1 PM CDT advisory: Pressure drops to 1001 mbs from 1008

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cycloneye
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1 PM CDT advisory: Pressure drops to 1001 mbs from 1008

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 15, 2003 12:39 pm

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... /MIATCPAT3

That is a big drop and it means it is organizing much better and it is going to intensiffy in the next hours.
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#2 Postby GalvestonDuck » Fri Aug 15, 2003 12:58 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

That's not an eye forming on the last image is it?
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#3 Postby wrkh99 » Fri Aug 15, 2003 1:03 pm

Might be in about 3 hours .
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#4 Postby southerngale » Fri Aug 15, 2003 1:06 pm

She's looking good on sat.
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#5 Postby Colin » Fri Aug 15, 2003 1:06 pm

I'm thinking Cat 1 at landfall...
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#6 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 15, 2003 1:10 pm

No...it's not an eye. Look at the temp scale at the bottom. It is a -80C tstm top.
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#7 Postby isobar » Fri Aug 15, 2003 1:14 pm

GalDuck - I think it may just be an area of colder cloud tops at this time. Certainly a sign of further intensification.

Latest IR WV image: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/WV/20.jpg
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#8 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Aug 15, 2003 1:17 pm

Actually, the 1001 mb pressure correlates nicely to a 50 mph tropical storm. I still expect to see a little less forward speed. However, I have noticed two things recently, a dry-spoke of air along the northern end, but also a consolidation around the center, and a very impressive looking CDO feature.

Don't get me wrong, I expect further strengthening and a slight reduction of that 23 mph forward speed. RECON observations show the 55 kt estimate by the observer based on sea surface conditions, but so far, they've found 57 kt max winds in the NE quad ... 50 mph winds sounds reasonable, however, I think the 5 pm advisory may be increased to 55-60 mph on Erika. Awaiting more RECON obs.

SF
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