EPAC: Ex-Tropical Depression FRANK

[KWT]

Should be a storm probably fairly soon I'd imagine, maybe in the next 6-12hrs providing current organisational trends carry on.

[supercane]

Steadily increasing T numbers from SSD:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
21/2345 UTC 13.8N 93.6W T1.5/1.5 09E
21/1745 UTC 13.1N 93.3W T1.0/1.0 93E

[Chacor]

Very interesting discussion from Beven.

WTPZ44 KNHC 220244
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL
CONVECTIVE FEATURE HAS FORMED WITH SOME OUTER BANDING. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW
IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE NORTH.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A SOMEWHAT ERRATIC 270/3. THE CYCLONE
REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT...AND IN THE SHORT-TERM
SOME ADDITIONAL ERRATIC MOTION MAY BE SUPERIMPOSED ON A WESTWARD
DRIFT. AFTER 24 HOURS OR SO...A BUILDING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE
GFS AND THE HWRF SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING ONSHORE NEAR OR OVER THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHILE THE UKMET HAS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK ALONG OR CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE FORECASTS A MOTION PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE OF...THE
COAST OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO AND
IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST
THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 48-60 HOURS. THE SHIPS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX HAS A 85-90 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OF
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND A 40-45 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 40 KT OF INTENSIFICATION. ON THE OTHER HAND...ANY MOTION
THAT BRINGS THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WOULD LIKELY
PREVENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ALSO...THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH KEEPS
THE CENTER OFFSHORE...DOES NOT FORECAST HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THESE THINGS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
DOES NOT CALL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. INSTEAD...IT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE BELOW...THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY IF THE DEPRESSION TRACKS CLOSE TO
LAND OR BECOMES LARGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 13.8N 93.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 13.8N 94.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 13.8N 95.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 13.8N 96.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 13.9N 97.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 14.5N 100.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 15.5N 102.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 17.0N 104.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Interesting that SHIPS going for RI but GFDL doesn't even make it a hurricane. And a big spread in the models on track.

[bob rulz]

I would trust SHIPS more than GFDL with the intensity forecasts.

That is an incredible percentage chance for rapid intensification!

[srainhoutx]

Yeah, this one may put on a show. The problem is the proximity to land. The track could be worrisome as well for the folks along the MX coastline IMO.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[bob rulz]

I would say it's very close to being a tropical storm based on the latest loops if it's not there already.

[supercane]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 220535
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010

...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 94.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ WESTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE
CHACAHUA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A
SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[supercane]

Solid circulation but winds not particularly high, especially for upgrade to TS:

[Cyclenall]

I would trust SHIPS more than GFDL with the intensity forecasts.

That is an incredible percentage chance for rapid intensification!

It's not far from Rick's SHIPS RI %'s. I agree I would put more stock in the SHIPS index than the GFDL this time around because I doubt its ability to handle 9-E properly.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A SOMEWHAT ERRATIC 270/3. THE CYCLONE
REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT...AND IN THE SHORT-TERM
SOME ADDITIONAL ERRATIC MOTION MAY BE SUPERIMPOSED ON A WESTWARD
DRIFT.

No .

THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX HAS A 85-90 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OF
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND A 40-45 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 40 KT OF INTENSIFICATION. ON THE OTHER HAND...ANY MOTION
THAT BRINGS THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WOULD LIKELY
PREVENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ALSO...THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH KEEPS
THE CENTER OFFSHORE...DOES NOT FORECAST HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THESE THINGS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
DOES NOT CALL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. INSTEAD...IT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE BELOW...THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.

I think this will end up being a mistake. Another point is land interaction doesn't really deter RI if it's center is reasonably off the coast so I don't consider that a problem with 9-E.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD...NEAR TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 94.7W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ WESTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE
CHACAHUA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR....AND A
SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING PARALLEL TO
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TODAY OR MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[supercane]

Best track suggests upgrade to TS Frank at 8AM PDT update:

EP, 09, 2010082212, , BEST, 0, 139N, 950W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1008, 225, 30, 45, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FRANK, M,
EP, 09, 2010082206, , BEST, 0, 139N, 944W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 30, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, M,

System also now listed as Frank on NRL site.

[supercane]

Looking good with banding around 3/4 of circulation on Aqua microwave pass earlier:

[supercane]

Latest vis:

[supercane]

Code: Select all

408   
WHXX01 KMIA 221240 
CHGE77 
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1240 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010 
   
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. 
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. 
   
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR 
   
TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK (EP092010) 20100822 1200 UTC 
   
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS... 
        100822  1200   100823  0000   100823  1200   100824  0000 
   
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 
BAMS    13.9N  95.0W   14.3N  96.1W   14.5N  97.1W   14.8N  98.0W 
BAMD    13.9N  95.0W   14.3N  96.2W   14.5N  97.8W   14.8N  99.4W 
BAMM    13.9N  95.0W   14.5N  96.2W   14.9N  97.6W   15.2N  99.0W 
LBAR    13.9N  95.0W   14.3N  96.7W   15.2N  98.7W   16.1N 101.1W 
SHIP        35KTS          45KTS          53KTS          59KTS 
DSHP        35KTS          45KTS          53KTS          59KTS 
   
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS... 
        100824  1200   100825  1200   100826  1200   100827  1200 
   
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 
BAMS    15.1N  98.6W   16.1N  99.1W   17.1N  99.5W   18.8N 101.3W 
BAMD    14.8N 101.1W   14.9N 104.4W   15.2N 106.4W   16.6N 107.9W 
BAMM    15.3N 100.4W   15.5N 102.7W   16.3N 104.0W   18.0N 105.2W 
LBAR    16.9N 103.7W   18.6N 109.1W   20.0N 113.5W   20.6N 115.9W 
SHIP        64KTS          70KTS          64KTS          63KTS 
DSHP        64KTS          70KTS          64KTS          63KTS 
   
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... 
LATCUR =  13.9N LONCUR =  95.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   6KT 
LATM12 =  13.9N LONM12 =  93.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   5KT 
LATM24 =  13.9N LONM24 =  93.0W 
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT 
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   M 
RD34NE =   30NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  30NM 
   
$$ 
NNNN 

Code: Select all

                    *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *       FRANK  EP092010  08/22/10  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    35    40    45    48    53    59    64    70    70    67    64    62    63
V (KT) LAND       35    40    45    48    53    59    64    70    70    67    64    62    63
V (KT) LGE mod    35    38    41    45    48    53    56    57    58    60    62    66    69

SHEAR (KT)         9    14    15    21    21    24    21    21    17    16    13    17    15
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -2    -2     0    -2    -1     1     3     0     0    -1    -4    -2
SHEAR DIR         61    75    67    81    90    75    87    74    79    85    91    93    98
SST (C)         29.7  29.5  29.3  29.1  29.0  29.0  29.0  28.9  29.0  29.0  29.0  28.6  28.2
POT. INT. (KT)   160   158   156   155   153   153   153   152   153   153   153   149   145
200 MB T (C)   -53.5 -52.7 -51.9 -52.4 -52.8 -51.5 -52.2 -51.1 -51.9 -50.9 -51.6 -50.5 -51.5
TH_E DEV (C)       5     7     7     6     5     8     5     9     5     8     5     8     4
700-500 MB RH     86    82    86    83    81    79    78    78    78    78    74    76    76
GFS VTEX (KT)      9     9    10     9    10     9    10    12    11     9     7     6     6
850 MB ENV VOR    89    71    70    70    67    50    57    57    59    52    53    69    71
200 MB DIV       106    74    81   112   112   114    99    97    73    63    33    70    59
LAND (KM)        232   211   200   197   200   215   232   243   233   228   260   283   349
LAT (DEG N)     13.9  13.9  13.9  14.0  14.1  14.3  14.7  15.2  15.9  16.4  16.9  17.4  18.0
LONG(DEG W)     95.0  95.6  96.1  96.9  97.6  99.0 100.3 101.7 102.9 104.2 105.4 106.7 108.0
STM SPEED (KT)     6     5     6     7     7     7     7     7     7     6     7     7     6
HEAT CONTENT      40    36    26    12     6     2     9    21    28    31    24    21     4

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/  6      CX,CY:  -5/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  520  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   9.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  97.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   3.   9.  15.  21.  26.  29.  32.  34.  35.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   1.   1.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   9.  11.  12.  13.  13.  12.  11.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -5.  -7.  -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   0.   1.   1.   3.   5.   4.   2.  -1.  -3.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   2.   1.   0.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.   2.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           5.  10.  13.  18.  24.  29.  35.  35.  32.  29.  27.  28.

   ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010      FRANK 08/22/10  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  1.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  15.9 Range: 15.2 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  97.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 121.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.8
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  83.0 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.4
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   9.8 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.2
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  24.0 Range:  0.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.3
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    39% is   3.3 times the sample mean(11.8%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010      FRANK 08/22/10  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##    NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED   

[cycloneye]

WTPZ24 KNHC 221447
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
1500 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ WESTWARD TO PUERTO ANGEL
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE
GALEANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 95.3W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 95.3W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 95.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.1N 96.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 97.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.6N 99.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.1N 100.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 17.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 95.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 221458
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND 1200 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE 2.5
FROM SAB AND 3.0 FROM TAFB. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS. THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS
SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT FRANK IS LOCATED IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THIS...COMBINED WITH WARM WATERS AND A VERY MOIST
LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERE SUGGEST THAT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD TEMPER
INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD
THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AN 0804 UTC AMSR-E PASS AND 1201 UTC SSM/I PASS WERE HELPFUL IN
LOCATING THE CENTER...WHICH IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
270/6...AS THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CORE
OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FRANK TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN A DAY OR SO...AND REMAIN ON THAT HEADING
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW CLOSE FRANK WILL GET TO THE COAST
OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

GIVEN THE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK FORECAST...A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST. BASED ON
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST ERRORS...THERE IS
ABOUT A 20 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
AFFECTING ANY INDIVIDUAL POINT LOCATION WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 14.0N 95.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 14.1N 96.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 14.2N 97.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 14.6N 99.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 15.1N 100.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 17.5N 106.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 18.5N 109.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

Looks like it's RI-ing.

[KWT]

Looks to me to be about 50kts already, its wrapping up very well indeed, no doubts this becomes a hurricane...unlike Td6 at the moment!

[CrazyC83]

Agreed this looks to be going into rapid intensification and so close to land too. I would not be surprised if an eye is trying to form.