EPAC: EX Tropical Depression EIGHT-E

[supercane]

25 kts of shear will do that to a storm. Map from UW-CIMSS with vis sat, obs, shear, forecast track.

[KWT]

Its a neat looking naked swirl though to be fair, plenty of capped low level clouds working thier way round in the LLC but not alot else there.

[srainhoutx]

Great images supercane!

[Aquawind]

Beautiful little swirl on the loop.

[lester]

WTPZ33 KNHC 210236
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010

...DEPRESSION LOSING ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 110.3W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WTPZ43 KNHC 210236
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS COMPRISED OF A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A DISORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM SAB AND
25 KT FROM TAFB...AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS BACK NEAR 18Z SHOWED 30 KT
WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A
COMBINATION OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK AND MODERATE-STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 24 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 72 HR.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. WEAK
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC SHOULD FIRST STEER THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 20.2N 110.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 20.6N 111.1W 25 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 20.9N 112.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 22/1200Z 21.0N 113.1W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 23/0000Z 21.0N 114.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

Not long left for it.

WTPZ43 KNHC 210834
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS ONLY PRODUCING A SMALL SHAPELESS AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE COMBINED EFFECTS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND
DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9...SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
DEPRESSION BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 20.4N 110.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 20.7N 111.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 22/0600Z 20.9N 112.9W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 22/1800Z 20.9N 113.9W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM SAB.
STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SYSTEM
TODAY...AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY. THE SHEAR AND COOLER
WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TO A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN
36 TO 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT IS OTHERWISE
SIMILAR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 20.6N 111.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 21.0N 112.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 22/1200Z 21.1N 113.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 23/0000Z 21.0N 114.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[supercane]

Slowly spinning down as it continues to encounter easterly shear and moves into cooler waters:

[KWT]

Yeah its done well to keep itself going this long to be fair, still has a pretty decent low level circulation there!

[lester]

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 212031
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010

...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 111.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE BY MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


00
WTPZ43 KNHC 212031
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010

THE DEPRESSION IS NOW A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL NEARLY VOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM...AND
THE COLD WATER COMBINED WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ENTIRELY WITHIN THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/06...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
EARLIER. THE DEPRESSION AND ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 20.7N 111.9W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 20.8N 112.8W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 22/1800Z 20.9N 113.8W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 23/0600Z 20.8N 114.6W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[supercane]

Nice image earlier from Terra satellite:

[Chacor]

WTPZ23 KNHC 220238
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010
0300 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 112.6W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 112.6W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 112.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.2N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.2N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.1N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 112.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

WTPZ43 KNHC 220246
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010

THERE HAS BEEN NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHT-E SINCE ABOUT 15Z...AND THE SYSTEM CENTER IS MOVING OVER
STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SIGNIFICANT
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW. THE LOW SHOULD
MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HR BEFORE DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS
SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 21.1N 112.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12HR VT 22/1200Z 21.2N 113.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 23/0000Z 21.2N 114.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 23/1200Z 21.1N 115.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[lester]

Another one bites the dust