ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[ColinDelia]

Man, this sure came together since the 8 am ET TWO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[KWT]

Yeah exactly Aric, its in a pretty good set-up aloft so I think the NHC were a little bit quicker then they would be with systems like 93L where it looked like a TD but conditions were a little too marginal.

[JTE50]

Wow, I am shocked. I was thinking tomorrow morning.

That's what makes this interesting . . . you never can peg it all the time.

[HURAKAN]

I think I can finally get excited!!! lol

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like a TC now, wonder if they'll peg it a TD or TS?

[cycloneye]

When the first advisory is out, anyone who is going to post it, make a thread for advisories so we can have those confined to a thread separated from this main discussion thread.

[lester]

Looks like a TC now, wonder if they'll peg it a TD or TS?

Tropical Depression @ 25 kts.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looks like a TC now, wonder if they'll peg it a TD or TS?

TD in best track.

[KWT]

Yeah Hurakan we finally may have a decent deep tropical cyclone come out of the tropics after a rather dull period in that respect...I see no reason why this can't ramp up to a hurricane though it may not be too quick simply because of its evolutionary type...a large gyre tends to take a little time to get going.

[HurricaneBelle]

NHC likes this as a cat 2 in 4-5 days:

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 21.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 24.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

[summersquall]

TD 6 as of the 5pm advisory.

[abajan]

No rush at all for NHC to upgrade, since it's no threat to land anytime soon, if ever. They'll watch it another 12-24 hours to see if the organization continues first. Good chance on an upgrade by 15Z tomorrow.

Well, I for one think a spade should be called a spade, regardless of the threat to land. I'm rather picky that way.

[mvtrucking]

So most everyone agrees that TD06(soon) will re-curve? (99.9%?)

[cycloneye]

[Brent]

THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS...SHOWING A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS.

[KWT]

Very agressive from the NHC considering we have just a TD, they must be pretty confident on this becoming a pretty strong hurricane down the line...whilst I'm not sure about a major hurricane no reason why it can't happen I suppose given the amount of sea it has to cover.

Maybe this one will be like hurricane Cindy from 1999 in terms of track, though that became a hurricane rather far east.

[Macrocane]

How exciting! Now this is a surprise, I was out of home for a couple of hours and now I find TD 6 and TD 9E, it seems like the tropics are awakening.

[KWT]

That track looks in superb agreement with the models as you'd expect, but obviously if it were to get further to the west Bermuda would still need to watch it if the troughing is a little overdone...

NHC still shows the scale of change though if this is to be anything other then a recurve!

[cycloneye]

The ACE units will go up bigtime with this system, maybe getting around 20-25.

[wxman57]

Could easily get a strong Cat 3 out of this, maybe even a Cat 4. NHC is being just a little conservative with the intensity forecast. I do think it might track a bit left of the NHC track at first, but it will very likely stay well NE of the Caribbean and even east of Bermuda. Not a 100% guarantee of recurvature east of 60W, though, maybe 90%. There's the question of timing of the ridge off the East U.S. Coast building eastward. If the storm moves more slowly and the ridge builds east faster, then it could block the recurve.