ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[thetruesms]

I'm pretty impressed with our friend's progress today. As AFM just pointed out, it's still got its quirks, but it's well on the way. The ASCAT pass posted a little bit back really shows well that while there's a good circulation out there, it's still somewhat stretched out. Has to make itself more independent from the trough that birthed it, as well, but that will come in due time

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hey peeps! Looks like anouther cape verde wave coming up. I was camping since monday, but i have been following the system on TWC when i can. Looking really good on those SAT pics that were posted. Nice band on the N side.

[Aric Dunn]

There is Aric but clearly this one is very close now to developing, the images sure look like banding is occuring right now so I fully expect them to up it to say 80% next time round, no real reason to hold back with it...

Models are if anything trending eastwards, starting to look like a real early recurve...

I understand its well on its way but it Does not matter if its close... unless the circulation is completely free of and boundaries they typically dont upgrade because the inflow and wind field is not entirely closed.

Oh...its closed. Is it completely circular? No...and its still part of the ITCZ....but it has a closed circulation of that there is no doubt.

Its also a recurver...I feel there is no doubt about that either.

well I can agree on being closed but there is still a trough attached and that is easily noticeable with some diverging flow E of the center. Im not deny or saying it could not be upgraded right now simply because there is nothing to inhibit it. All im doing is providing a reason to why the NHC may not upgrade. there have been many instances of such situations where they dont upgrade even inlight of the strong model support and organizational trends.

this a really bad attempt here to draw some streamlines on my laptop but its close enough and you get the idea.. lol

[KWT]

you should know better... whenever there is a trough attached to it they typically do not upgrade. and that trough is clearly still attached to the NE but its is weakening. I imagine they wait till morning. probably be 80% at 8 and then TD either at 8am or 11am.

Oh I agree with you on that one I'd go to 80% as well and just hold back simply because of where it is right now but I think its real close now and its clearly banding very nicely...I'd probably upgrade soon though, theres only so long that they should hold back on....

One big burst near the center would probably take this close to TS status probably overnight...

[wxman57]

No rush at all for NHC to upgrade, since it's no threat to land anytime soon, if ever. They'll watch it another 12-24 hours to see if the organization continues first. Good chance on an upgrade by 15Z tomorrow.

[Hurricane Andrew]

No rush at all for NHC to upgrade, since it's no threat to land anytime soon, if ever. They'll watch it another 12-24 hours to see if the organization continues first. Good chance on an upgrade by 15Z tomorrow.

I agree there. They waited with Colin, they'll wait with this one. They don't want to Make a Depression for nothing.

[cycloneye]

Thet will pull the trigger at 5 PM!!!!!!.

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AL, 06, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 25, 1008, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[KWT]

Yeah but that being said I think its pretty obvious at the moment its developing, its wrapping itself up very nicely.

At the very least the NHC will up to 80-90% IMO, no reason to hold back any less then that IMO given the presentation...

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, didn't expect that......
looks like WXman jinxed the idea of the trigger not being pulled today....

[KWT]

Good to see the NHC are not going to totally ignore a system that probably looks better then Colin and Bonnie ever did...

[canes04]

I'm still not buying the recurve like most of you guys are.

Yes we will have a Hurricane in the days to come and the models are currently showing
recurve. I do think it will feel the weakness and move wnw to nw, but it will not move far enough north to escape. We may see a slowdown late next week and get trapped under the building ridge.

I will pay more attention to models once we get an actual Storm.

[Brent]

Thet will pull the trigger at 5 PM!!!!!!.

BEGIN
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AL, 06, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 25, 1008, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Wow, I am shocked. I was thinking tomorrow morning.

[KWT]

The models are in total agreement and Climo argues for it as well...

If the models can't get this one right about a recurve...they may as well never get used again...nah if there is one dead certainty for a recurve this season...its this one as well as any 2nd system that comes right behind it...

[ConvergenceZone]

This morning when I woke up, it didn't look good at all and I was thinking maybe Tuesday it would form
I guess this is what makes the tropics so exciting....Things can change in a few hours time...

[wxman57]

Of course, soon as I say there's no rush to upgrade - they upgrade.

[KWT]

If you look at Aric's image above where he has drawn a rough image of the wind streamlines you can easily see why the NHC have upgraded it IMO...I can see why some people thought it'd take a little longer though as well to be fair but I have few doubts that if you placed this near land it'd have gotten upgraded, so good to see they aren't holding back too long this time round.

[Hurricane Andrew]

WOW. Fast upgrade. TD 6 at 5 o' clock! LOL.

I would think the wait one more D-Max. Oh well.

[Air Force Met]

well I can agree on being closed but there is still a trough attached and that is easily noticeable with some diverging flow E of the center. Im not deny or saying it could not be upgraded right now simply because there is nothing to inhibit it. All im doing is providing a reason to why the NHC may not upgrade. there have been many instances of such situations where they dont upgrade even inlight of the strong model support and organizational trends.

That trof is the ITCZ....

[thetruesms]

Of course, soon as I say there's no rush to upgrade - they upgrade.

Almost as quick as TD3/Bonnie, when I said they'd probably wait until the afternoon, and had the renumber pop up just a few minutes later

[Aric Dunn]

well that was un-expected for sure... but its not likes its going to dissipate.. lol