ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[supercane]

Continued organizational trend evident on SSMI:

[KWT]

Pretty devoid of any convection over the center, but banding looks great

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html

Yeah and probably will continue to have convection issues whilst it has this sort of presentation I suspect, but I can't imagine it'll be long before it tries to tighten up the inner circulation a little further.

Needs watching, for the first time the models do have me a little concerned for at least SE Canada and NE States.

[TwisterFanatic]

I will go with............................I

[supercane]

Hey peeps, lets have a mini poll with the question, How strong will this system will get?

I will go with I.

A-Tropical Storm, 60 mph
B-Tropical Storm,70 mph
C-Cat 1,75 mph
D-Cat 1,85 mph
E-Cat 2,95 mph
F-Cat 2,105 mph
G-Cat 3 115 mph
H-Cat 3,125 mph
I-Cat 4, 135 mph
J-Cat 4-145 mph
K-Cat 5-156 mph+
L-Stays as TD Six

Based on the latest SHIPS output from 18Z:

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL952010 08/21/10 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 48 59 70 79 86 87 87 86 88
V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 48 59 70 79 86 87 87 86 88
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 51 62 73 82 85 85 83 81

SHEAR (KT) 13 15 14 16 20 13 10 9 7 16 12 13 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -5 -1 0 -2 1 -1 0 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 62 61 58 58 55 64 52 290 284 237 221 228 209
SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.7 28.2 28.5 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 141 140 139 135 132 134 136 135 140 143 142
ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 136 136 136 135 133 136 135 130 130 127 124

<snip>

** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 08/21/10 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

<snip>

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

I'll also pick I-Cat 4, 135 mph

[CrazyC83]

I pick J - 145 mph. Pressure peak around 935mb.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is very easy to find and it is about to start firing some convection over it as the low clouds are beginning to thicken..

[KWT]

Yeah Aric, what do you think about the short term motion?

I ask you because I think you may well be the best out there in terms of predicting what happens in the short term with developing systems...and yes thats even including the pro mets, as good as they are!

[ColinDelia]

I'll take G 1/2 in the poll, 120 mph

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah Aric, what do you think about the short term motion?

I ask you because I think you may well be the best out there in terms of predicting what happens in the short term with developing systems...and yes thats even including the pro mets, as good as they are!

well the very short term. we should see a quick jog to the WNW to nw while it breaks from the ITCZ and the westerly flow. This should begin to take place over the next 12 hours. the next 36 to 48 hours it should stay about 280 to 290 at most. after that it will depend on how much of a weakness develops.

[Brent]

Hey peeps, lets have a mini poll with the question, How strong will this system will get?

I will go with I.

A-Tropical Storm, 60 mph
B-Tropical Storm,70 mph
C-Cat 1,75 mph
D-Cat 1,85 mph
E-Cat 2,95 mph
F-Cat 2,105 mph
G-Cat 3 115 mph
H-Cat 3,125 mph
I-Cat 4, 135 mph
J-Cat 4-145 mph
K-Cat 5-156 mph+
L-Stays as TD Six

J

[ROCK]

Pretty devoid of any convection over the center, but banding looks great

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html

true... see the sinking air diving into it from the north east and out in front of it though.....banding more intense from the W and S....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rgb.html


easy to spot with the low clouds steaming in from the north...one of the reasons I think organization will be delayed somewhat....JMO

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty devoid of any convection over the center, but banding looks great

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html

true... see the sinking air diving into it from the north east and out in front of it though.....banding more intense from the W and S....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rgb.html


easy to spot with the low clouds steaming in from the north...one of the reasons I think organization will be delayed somewhat....JMO

The low level clouds are thickening ... we will see convection build over the center very shortly..

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD Special Feature discussion:

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CENTERED NEAR 11.0N 32.1W AT 21/2100
UTC OR 500 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING
W-NW AT 08 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE
RESIDES ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 21N20W WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM THE CENTER TO 15N39W. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
PROVIDE FOR MINIMAL WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN
25W-41W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[KWT]

What is quite interesting is the HWRF doesn't really strengthen this one at all quickly, doesn't get to a TS till 48hrs time but that looks too slow by quite some way IMO.

[dixiebreeze]

For the poll, I'll say "I" though "J" wouldn't surprise me.

[paintplaye]

[UpTheCreek]

I'm going to be the oddball here. I don't think it'll reach Cat 3, so I am voting F.

[alan1961]

G-Cat 3 115mph

[abajan]

...
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/paststorms.gif
...

Hurricane Dog
Always crack me up.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps, lets have a mini poll with the question, How strong will this system will get?

I will go with I.

A-Tropical Storm, 60 mph
B-Tropical Storm,70 mph
C-Cat 1,75 mph
D-Cat 1,85 mph
E-Cat 2,95 mph
F-Cat 2,105 mph
G-Cat 3 115 mph
H-Cat 3,125 mph
I-Cat 4, 135 mph
J-Cat 4-145 mph
K-Cat 5-156 mph+
L-Stays as TD Six

For those who missed the post of the poll and want to participate, here it is.