though, that presentation is one of the best from an invest I've ever seen...

you should know better... whenever there is a trough attached to it they typically do not upgrade. and that trough is clearly still attached to the NE but its is weakening. I imagine they wait till morning. probably be 80% at 8 and then TD either at 8am or 11am.

[cycloneye]

Floater now up for 95L.