ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[ColinDelia]

Yeah, developing on a very steady pace. The CIMSS Dvorak estimate is 1003 mb/2.7 - though the unaveraged is 3.0 (the final T number is a weighted time average)

[cycloneye]

2.8 in the dvorak by CIMSS.

Code: Select all

                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  22 AUG 2010    Time :   114500 UTC
      Lat :   12:17:25 N     Lon :   33:45:27 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                2.8     3.2     3.2

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +0.0mb

 Center Temp : +18.2C    Cloud Region Temp : -11.1C

 Scene Type : SHEAR (0.19^ TO DG)

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC     
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082212, , BEST, 0, 122N, 339W, 30, 1007, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest


Still a TD.

[ColinDelia]

Separating


The current shear keeping most of the convection west of the center

[cycloneye]

Center partially exposed.

[Blown Away]

The recurving scenario looks very bleak now as things are changing upstream according to the models. KWT, have you abandoned completly the recurving?

What model makes you think the recurve scenerio is bleak? Even if 95L slows down at the end run don't you think it will be far enough north to recurve at some point, maybe only affecting Bermuda?

[ColinDelia]

2 posts

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KT) 18 18 20 16 12 7 13 9 15 12 17 13 6

Shear estimates from SHIPS

[gatorcane]

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N41W THAT IS FORECAST BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 45-50W IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

This little snippet from the NHC is interesting. That is probably why some of the models such as the CMC and GFDL move TD 6 NW or NNW in 72 hours. But when I look at the WV loops, the ULL is headed West still and there is enough ridging between it and the system where it may not be a big factor. Will be interesting to see how much this ULL causes TD 6 to gain lattitude. Could have some big implications down the road as the models are diverging on the syntopic setup.

One final note, the NHC has definitely not committed to a recurve looking at the discussions and cone. Notice for each cone they have shown, it does not distinctly recurve or distinctly bend west.

[cycloneye]

The recurving scenario looks very bleak now as things are changing upstream according to the models. KWT, have you abandoned completly the recurving?

What model makes you think the recurve scenerio is bleak? Even if 95L slows down at the end run don't you think it will be far enough north to recurve at some point, maybe only affecting Bermuda?

The 00z ECMWF changed its tune overnight.You can go to the models thread and see what it did in that particular run. Is all about timing to know if it is going to recurve or not.

[supercane]

Nice convection on W side, but E side is devoid as seen on recent SSMIS pass:

[gatorcane]

So what kind of influence will the large wave to the east of TD 6 have on TD 6? Wonder if that is why some of the models keep TD 6 from really getting going over the next several days, until one of them becomes the dominant system.

Thoughts?

You can see the large wave has recently rolled off Africa:

[supercane]

Hard to say whether NHC will upgrade to TS at 11AM. Not tipping their hand with the best track:

AL, 06, 2010082212, , BEST, 0, 122N, 339W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 275, 75, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, S,
AL, 06, 2010082206, , BEST, 0, 117N, 330W, 30, 1007, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 275, 75, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, S,

[ColinDelia]

So what kind of influence will the large wave to the east of TD 6 have on TD 6? Wonder if that is why some of the models keep TD 6 from really getting going over the next several days, until one of them becomes the dominant system.

Thoughts?

The wave coming off Africa is supposed to be combine with the wave back by 5 East; with the eastern most one becoming more dominant.
That's the way most of the models are handling it.

[cycloneye]

So what kind of influence will the large wave to the east of TD 6 have on TD 6? Wonder if that is why some of the models keep TD 6 from really getting going over the next several days, until one of them becomes the dominant system.

Thoughts?

You can see the large wave has recently rolled off Africa:

They are around 1000 miles apart so no effects to TD 6. However TD 6 / Danielle may affect that wave as it may induce shear created by the outflow.

[ColinDelia]

Hard to say whether NHC will upgrade to TS at 11AM. Not tipping their hand with the best track:

It sure is close. Another 1 1/2 hours might do the trick

[Macrocane]

IMO it looks waaay better than Bonnie and Colin so I don't see why it shouldn't be upgraded to TS, the only reason I can think it's an ASCAT pass that doesn't indicate TS force winds but otherway it looks like a somewhat sheared tropical storm.

[plasticup]

Not to bring a model prediction to this thread, but the GFS 06 shows a strong ridge building ahead of the recurve, which presumably would force the 'cane west. It also shows a disgustingly powerful storm which, given the rate of development so far, seems plausible if not probable. Actually, most of the models are showing cat3+ at 5-7 days and the global models are starting to build another ridge ahead of it.

[cycloneye]

Latest Windsat pass made at 4:13 AM EDT.

[Category 5]

Doesn't look bad for a system thats partially exposed, nice rotation, good shape to it.

Btw, look behind it.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb-s.html

Center now completly exposed , this may stilll neeed some time .