Aric Dunn wrote:
thats not that far KWT ... stair stepping still will lead to a average WNW .. i bet late this evening its nearing the next forecast point..
Ok maybe not way but in this situation even small amounts north or east of the expected track really can make a difference...of course its still early enough in the game for the players upstream to be of far more importance...as I've said if this gets to 30N I can only see one solution being right given where the subtropical High sets itself-up at and the fact there are still upper troughs running to the north of the weak upper high that forms...sure It'd still bend west a little probably but nort hof say 35N it'd become very hard for this to bend back too far west or at any pace...
Thats why the HWRF's solution tonight is soooo interesting because it bends back quickly at 96hrs and far enough south so the subtropical high is totally in charge.
Also as for the whole shooting northwards thing, usually systems do tend to do that to some extent when they are down this low and the LLC tightens up, though I think the easterly shear has made it look far more dramatic then it usually is. As Aric said, watch for it to bend WNW soon, may even be happening already looking at the last loop.
Oh and Aric, FWIW I totally agree with you, but I do like to throw out some other ideas as well, I suppose I like the discussion of it all!
