ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[terrapintransit]

Which one of these models doesn't belong....we hope..

[Ivanhater]

Things have just got interesting...

The HWRF shows exactly what could happen if the system does indeed track far enough west though thats still a long way from proving what will happen.

But...my mind is now clear of any certainty of recurving yet again...KWT is now totally open minded

Took a little work, but we gotcha on the fence again..welcome back

[ronjon]

oh no, xcool22, is the 18z HWRF showing a bend back to the SW at the end of that run?

[KWT]

By the way the GFS ensemble that turns back west quite north is what would happen if we were to see strong upper high develop over Canada...thats the worst case guys because if it can bend a system at 35-40N back west, then it'll have no problem surpressing a more southerly system.

Anyway the GFS ensembles are still recurving further east though some do break past 60W. Also note how the GFS operational run is a southerly outlier...but thats probably the higher resolution at play.

By the way Ivanhater if this does reach the east coast, my medium range idea of a recurve busts but I score good points on noticing the long term pattern...way back on the 5-6th of August I did pinpoint the 20-25th August to see development of TCs and the threat of a heightened risk to the E.coast...haha how funny would that be, a 15-20 day forecast doing better then some musings from 7-8 days out!

[Ivanhater]

I believe those GFS ensemble runs are off the 12z run, not the 18z. The white line being the operational is certainly off the 12z run.

[ronjon]

Here's the 18Z HWRF - not as strong as some of the other intensity models.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010082118-six06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Vortex]

HWRF, interesting at the end for sure. Does anyone have the GFDN?

[ronjon]

I think the other key factor, KWT and IH, is the speed of that mid-atlantic low ejecting off to the NE. In the HWRF run, that low is booking off to the NE at a rapid clip.

[terrapintransit]

HWRF, interesting at the end for sure. Does anyone have the GFDN?

It doesn't appear that it's going to recurve at the end

[KWT]

Ah there is your reason it doesn't recurve on that run, its a much weaker run then probably even the operational GFS run was.

GFS ensembles are on thier way out by the way...lets see what it does with it...at 72hrs heading close to NW with the mean.
Also develops a system thast hits the CV Islands...

[Ivanhater]

I think the other key factor, KWT and IH, is the speed of that mid-atlantic low ejecting off to the NE. In the HWRF run, that low is booking off to the NE at a rapid clip.

Good point Ron....The smell is in the air, and the models are sniffing it. Nothing is certain right now imo.

[KWT]

GFS ensembles still recurve pretty far east:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal192.gif

East of 60W on the mean....but note the little un to the south that develops and hits the CV Islands in just 3 days time...and a few runs do bend back westwards again right near the end...

[Vortex]

For those that are unaware of the differences.

1)GFDL is run off the GFS

2)GFDN is run off the Navy Nogaps.


I'm looking for the GFDN as I think the synoptics look very reasonable on the Nogaps per 12/18Z mid-range.

[ronjon]

GFS ensembles still recurve pretty far east:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal192.gif

East of 60W on the mean....but note the little un to the south that develops and hits the CV Islands in just 3 days time...and a few runs do bend back westwards again right near the end...

KWT, you can see what a close call it'll be in the GFS ensemble run with the ridging filling in the weakness pretty fast. 12Z Euro ensemble also showing the same thing - a close call.

[xcool22]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


18z GFDL

[KWT]

Well GFDL develops this one much quicker and stronger then the HWRF and so the system recurves much faster then on most other runs.

Could quite possibly the GFDL right bias at play here though.

[terrapintransit]

More ensemble models are trending west...

[hurricaneCW]

Well my mind is still set on a definite recurve. Although the slower it develops, the better the odds of a further west track. I think it's going to take a few days to get going. The banding is great but there is quite a bit of dry air embedded within the circulation so it'll take a couple of days to mix that out completely. As of right now I say:

70% of a recurve At or East of 60W

20% of a recurve between 70-60W, threatening Bermuda

5% of a recurve At or West of 70W, but not directly impacting the U.S, risk to Canada

5% of an East Coast hit from the Carolinas northward.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Hmmm, look at many of those lines bending to the left.

Code: Select all

1 KWBC 220028
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0028 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX (AL062010) 20100822 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100822  0000   100822  1200   100823  0000   100823  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.2N  32.3W   11.8N  33.4W   13.0N  34.7W   14.6N  36.9W
BAMD    11.2N  32.3W   11.9N  33.9W   12.6N  35.6W   13.5N  37.5W
BAMM    11.2N  32.3W   11.9N  33.7W   13.0N  35.2W   14.4N  37.5W
LBAR    11.2N  32.3W   11.8N  34.5W   12.7N  37.4W   13.4N  40.8W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          38KTS          49KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          38KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100824  0000   100825  0000   100826  0000   100827  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.5N  40.1W   20.0N  47.9W   21.1N  54.2W   21.2N  56.5W
BAMD    14.7N  39.7W   18.6N  44.2W   23.4N  48.2W   27.8N  50.5W
BAMM    16.1N  40.4W   19.7N  47.1W   21.8N  52.5W   23.2N  55.3W
LBAR    14.1N  44.4W   15.7N  51.0W   17.2N  54.4W   25.1N  55.3W
SHIP        60KTS          78KTS          84KTS          84KTS
DSHP        60KTS          78KTS          84KTS          84KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.2N LONCUR =  32.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  10.6N LONM12 =  31.0W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  10.4N LONM24 =  29.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Riptide]

The extrapolated motion appears to be a little screwed up. TD 6 is still traveling WNW if not W.