EPAC: Ex-Tropical Depression FRANK

[KWT]

Yeah good job its heading near due west right now and so it should stay far enough away from land to be a big threat to Mexico.

Fully expect a hurricane in 12-18hrs.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah good job its heading near due west right now and so it should stay far enough away from land to be a big threat to Mexico.

Fully expect a hurricane in 12-18hrs.

Shear increases rapidly if it moves too far away. But if it stays close, it could be a hurricane within 6 hours.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[CrazyC83]

Is that an EYE that I see?

[CrazyC83]

Looking at what has happened, I would bump the intensity to 55 kt for the advisory, mention hurricane likely very soon, raise the forecast intensity at least to 85 kt and that might need a Hurricane Watch. All that would require a Special Advisory.

[KWT]

Yep I'm in agreement with that Crazy I'd also up this one somewhat now given the way its presentation is improving pretty rapidly.

[CrazyC83]

Yep I'm in agreement with that Crazy I'd also up this one somewhat now given the way its presentation is improving pretty rapidly.

Advisory out - only increased to 45 kt. Seems quite low considering its recent microwave scans.

[CrazyC83]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 221732
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010

...FRANK MOVING WESTWARD...CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 95.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ WESTWARD TO PUERTO ANGEL
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE
GALEANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST. FRANK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FRANK WILL BE
MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND FRANK COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUERTO ANGEL
TODAY...AND IN THE WATCH AREA FROM PUNTA MALDONADO TO TECPAN DE
GALEANA BY LATE MONDAY.

RAINFALL...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL REGION OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[lester]

60 mph at 2pm PDT:

EP, 09, 2010082218, , BEST, 0, 138N, 957W, 50, 1001, TS,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010

EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
...A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER
OF FRANK. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KNOTS FOR THIS
PACKAGE...BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
DESPITE SHOWING THE SHEAR INCREASING TO 25 KNOTS BY 12 HOURS...THE
STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS HAVE TRENDED SHARPLY UPWARD IN THE
FIRST 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING AND AN
OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN
ADJUSTED UPWARD...BUT NOW LIES A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS AND LGEM
THROUGH DAY 2 AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THOSE MODELS BEYOND THAT
TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07...AND THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. THROUGH THE PERIOD FRANK SHOULD BE
STEERED PRIMARILY WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. WHILE ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS INCREASED
...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND LIES NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. LATE IN PERIOD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE LARGE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.

GIVEN THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD TO ACAPULCO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 13.9N 96.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 14.0N 97.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 14.3N 98.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 14.8N 100.4W 70 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 15.4N 101.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 16.5N 104.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 26/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 27/1800Z 18.5N 109.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[KWT]

Its interesting to see the models still strengthening it despite progging an increase of shear, we'll see how it all pans out won't we!

[dixiebreeze]

Recon on alert:
Tropical Weather Statements
814
NOUS42 KNHC 221400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 22 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL FIX MISSION ON
CURRENT TD 09 NEAR 15.5N 101.5W, IF IT IS THREAT..
WVW

[KWT]

I suspect given the models the NHC will probably cancel the recon tomorrow though obviously if it nudged northwards then they'd keep it...would like to see some EPAC recon!

[CrazyC83]

I suspect given the models the NHC will probably cancel the recon tomorrow though obviously if it nudged northwards then they'd keep it...would like to see some EPAC recon!

Since I doubt they would need Recon on Danielle before Wednesday at the earliest (more likely Thursday), resources shouldn't be an issue.

[KWT]

True but they don't tend to do flights into systems that may not threaten land, it'll be a tight run thing and I suppose there is no harm in doing it just in case.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ34 KNHC 222333
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010

...FRANK MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 96.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD TO ACAPULCO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST. FRANK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...FRANK WILL BE MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND FRANK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL REGION OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[supercane]

The intensification trend appears over:



SSD Dvorak classification stable:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/2345 UTC 13.8N 96.3W T3.0/3.0 FRANK
22/1745 UTC 13.7N 95.7W T3.0/3.0 09E
22/1145 UTC 13.8N 94.9W T2.5/2.5 09E

[abajan]

What are those small islands named that Frank seems set to directly impact in 5 days time?

[cycloneye]

What are those small islands named that Frank seems set to directly impact in 5 days time?

I dont know the names of the smaller ones but the larger is Socorro island. I think there is a base of the Mexican army there.

[abajan]

What are those small islands named that Frank seems set to directly impact in 5 days time?

I dont know the names of the smaller ones but the larger is Socorro island. I think there is a base of the Mexican army there.

Thanks. From the info you supplied, I was able to find out that they are called the Revillagigedo Islands and the others in the group are San Benedicto, Roca Partida and Clarión.