ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[KWT]

GFS ensembles, Nogaps all are trending to the right..I think we will see a bend to the west but by that point it will likely be to far north to pose much of a threat to the US. Bermuda may be a different story..

Actually they've trended a touch east in the 12z and the ECM ensembles overall agree, though still alot of uncertainty past 168hrs!

I do agree with your ideas though, 60-70W recurve would still be my call for now despite being much more uncertain.

[Vortex]

KWT, thats correct to the right is east

[hurricaneCW]

The NHC isn't too keen on the strengthening trend, no surprise given this season.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS ensembles, Nogaps all are trending to the right..I think we will see a bend to the west but by that point it will likely be to far north to pose much of a threat to the US. Bermuda may be a different story..

Just remember a Flag flapping in the Wind... honestly dont hang onto any model out past 3 days... just look at them and see what the changes are and watch for those patterns to start..

[CrazyC83]

Just need to relax shear a bit more to fill the SE quad and then Danielle could pick up more strength.

[hurricaneCW]

All I know is that this morning, the models trended quite far to the west, so I'm not surprised they adjusted to the east. Given the potential errors in track beyond 5 days, saying anything with certainty is quite foolish.

[Blown Away]

Moving NW and is already well NE of the first NHC forecast point. Seems very likely we will have a strong fish spinner with Bermuda being the only area that needs to watch closely. Very unlikely this system gains the latitude the models show and then go west towards the CONUS before recurving.

Wobble watching will make you go blind. Its really not that far to the NE of its point. Maybe 60 miles. A track is an average...a wobble to the right...a wobble to the left. People get way to caught up in these little wobbles.

Prediction: They will re-adjust the track to the right due to the wobble...but have it going in the same direction...and then it will wobble to the left....and then there will be post upon post about how its moving to the left of the forecast track.

And yes...I understand every wobble has an impact on the future track...but at this point...every wobble is noise...that is all...

Thank you for your usual dose of reality.
Wobbles are just noise until a system gets real close to land.
When it is this far out movement for a few hours have minimal impact on overall track of a storm.
I keep seeing people get all fretful when a system takes a little longer to develop and how the slight jog to the west means a threat..........
Keep slapping people back to reality when needed, AFM

My first sentence was an accurate observation at that time. My second sentence was what the NHC and most of the models are suggesting, a fish spinner. My third sentence was referencing the possibility of a west bend and IMO it was very unlikely for a system reaching 30N/55W to go west all the way to the CONUS.
I was not fretting at all and there are times I should be slapped but this was not one of them.

[Vortex]

18Z Nam 500mb certainly would give a solution of a system tracking more wnw than anything at H+84.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

[KWT]

GFS ensembles, Nogaps all are trending to the right..I think we will see a bend to the west but by that point it will likely be to far north to pose much of a threat to the US. Bermuda may be a different story..

Just remember a Flag flapping in the Wind... honestly dont hang onto any model out past 3 days... just look at them and see what the changes are and watch for those patterns to start..

I think we are starting to see if anything the models going back away from the trend of strengthening the upper high, the ensembles from both models seem east of the 00z early on...but as you say it can change...still no model actually gets to the US bar 2 GFS ensembles from the 12z GFS...

What I will say is as Vortex said, Bermuda really may have to take this one seriously, would be as strong as Fabian was if not maybe a smidge stronger if some of the models are right.

Vortex, sorry I'm talking nonsense again, it happens alot

[fci]

[b]Moving NW and is already well NE of the first NHC forecast point. Seems very likely we will have a strong fish spinner with Bermuda being the only area that needs to watch closely. Very unlikely this system gains the latitude the models show and then go west towards the CONUS before recurving.[

Thank you for your usual dose of reality.
Wobbles are just noise until a system gets real close to land.
When it is this far out movement for a few hours have minimal impact on overall track of a storm.
I keep seeing people get all fretful when a system takes a little longer to develop and how the slight jog to the west means a threat..........
Keep slapping people back to reality when needed, AFM

My first sentence was an accurate observation at that time. My second sentence was what the NHC and most of the models are suggesting, a fish spinner. My third sentence was referencing the possibility of a west bend and IMO it was very unlikely for a system reaching 30N/55W to go west all the way to the CONUS.
I was not fretting at all and there are times I should be slapped but this was not one of them.

No offense intended to you.
I was speaking in generalities about wobble watching and the propensity for people in general to overeact to wobbles and short term movements.

[Vortex]

here comes the 18z GFS...let's see which way the flag blows this run

[KWT]

Looking at the Vis loops it looks like the system has bent back towards the west again as was expected by some on here.

Pretty much at the same location as the GFDL forecasted it on its 12z run earlier which gives confidence to its handling of the set-up.

[cpdaman]

still really no convection on E side......

ARIC ...you think this will change overnite?

[KWT]

Oh yeah its still a little lopsided for sure but its alot better looking then it was even 6hrs ago to be fair!

Still not stacked though yet...

[cycloneye]

ADT Dvorak up to 3.0.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt06L.html

Code: Select all

                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  22 AUG 2010    Time :   211500 UTC
      Lat :   13:24:59 N     Lon :   35:08:25 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.0     3.4     3.4

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +0.0mb

 Center Temp :  +2.0C    Cloud Region Temp : -32.6C

 Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC     
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   


[ConvergenceZone]

Even though the NHC mentioned that the "LGEM DOES NOT EVEN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE", and in spite of the shear forecasted, I still think Danielle will make it to hurricane status, although it may not be until later in the period...Might just be a minimal cat 1 though due to the conditions.

[Aric Dunn]

still really no convection on E side......

ARIC ...you think this will change overnite?

yeah eventually... there is some stable air east of it and you can see the stable air clouds .. the farther west it moves the better chance it will have... it should hold its own tonight.

[KWT]

Even though the NHC mentioned that the "LGEM DOES NOT EVEN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE", and in spite of the shear forecasted, I still think Danielle will make it to hurricane status, although it may not be until later in the period...Might just be a minimal cat 1 though due to the conditions.

Well the ECM utterly explodes this is a little further north and the other models suggest a fairly potent system so I still feel a powerful hurricane will come from this one in the end, just may take a little while to really ramp itself up, so steady rather then rapid is the way this one is going.

[ConvergenceZone]

Even though the NHC mentioned that the "LGEM DOES NOT EVEN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE", and in spite of the shear forecasted, I still think Danielle will make it to hurricane status, although it may not be until later in the period...Might just be a minimal cat 1 though due to the conditions.

Well the ECM utterly explodes this is a little further north and the other models suggest a fairly potent system so I still feel a powerful hurricane will come from this one in the end, just may take a little while to really ramp itself up, so steady rather then rapid is the way this one is going.

KWT, I think I would be on board with what you are saying if it wasn't 2010, but we know how this year has went.

[cycloneye]

Even though the NHC mentioned that the "LGEM DOES NOT EVEN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE", and in spite of the shear forecasted, I still think Danielle will make it to hurricane status, although it may not be until later in the period...Might just be a minimal cat 1 though due to the conditions.

Well the ECM utterly explodes this is a little further north and the other models suggest a fairly potent system so I still feel a powerful hurricane will come from this one in the end, just may take a little while to really ramp itself up, so steady rather then rapid is the way this one is going.

Also, the ACE units wll rack up fast the more stronger it gets and as you say KWT, this will be a strong one down the road.