ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

Since the convection is wrapping around the LLC, I think Danielle is very likely already.

[cycloneye]

ADT dvorak says Danielle.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt06L.html

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2010 Time : 194500 UTC
Lat : 12:57:35 N Lon : 34:46:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt

[KWT]

I really can't see the NHC holding back much longer to be honest, looks like a TS right now really, improved quite nicely in the last few hours after the brief increase of shear.

[StormTracker]

The 19:15 sat shot looks about half a degree north of the official track but more importantly there is strong convection burst right over the LLC.
Its better stacked now so maybe tonights wobble watching will give us a better indication of the current steering.

ummm... wabble watching wont help with anything.. .

here is your steering..

Aric I've been eyeballing that graphic, but with what everyone's been posting I thought I was looking at the wrong things!
Can you post the graphics continuity from today to like Wed/Thur? How long do those steering currents last?

[TwisterFanatic]

43kts? That would be 50mph correct?

[Aric Dunn]

The 19:15 sat shot looks about half a degree north of the official track but more importantly there is strong convection burst right over the LLC.
Its better stacked now so maybe tonights wobble watching will give us a better indication of the current steering.

ummm... wabble watching wont help with anything.. .

here is your steering..

Aric I've been eyeballing that graphic, but with what everyone's been posting I thought I was looking at the wrong things!
Can you post the graphics continuity from today to like Wed/Thur? How long do those steering currents last?

well like every static image it is only a moment in time. but all the models hold the ridge you currently see basically in place hence the wnw motion for the next few days then a more nw motion as it comes to the western side of the ridge. after thats up in the air and depends on the trough.

[KWT]

Yep TF, thats nearly a 3.0 which combined with the convective blow-up that developed over the center recently should be enough to get this upgraded IMO.

[cycloneye]

43kts? That would be 50mph correct?

45 kts is 50mph. But lets wait for the official advisory that will be released shortly to see what will they do.

[fci]

Moving NW and is already well NE of the first NHC forecast point. Seems very likely we will have a strong fish spinner with Bermuda being the only area that needs to watch closely. Very unlikely this system gains the latitude the models show and then go west towards the CONUS before recurving.

Wobble watching will make you go blind. Its really not that far to the NE of its point. Maybe 60 miles. A track is an average...a wobble to the right...a wobble to the left. People get way to caught up in these little wobbles.

Prediction: They will re-adjust the track to the right due to the wobble...but have it going in the same direction...and then it will wobble to the left....and then there will be post upon post about how its moving to the left of the forecast track.

And yes...I understand every wobble has an impact on the future track...but at this point...every wobble is noise...that is all...

Thank you for your usual dose of reality.
Wobbles are just noise until a system gets real close to land.
When it is this far out movement for a few hours have minimal impact on overall track of a storm.
I keep seeing people get all fretful when a system takes a little longer to develop and how the slight jog to the west means a threat..........
Keep slapping people back to reality when needed, AFM

[Macrocane]

It's incredible how fast the storng convection developed over the center, the pro mets are right and we have to be more patient before coming to any conclusions, it looks like Danielle to my amateur ayes, let's see what the NHC says in a few minutes.

[bvigal]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 222043
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
oops, wrong thread, sorry, well it's already posted now in advisory thread!

[HurrMark]

Danielle it is: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/222043.shtml

[StarmanHDB]

The oncoming long shadows combined with the boom of convection are almost a thing of beauty to watch! Nature's just amazing!

[cycloneye]

Finnally, the elusive Danielle is here!!!

[KWT]

Yep its been upgraded, they couldn't really hold back given the deep convection...

Interestingly they aren't too agressive with regards to strengthening over the next 24hrs just strenghtening by 5kts according to the NHC, could be a little on the low side...

[AdamFirst]

It's all uphill from here for Danielle...we must watch the track eagerly.

[vacanechaser]

Yep its been upgraded, they couldn't really hold back given the deep convection...

Interestingly they aren't too agressive with regards to strengthening over the next 24hrs just strenghtening by 5kts according to the NHC, could be a little on the low side...

read the discussion

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO SCALE BACK ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT IDEAL...AND SOME DRY AIR
APPEARS TO SURROUND THE SYSTEM. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAY
3...AND THE LGEM DOES NOT EVEN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LEFT UNCHANGED OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY.

Jesse V. Bass III
Http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

[Vortex]

GFS ensembles, Nogaps all are trending to the right..I think we will see a bend to the west but by that point it will likely be to far north to pose much of a threat to the US. Bermuda may be a different story..

[Brent]

Wow...