ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[KWT]

though the LLC might have jogged some north but the overall steering for this pressure is westward....I suspect this is temporary and back west we go if this does in fact loop around.....not sold on a decouple...well not yet anyway...

Yeah thats a very possible solution, we will see its probably interacting with the other vort region to the east but who knows, its quite a surprise to see this shoot northwards I've gotta admit.

The only thing I will say is there appears to be a MLC with the convection so this one probably is decoupled and if TD6's circulation carries on northwards the MLC could end up developing its own LLC...and then who knows what may happen!

[ColinDelia]

Intensity forecasts are notoriously difficult and this situation is more complicated than most.

We have a depression over warm waters, with SAL to the north and an exposed center under shear with less shear to the west. And that's just some of the factors. A lot of things could happen here - both bullish and bearish - and it is really just not very predictable.

This COULD be out there for over a week with many ups and downs.

It's pretty amazing how similar the whole discussion has been to that of Frances so far.

viewtopic.php?f=57&t=96356&start=0

[CrazyC83]

Satellite center looks to be at 12.3N 35.2W under the convection. I wish we had data out there to confirm that...

[Javlin]

Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

Someone else has jumped on board.But seriously though if the MLC develops something down the road it might be tough for anyone system to get going it will be MLC,06 and the one off the African coast.And yes this board likes to jump ship esp. with the season we have had thus far

[CrazyC83]

Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

Someone else has jumped on board.But seriously though if the MLC develops something down the road it might be tough for anyone system to get going it will be MLC,06 and the one off the African coast.And yes this board likes to jump ship esp. with the season we have had thus far

Looks like a new LLC to me...at 13.3N 35.3W - to the WNW of the ADT center just above the convection.

[Riptide]

A decoupling alone is probably not enough to destroy this system. Just watch the LLC sneak back under the convection.

[Lowpressure]

Sat loop is very interesting. Not sure what to think. Would expect if there is much more separation, a new LLC would have to form under the MLC with the convection, or this is going to take some time to regroup (days). What if it stays a depression or even an open wave for several days, then fires back up? That opens a whole new scenario.

[Weather Watcher]

If you were in a ship right at the center and looked up would you see the swirl in the clouds ? I think you would

Yes, What do you see when you look from space? Swirls, so both ways swirl.

[Blown Away]

I'm seeing the LLC moving NNW away from the convection and does not appear to be wrapping back around. So either TD6 will reform a LLC under the convection or TD6 is in trouble.

[KWT]

Looks to me to be honest the LLC is alreadt weakening and starting to open up on the southern side, if that happens then given the convection I'd certainly think there is a chance of a new circulation developing.

If it tries to still develop the orginal LLC then recurve odds are looking increasingly good, honestly even 2-3 degrees difference will make a rather large difference in such a tight set-up.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm seeing the LLC moving NNW away from the convection and does not appear to be wrapping back around. So either TD6 will reform a LLC under the convection or TD6 is in trouble.

It's goose might be cooked. Now it may go in the way of Colin. The shear is getting stronger and the system is decoupling. Every image is worse and worse, what a joke.

[cycloneye]

Well, maybe this 16:45z image is a small change,a little closer to convection.

[CrazyC83]

The old LLC looks to be dead IMO...at least based on that AMSU pass...is the MLC in the convection, or where the new LLC is?

[Aquawind]

Looks to me to be honest the LLC is alreadt weakening and starting to open up on the southern side, if that happens then given the convection I'd certainly think there is a chance of a new circulation developing.

If it tries to still develop the orginal LLC then recurve odds are looking increasingly good, honestly even 2-3 degrees difference will make a rather large difference in such a tight set-up.

Yep and the possible reform could be a threat to the islands if it take it's time. This realy does open the door for a more westard track. This was a bit of a shocker to see the LLC motion.

[KWT]

Yeah the old circulation sure looks like its starting to open up a little...also circulation looks like its bending westwards again but the damage may already be done in terms of the future...

Its as far north as it was progged to be by 00z tonight already, so needs to head due west just to stay a little north of the forecast point.

[ROCK]

The old LLC looks to be dead IMO...at least based on that AMSU pass...is the MLC in the convection, or where the new LLC is?

it does look weaker now in that image....Luis.....opening up some....

[Aric Dunn]

The farther north it goes the lighter the shear will get and we should see a come back later this afternoon. if the center reforms or not does not matter much is still a weak depression. this motion is again temporary and will have little affect on the long term motion. we should see a more westerly motion starting later as well. The shear was forecast but was not supposed to be the strong. the interaction with that other vorticity seems to be coming to an end shortly.

[CrazyC83]

It is certainly possible there are 35 kt winds in that convection though.

[Vortex]

old llc surely looks in trouble..MLC looks very vigorous

[Blown Away]

Could somebody post the Lat/Long of where they think the MLC and LLC are?