2010 WPAC Season

[Chacor]

We now have a TD out of 94W. Still no fifth storm on the horizon though.

Still the second slowest season, behind 1998. In 1998, the fifth named storm, 9805 Stella, formed September 13.

The average number of named storms, from 1951 through 2008, on this date is 12.3, so we are eight storms below average at the moment.

We are on pace for 6.26 named storms for the whole year, having had four storms through 233 days. The seasonal average from 1951 through 2008 is just under 27.

[Typhoon10]

its been very disappointing. I keep on looking at HKO's website and I know everyone says their computer model forecast is rubbish, but its easy to understand and sometimes hope they will get one right. They predict something coming east of Philippines in 72 hrs which looks interesting

http://www.hko.gov.hk/nwp/nwpsfcpp72e.htm

If that is right, its showing it as quite strong even before it gets near Philippines or Taiwan.

[KWT]

Now into the exceptionally slow range...something is REALLY messed up in the tropics this year, its a 1977 reduex!!

[Typhoon10]

Now into the exceptionally slow range...something is REALLY messed up in the tropics this year, its a 1977 reduex!!

Morning KWT! But is there any specific reason for it?

[KWT]

I've no idea what could be the cause of it...this season could go one of two ways, either like 1977 and carry on dead or like 1998 and somewhat ramp up overall globally...

At the moment it sure looks like its trending towards 1977 rather then 1998 but things can still change...odds of a sub 20NS season is very high now though either way.

[StormingB81]

I know we all talk about it and sometimes they say it is not reliable but that hong kong site has a storm headed near Okinawa in 72 hours. Seems like we say this every couple of days..lol

[Typhoon Hunter]

I know we all talk about it and sometimes they say it is not reliable but that hong kong site has a storm headed near Okinawa in 72 hours. Seems like we say this every couple of days..lol

Exactly, hence it's not worth time of day! It's probably spawned over 100 different storms so far this year.

Now ECWMF is onto a trend with a disturbance forming near Guam at 120 hours and tracking WNW then NW into Okinawa as a powerful typhoon. It's developed this storm 3 runs in a row now so eagerly awaiting the 00z which is out in an hour.

I hope the sheared blob TD 94W in the SCS doesn't take the next name, Mindulle, which I think would better suit a proper Wpac typhoon!

This would certainly give our friends in Okinawa a good blow:

[StormingB81]

Well towards the end of the week could be pretty interesting them

[StormingB81]

Can you post the new one when it comes out?

[Typhoon10]

I know we all talk about it and sometimes they say it is not reliable but that hong kong site has a storm headed near Okinawa in 72 hours. Seems like we say this every couple of days..lol

Exactly, hence it's not worth time of day! It's probably spawned over 100 different storms so far this year.

Now ECWMF is onto a trend with a disturbance forming near Guam at 120 hours and tracking WNW then NW into Okinawa as a powerful typhoon. It's developed this storm 3 runs in a row now so eagerly awaiting the 00z which is out in an hour.

I hope the sheared blob TD 94W in the SCS doesn't take the next name, Mindulle, which I think would better suit a proper Wpac typhoon!

This would certainly give our friends in Okinawa a good blow:

TH, one thing I will say, but from what I can see in SCS we now have TD6 and 94W, which are close to each other. I did look at HKO's website a few days back and their Computer Model did predict the system would split into 2. So manybe in a way, they are not always wrong.

[Typhoon Hunter]

94W has been upgraded to 06W and it shouldn't be up on NRL any more. The system has not split into two, no idea what HKO model was forecasting...

Latest ECMWF runs can be seen here - http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!0!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010082200!!/

The 00z run has backed off development of the Okinawa typhoon however it still spawns an LPA near Guam around the 120 hours mark. So the trend kind of continues!

[Infdidoll]

Be ready. Things have got to get crazy soon. Every time my husband deploys, SOMETHING crazy happens. I locked myself out of my house wearing nothing but a t-shirt and underwear one year, a saltwater aquarium we had with a crazy homemade filtration system went haywire and overflowed, had me bailing water, another time an outlet caught on fire and I had to put it out with a fire extinguisher, a wildfire came uncomfortably close to our house and I had to evacuate, last year he took off and Typhoon Melor came pretty close by here...Something always happens. It's Murphy's Law. Murphy says the big one will come the moment he's out on the boat...and I'm stuck here alone with the kids. Go figure.

[StormingB81]

The ECWMF now has one that looks like is just South of Okinawa can't tell on how strong the forecast is for but as we know we just have to see what develops. There looks like a cluster but looks nothing serious of development at this time because it is very disorganized and all over the place.

[Typhoon Hunter]

The ECWMF now has one that looks like is just South of Okinawa can't tell on how strong the forecast is for but as we know we just have to see what develops. There looks like a cluster but looks nothing serious of development at this time because it is very disorganized and all over the place.

The trend continues. The disturbance which spawns the "Taiwan / Okinawa Phantom Phoon" is forecast to form near Guam on Thursday. That will be the area to watch middle way through this week.

[StormingB81]

They are messing with you typhoon hunter...lol. However with what the models are showing you think that cluster near Guam can form into anything or no? Is there shear or anything near it?

[Typhoon Hunter]

They are messing with you typhoon hunter...lol. However with what the models are showing you think that cluster near Guam can form into anything or no? Is there shear or anything near it?

Not yet, wait until Thursday to see if anything starts blobbing up.

Here's shear chart link - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

[Chacor]

Guam discussion:

SCATTEROMETER DATA THIS
MORNING DID SHOW A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT FROM LUZON TO 130E.
MODELS ALL WANT TO DEVELOP A CIRCULATION ON THIS TROUGH BY
MIDWEEK.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Guam discussion:

SCATTEROMETER DATA THIS
MORNING DID SHOW A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT FROM LUZON TO 130E.
MODELS ALL WANT TO DEVELOP A CIRCULATION ON THIS TROUGH BY
MIDWEEK.

That must be the weak system that ECMWF takes north in about 96hrs time. Looks like the ridge will strengthen in its wake and take potential Guam blob WNW. This is all hypothetical model talk of course...

[StormingB81]

Be ready. Things have got to get crazy soon. Every time my husband deploys, SOMETHING crazy happens. I locked myself out of my house wearing nothing but a t-shirt and underwear one year, a saltwater aquarium we had with a crazy homemade filtration system went haywire and overflowed, had me bailing water, another time an outlet caught on fire and I had to put it out with a fire extinguisher, a wildfire came uncomfortably close to our house and I had to evacuate, last year he took off and Typhoon Melor came pretty close by here...Something always happens. It's Murphy's Law. Murphy says the big one will come the moment he's out on the boat...and I'm stuck here alone with the kids. Go figure.

Is it that crazy when he IS there? I man wow! I would be like nope gotta find a new job Shes gonna burn down the house sooner or later..LOL I am kidding!

[StormingB81]

That ECMWF has like 2 storms coming to Okinawa in a period of 4 days..The 28th and the 1rst anyone else see that or have any input on that?