ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

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GeneratorPower
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#361 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:43 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Yep..Very close to the U.S east coast. Not looking at specifics. GFS is doing weird thing having this go north in the short term and longer term with a strong ridge over it.

Trend continues to miss the trough on the 00z run



My question is, perhaps the steering layer for the storm is something other than where the ridge is. Maybe there's a trough to pick up the system at a different height level.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#362 Postby jaxfladude » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:47 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Brent wrote:Well this is interesting!

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal180.gif

One giant heaping of "You shall not pass" through the ridge.


Image

I hope for the sake of all that the weakness is such that all landmass and/or islands are missed comfortably. Just some nice swells at the beaches(be careful of the rip-currents as always) :larrow:
Although, I worry that later on one system may just yet cause some big time troubles this season.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#363 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:49 pm

It got left behind big time

Image
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Michael

xcool22

#364 Postby xcool22 » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:50 pm

Image



Steering Layer 700-850mb
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#365 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:52 pm

just got a wiff of a shift with that run....lets see what the EURO shows.....I believe the CMC is up next....
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#366 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:57 pm

i have a feeling this is just the beginning of several more westward shifts in the models. a recurve looks much less likely right now than it did 24 hours ago...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#367 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:57 pm

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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#368 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:58 pm

i been tell some of you other day tooooo early call system a fish because model change like 50 time from invest to td and hurr you see now we see stronger high day five
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#369 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:59 pm

GFS runs past 24 hr, with most recent run not showing solid recurve but gaining latitude all the same. Bermuda should watch this:

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#370 Postby Florida1118 » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:07 am

As soon as I jump on the Recurve train I got to get back off...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#371 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:17 am

AtlanticWind wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2010082200&set=Tropical



Ivan look how far west this get....this looks more realistic in the short and med range....
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#372 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:20 am

supercane wrote:GFS runs past 24 hr, with most recent run not showing solid recurve but gaining latitude all the same. Bermuda should watch this:

Image



huh Bermuda? GFS is plowing this into ridges like they are not even there.......
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#373 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:22 am

0z gfs has what look like a track similar to Felix1995
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#374 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:22 am

ROCK wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2010082200&set=Tropical



Ivan look how far west this get....this looks more realistic in the short and med range....


That's interesting.

The Canadian looks to go fishing again, but I'm not overly concerned with the surface reflection on the models this early. Ridge is coming off stronger and stronger off the East coast and the trough weaker and lifting up faster...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#375 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:22 am

yeah rock i agree. i think the nogaps looks good so far.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#376 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:22 am

CMC site is down....nice... :roll: bandwidth exceeded....must be getting some serious hits.... :D


your right it takes a weakness and shows a weaker EC high..... Earl though slips thru under Dee as it stays weak...
Last edited by ROCK on Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#377 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:23 am

ROCK wrote:CMC site is down....nice... :roll: bandwidth exceeded....must be getting some serious hits.... :D



Sorry..I'll lay off :lol:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#378 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:30 am

00z UKMET at 144 hours shows a 991 mb storm near 25.6N/60.6W.

This is about 410 nm WSW of the 12z run.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression SIX - Models

#379 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:34 am

nogaps has it missing the trough and heading west-wnw towards florida/bahamas.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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#380 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:35 am

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