ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[KWT]

Whilst there are more ensembles trending westwards I'd still like to see one of the operational runs from the globals do the same again.

Probably still a more likely chance of a recurve but now there is at least some model support for this getting further west then orginally thought, though it seems there is still little to no support just yet for a US threat...but things can trend yet further obviously.

[hurricaneCW]

I think the models initially initialized this too far south. It was 10.6N before, than 10.8, now 11.2N. I believe the center was generally around 11N since this morning anyway so I'd say the best motion would be a 280 heading.

[Aric Dunn]

The strength of the HWRF is not going to affect its track much at that range if its a vertically stacked system. whats important is that its slower and thus farther west allowing the large ridge to build north of it. same thing with the GFS except the gfs is faster and gets too far north to not feel the westerlies. the latest surface analysis does not bode well for the model that have a strong trough develop as there are very weak steering over the western atlantic and the trough over the ohio valley that was supposed dig se a little and help pick up the system is not digging its not becoming anymore amplified and if thats going to continue then the ridge will likely be able to build in prior to re-curve. the EURO has a weak trough and a large ridge very similar to HWRF and GFS but for some reason it has a NW motion now and gets caught by the first trough way east. I would imagine the EURO at the 00Z will keep the same progression but will have a more WNW motion initially and may trend much farther west. either way things are very close by no means is a re-curve 50 than 50/50 at the moment.

[ROCK]

Things have just got interesting...

The HWRF shows exactly what could happen if the system does indeed track far enough west though thats still a long way from proving what will happen.

But...my mind is now clear of any certainty of recurving yet again...KWT is now totally open minded

your not sticking to your guns KWT!!!! welcome to the ECM Brotherhood...

[ROCK]

I doubt it rock, this one had a very large looking broad circulation, that dry air will stay shielded away, though a large system will take a little while to get going though so its swings and roundabouts!

That being said remember when I said the one thing that would change my mind on recurvature would be a strong E.Candian upper High developing...and the models are slowly trending that way...

PS the ECM was *perfect* with where it started...got it spot on if you've seen the high resolution map, someone from easternuswx posted a little zoomed in picture which showed the ECM had a perfect starting point.

KWT, look at the northern flank...its is aiding in the waning of convection attm....pretty obvious to me...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[KWT]

The strength of the HWRF is not going to affect its track much at that range if its a vertically stacked system. whats important is that its slower and thus farther west allowing the large ridge to build north of it. same thing with the GFS except the gfs is faster and gets too far north to not feel the westerlies. the latest surface analysis does not bode well for the model that have a strong trough develop as there are very weak steering over the western atlantic and the trough over the ohio valley that was supposed dig se a little and help pick up the system is not digging its not becoming anymore amplified and if thats going to continue then the ridge will likely be able to build in prior to re-curve. the EURO has a weak trough and a large ridge very similar to HWRF and GFS but for some reason it has a NW motion now and gets caught by the first trough way east. I would imagine the EURO at the 00Z will keep the same progression but will have a more WNW motion initially and may trend much farther west. either way things are very close by no means is a re-curve 50 than 50/50 at the moment.

Whilst true remember a deep system will feel a trough stronger anyway and there is some rather weak troughing occuring right now to the north of this one...so the GFDL bombs this one and it feels the current troughing way south and that lifts it out NW and at a faster rate.

IMO the reason the HWRF is slower is exactly because it is weaker, it doesn't feel the tug as strong and so it misses the
connection, whils the GFDL bombs and gets the connection early on and its recurve city from there.

ps, Rock, note how much 'white' there is between the center and the dry air, its got a decent amount of moisture to work with.

[ROCK]

The strength of the HWRF is not going to affect its track much at that range if its a vertically stacked system. whats important is that its slower and thus farther west allowing the large ridge to build north of it. same thing with the GFS except the gfs is faster and gets too far north to not feel the westerlies. the latest surface analysis does not bode well for the model that have a strong trough develop as there are very weak steering over the western atlantic and the trough over the ohio valley that was supposed dig se a little and help pick up the system is not digging its not becoming anymore amplified and if thats going to continue then the ridge will likely be able to build in prior to re-curve. the EURO has a weak trough and a large ridge very similar to HWRF and GFS but for some reason it has a NW motion now and gets caught by the first trough way east. I would imagine the EURO at the 00Z will keep the same progression but will have a more WNW motion initially and may trend much farther west. either way things are very close by no means is a re-curve 50 than 50/50 at the moment.

Whilst true remember a deep system will feel a trough stronger anyway and there is some rather weak troughing occuring right now to the north of this one...so the GFDL bombs this one and it feels the current troughing way south and that lifts it out NW and at a faster rate.

IMO the reason the HWRF is slower is exactly because it is weaker, it doesn't feel the tug as strong and so it misses the connection, whils the GFDL bombs and gets the connection early on and its recurve city from there.

that ECM run 3 runs ago might have not been out to lunch as some thought....

[Aric Dunn]

The strength of the HWRF is not going to affect its track much at that range if its a vertically stacked system. whats important is that its slower and thus farther west allowing the large ridge to build north of it. same thing with the GFS except the gfs is faster and gets too far north to not feel the westerlies. the latest surface analysis does not bode well for the model that have a strong trough develop as there are very weak steering over the western atlantic and the trough over the ohio valley that was supposed dig se a little and help pick up the system is not digging its not becoming anymore amplified and if thats going to continue then the ridge will likely be able to build in prior to re-curve. the EURO has a weak trough and a large ridge very similar to HWRF and GFS but for some reason it has a NW motion now and gets caught by the first trough way east. I would imagine the EURO at the 00Z will keep the same progression but will have a more WNW motion initially and may trend much farther west. either way things are very close by no means is a re-curve 50 than 50/50 at the moment.

Whilst true remember a deep system will feel a trough stronger anyway and there is some rather weak troughing occuring right now to the north of this one...so the GFDL bombs this one and it feels the current troughing way south and that lifts it out NW and at a faster rate.

IMO the reason the HWRF is slower is exactly because it is weaker, it doesn't feel the tug as strong and so it misses the
connection, whils the GFDL bombs and gets the connection early on and its recurve city from there.

ps, Rock, note how much 'white' there is between the center and the dry air, its got a decent amount of moisture to work with.

actually it seems the HWRF takes longer to get away from the ITCZ.

[KWT]

I still don't think its a fluke that the HWRF and the eCM when it bent west both had fairly weak systems compared to what the others have.

That being said if that were to occur and it did bend west before say 30N, then things would get real interesting for sure....the HWRF solution sure would suggest this one needs to be watched closely!

[supercane]

The extrapolated motion appears to be a little screwed up. TD 6 is still traveling WNW if not W.

I think the models initially initialized this too far south. It was 10.6N before, than 10.8, now 11.2N. I believe the center was generally around 11N since this morning anyway so I'd say the best motion would be a 280 heading.

Not per the best track:
AL, 06, 2010082200, , BEST, 0, 112N, 323W, 25, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 300, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, S,
AL, 06, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 25, 1008, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 300, 75, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, S,

The current 00Z is actually well supported by both conventional and microwave satellite imagery.

[gatorcane]

Hmm, what is going on with the HWRF and the bend west? I have to agree, it's because it is not deepening it as much as some of the other models.

In that HWRF run you can clearly see the trough over Eastern North America pulling out into NewFoundland, with ridging taking its place.

[ROCK]

The strength of the HWRF is not going to affect its track much at that range if its a vertically stacked system. whats important is that its slower and thus farther west allowing the large ridge to build north of it. same thing with the GFS except the gfs is faster and gets too far north to not feel the westerlies. the latest surface analysis does not bode well for the model that have a strong trough develop as there are very weak steering over the western atlantic and the trough over the ohio valley that was supposed dig se a little and help pick up the system is not digging its not becoming anymore amplified and if thats going to continue then the ridge will likely be able to build in prior to re-curve. the EURO has a weak trough and a large ridge very similar to HWRF and GFS but for some reason it has a NW motion now and gets caught by the first trough way east. I would imagine the EURO at the 00Z will keep the same progression but will have a more WNW motion initially and may trend much farther west. either way things are very close by no means is a re-curve 50 than 50/50 at the moment.

Whilst true remember a deep system will feel a trough stronger anyway and there is some rather weak troughing occuring right now to the north of this one...so the GFDL bombs this one and it feels the current troughing way south and that lifts it out NW and at a faster rate.

IMO the reason the HWRF is slower is exactly because it is weaker, it doesn't feel the tug as strong and so it misses the
connection, whils the GFDL bombs and gets the connection early on and its recurve city from there.

ps, Rock, note how much 'white' there is between the center and the dry air, its got a decent amount of moisture to work with.

yeah, I see the moisture envelope...but my point is, if its dealing with issues, the longer it takes to organize and more westward it goes....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

wnw to west for awhile....

[ROCK]

if the HWRF (which has horrible this year btw) is seeing a bend back in the long range that is very telling. Last nights CMC in the long range showed a similar bend at 196hr...but with a deeper storm so it didnt matter....

[Emmett_Brown]

Euro ensemble shows a huge H500 ridge over the ECONUS in 7-8 day range (sorry, no link) The ridge it depicts seems strong enough that it could send a storm W/SW. This run reminds me a bit of Ike to be honest... I could see this missing the US to the S if this pattern materialized. HWRF appears to have a slight W/SW component at the end of its run also.

[Dean4Storms]

I think the HWRF has done better than the GFDL so far this year. The GFDL has been in LaLa Land, it had TD5 as a hurricane headed for LA when it was in the SE Gulf and on TD5's second go around kept deepening Remnant TD5 into a strong TS.

I don't trust the GFDL with intensity at all.

[SFLcane]

Still think this recurves into the open Atlantic but the most recent trends with the models could make things a bit interesting for bermuda.

[Ivanhater]

Euro ensemble shows a huge H500 ridge over the ECONUS in 7-8 day range (sorry, no link) The ridge it depicts seems strong enough that it could send a storm W/SW. This run reminds me a bit of Ike to be honest... I could see this missing the US to the S if this pattern materialized. HWRF appears to have a slight W/SW component at the end of its run also.

Here it is..I posted it a couple pages back...the two low pressure areas represent the split in the ensemble members with some getting trapped under the ridge building off the East coast

[blp]

Euro ensemble shows a huge H500 ridge over the ECONUS in 7-8 day range (sorry, no link) The ridge it depicts seems strong enough that it could send a storm W/SW. This run reminds me a bit of Ike to be honest... I could see this missing the US to the S if this pattern materialized. HWRF appears to have a slight W/SW component at the end of its run also.

I posted the below on the discussion. It does look the Euro is gradually strengthening the ridge more with each run.

12Z Euro NAO forecast a little more agressive towards the positive than the 00Z

00Z


12Z

[ronjon]

Still think this recurves into the open Atlantic but the most recent trends with the models could make things a bit interesting for bermuda.

Perhaps, but we all still have to remember it'll take this storm 7 days to get to 60W. Alot can happen in the upper air pattern, speed of TD6, and intensity to make an open atlantic recurve not at all certain.

[ronjon]

blp, the GFS ensemble NAO forecast is even more agressive with the positive NAO.