ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082218, , BEST, 0, 132N, 346W, 30, 1007, TD


ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[KWT]

Looks like a TS to me: 22/1745 UTC 12.7N 34.6W T2.5/2.5 06L -- Atlantic

Once decent convection redevelops over the circulation you'll probably see the NHC pull the trigger for it to get upgraded I think.

I still think the actual LLC is getting reall stretched out, perhaps not reforming but I bet its relocating a little further west towards the convection.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Actually I've said for the last 24hrs we do need to watch this one closer then I orginally thought, the key thing is the upper high forming, if that happens then the threat is there for sure!

I'd still say 70% chance recurve 30% chance of hitting land but thats enough now IMO to take it seriously!

LLC should move closer to the convection in the next 6hrs and at the same time convection will probably develop closer to the systems LLC as is starting to happen.

I don't know, judging from the models if I was you, I'd flip those percentages around. Though that's just my opinion.

[vacanechaser]

The easterlies were supposed to be weaker this year, meaning, less shear on system like TD #6. I guessed that hasn't happened yet.

What does the SAL look like to the north by the way Hurakan, maybe a slight uptick in the easterly jet again which is probably shearing the system...

Not the same type of shear as Colin or Bonnie though, well not to the same extreme, but its enough to probably prevent any strengthening.

The current GFDL looks decent in terms of intial motion and gets to 13.5N before it bends back WNW...which BTW I'm pretty confident that will happen...and I wouldn't even say the northerly motion wasn't forecasted, the models did suggest it would bounce a little to the north at first at times on thier output.

Also FWIW the GFDL still really develops this into a power house.

nope, no sal to speak of... its not the easterly jet either... i think it is coming from the complex of storms to its northeast... once that weakens or t.d.6 can clear it, that shear should relax....

sal link..





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[wxman57]

Looks like it may be on its way to merging with the other feature to its north. I can almost make out another circulation north of TD 6 beneath the convection around 15N/35.5W- ish. I think that for it finally to get going, the two systems will have to come together.

[perk]

AFM is right.

No surprise,AFM is typically on the money.

[Evil Jeremy]

Nice blowup right now. I think the NHC will wait until 11 for the upgrade, just to make sure the convection sticks and is consistent.

[floridasun78]

kwt i been watching you post you not taking into hand that nhc thinking high now starting look like stronger at end forecast more west that weakness you talking past days not going happen alot models are jumping with nogap showing w or wnw track getting close to bahamas only thing i trying say people need keep eye on td-6 not think this a fish for sure i post here few time let not jump on fish yet see what happen now you and few were already jumping fish forecast

[KWT]

I don't know, judging from the models if I was you, I'd flip those percentages around. Though that's just my opinion.

Possibly, I've been too agressive about recurving before so I maybe too agressive here as well, though I've yet to see one model actually make landfall on the states, hence why I'm still favouring the recurve solution a little more, but I'm taking it seriously now for sure.

Wxman57, thats interesting, I hadn't noticed it before but I can see there maybe something up there, maybe the remains of the old Vort that tried to get going at 25W before this one developed?

[BigB0882]

I don't know, judging from the models if I was you, I'd flip those percentages around. Though that's just my opinion.

Possibly, I've been too agressive about recurving before so I maybe too agressive here as well, though I've yet to see one model actually make landfall on the states, hence why I'm still favouring the recurve solution a little more, but I'm taking it seriously now for sure.

Wxman57, thats interesting, I hadn't noticed it before but I can see there maybe something up there, maybe the remains of the old Vort that tried to get going at 25W before this one developed?

Do any of the models go out far enough to show landfall, though? NOGAPS sure looks like it would be heading for a landfall somewhere but it just is still to far out I think to show it.

[cycloneye]

A closeup of the blowup of convection over LLC.

[vacanechaser]

I don't know, judging from the models if I was you, I'd flip those percentages around. Though that's just my opinion.

Possibly, I've been too agressive about recurving before so I maybe too agressive here as well, though I've yet to see one model actually make landfall on the states, hence why I'm still favouring the recurve solution a little more, but I'm taking it seriously now for sure.

Wxman57, thats interesting, I hadn't noticed it before but I can see there maybe something up there, maybe the remains of the old Vort that tried to get going at 25W before this one developed?

oh, i pointed it out before he did in the post just above, but you will listen to him and not me????? whatever!!!!!! j/j



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

I don't know, judging from the models if I was you, I'd flip those percentages around. Though that's just my opinion.

Possibly, I've been too agressive about recurving before so I maybe too agressive here as well, though I've yet to see one model actually make landfall on the states, hence why I'm still favouring the recurve solution a little more, but I'm taking it seriously now for sure.

Wxman57, thats interesting, I hadn't noticed it before but I can see there maybe something up there, maybe the remains of the old Vort that tried to get going at 25W before this one developed?

Do any of the models go out far enough to show landfall, though? NOGAPS sure looks like it would be heading for a landfall somewhere but it just is still to far out I think to show it.

yes, the gfs would... but of course the gfs insists on a recurve...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

Do any of the models go out far enough to show landfall, though? NOGAPS sure looks like it would be heading for a landfall somewhere but it just is still to far out I think to show it.

Not really, the HWRF would probably lead to a good chance of a landfall though and the Nogaps almost certainly would as well FWIW, the GFS/GFDL recurve but even they aren't that far away.

The trend is for the upper high to build quickly enough for now, alas they are but trends BUT then again trends are what forecasts are build upon!

[cpdaman]

Looks like it may be on its way to merging with the other feature to its north. I can almost make out another circulation north of TD 6 beneath the convection around 15N/35.5W- ish. I think that for it finally to get going, the two systems will have to come together.

i'm a bit surprised by this post.....anyone else notice this

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it may be on its way to merging with the other feature to its north. I can almost make out another circulation north of TD 6 beneath the convection around 15N/35.5W- ish. I think that for it finally to get going, the two systems will have to come together.

i'm a bit surprised by this post.....anyone else notice this

well I mentioned that the area was weakening and the two areas were interacting and trying to rotate around each other. but the other area seems to be nearly gone and should soon no longer have a major influence.

[x-y-no]

Looks like it may be on its way to merging with the other feature to its north. I can almost make out another circulation north of TD 6 beneath the convection around 15N/35.5W- ish. I think that for it finally to get going, the two systems will have to come together.

i'm a bit surprised by this post.....anyone else notice this

I'm not seeing it.

It looks more to me like our LLC may be orbiting a broader circulation - it went pretty much due north for a full degree, but is now swinging around westward. We may see the center consolidating again under the big convective blob, or the burst of convection over the small LLC may strengthen it and make that the eventual center.

[CrazyC83]

I think there could easily be 35-40 kt winds there, but I agree they should wait until 11 or until something even more convincing happens. It is nowhere near land so they can be patient.

[HURAKAN]

close-up

[KWT]

It looks more to me like our LLC may be orbiting a broader circulation - it went pretty much due north for a full degree, but is now swinging around westward. We may see the center consolidating again under the big convective blob, or the burst of convection over the small LLC may strengthen it and make that the eventual center.

Yeah I think thats what most of us now think, that it will bend back westwards or WNW over the next 6-9hrs or so. The center is getting some convection again so it probably will strengthen up again a little.

ps, ECM gets down to 935mbs!