ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[KWT]

I'm going to be the oddball here. I don't think it'll reach Cat 3, so I am voting F.

Nah nothing oddball about it, anything could really happen in terms of strength forecast to be honest at this stage!

[CrazyC83]

21/2345 UTC 11.3N 32.3W T1.5/1.5 06L -- Atlantic

No change yet.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082200, , BEST, 0, 112N, 323W, 25, 1008, TD


ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Remains as TD Six.

[wxman57]

Let's take the poll responses to the proper thread, please. Keep on topic.

[cycloneye]

Latest ASCAT pass.

[KWT]

Hmmm circulation looks rather elongated there Cycloneye....center isn't totally well established yet according to that.

[Macrocane]

This is to my amateur eyes the best looking system since Alex, it just needs to wrap more convection around the center but it looks good although it has not become any better organized since the first advisory neither any worse, let's see if D-max helps it.

[cycloneye]

Hmmm circulation looks rather elongated there Cycloneye....center isn't totally well established yet according to that.

And the more time it takes to organize into a Tropical Storm, the more west it goes with all the implications that it has down the road that we have been discussing with the model scenarios.

[SoupBone]

Let's take the poll responses to the proper thread, please. Keep on topic.

Hey peeps, lets have a mini poll with the question, How strong will this system will get?

I will go with I.

A-Tropical Storm, 60 mph
B-Tropical Storm,70 mph
C-Cat 1,75 mph
D-Cat 1,85 mph
E-Cat 2,95 mph
F-Cat 2,105 mph
G-Cat 3 115 mph
H-Cat 3,125 mph
I-Cat 4, 135 mph
J-Cat 4-145 mph
K-Cat 5-156 mph+
L-Stays as TD Six

Mod against mod in a battle royal to the death! J/K

A bit confusing though...

I still vote G-Cat 3 115 mph...I'll say that this slow organization definitely has me worried. This has happened plenty of times before where a fish has been shown in model runs only for things to change and head further west.

[gatorcane]

Looks like TD 6 continues to track just north of due west. No sign of really gaining lattitude yet, I would assume we should see this soon because all the models already have it moving WNW right now, which it is not.

[cpdaman]

i say E 95 mph. (i would say 100mph to be exact)

large...long time to develop .....then some shear

but plenty of swell.

[cycloneye]

The latest image at 045z shows some convection building near / over the center.

[Aric Dunn]

As expected convection is starting to fire around the center..

[HurrMark]

Probably J...this might be even stronger, though. Nothing but favorable conditions for a long time. Good thing this is probably a clear fish...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[blp]

12Z Euro NAO forecast a little more agressive towards the positive than the 00Z

00Z


12Z

[ROCK]

I see convection building NEAR the center but with that last ASCAT pass the center is not wound up as one would think...still has a ways to go...

[lester]

Right now based on the models/satellite imagery I would give this a ...
100% chance of being a TS
70% chance of being a hurricane at some point
50% chance of being a major hurricane

based off the models:
near 0% chance of a gulf coast threat
low chance of being an east coast threat
medium chance of a bermuda threat
high chance of being a fish

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[floridasun78]

Right now based on the models/satellite imagery I would give this a ...
100% chance of being a TS
70% chance of being a hurricane at some point
50% chance of being a major hurricane

based off the models:
near 0% chance of a gulf coast threat
low chance of being an east coast threat
medium chance of a bermuda threat
high chance of being a fish

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

if your forecast wrong this fish i will come ask you were did forecast go wrong ok because you sure this fish

[Ivanhater]