WPAC: EX Tropical Storm MINDULLE
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Typhoon Hunter
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phwxenthusiast
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StormingB81
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Even if 94W does become a tropical storm, we would still be in the second-slowest season, behind 1998. In 1998, the fifth named storm, 9805 Stella, formed September 13.
The average number of named storms from 1951 through 2008 on this date is 12.3, so we are eight storms below average at the moment.
We are on pace for 6.26 named storms for the whole year, having had four storms through 233 days. The seasonal average from 1951 through 2008 is just under 27.
The average number of named storms from 1951 through 2008 on this date is 12.3, so we are eight storms below average at the moment.
We are on pace for 6.26 named storms for the whole year, having had four storms through 233 days. The seasonal average from 1951 through 2008 is just under 27.
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Thats just amazing and shows how exceptionaly slow it has been out there, to think we are 8 storms behind the average!!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
Hmm, it might pick up strength, but once again I would bet it goes W across the SCS, probably hitting Hainan and North Vietnam again. Might become a STS.
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TCFA issued.
WTPN21 PGTW 211230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1N 117.3E TO 18.7N 113.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
211132Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N
116.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N
117.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 116.8E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD, BUT WELL DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 210914Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
CONFIRMS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPINGED BY A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL OVER LUZON, THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO HAVE EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IS IN A REGION
OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221230Z.//
NNNN
WTPN21 PGTW 211230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1N 117.3E TO 18.7N 113.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
211132Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N
116.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N
117.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 116.8E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD, BUT WELL DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 210914Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
CONFIRMS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPINGED BY A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL OVER LUZON, THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO HAVE EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IS IN A REGION
OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO
INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221230Z.//
NNNN
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If I remember rightly the ECM did try to develop a weak system close to this area a good week ago so that may not be a bad call from that model.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Yeah center is somewhat displaced there though it is quite probably closed looking at the Vis imagery there. Trying to wrap the convection around.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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phwxenthusiast
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Re:
KWT wrote:If I remember rightly the ECM did try to develop a weak system close to this area a good week ago so that may not be a bad call from that model.
one of the best models in my opinion...
tries to develop another system late next week, let's see how it pans out...
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