ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[amawea]

JMHO, but I think this storm may be the catalyst for a change in the Atlantic basin and even the continental U.S. to a more LaNina pattern. Hot and dry is the name of the game this summer with upper lows all over the Atlantic. The energy from this will translate down the line to a different pattern I think.

[KWT]

KWT, I think I would be on board with what you are saying if it wasn't 2010, but we know how this year has went.

Well in that case Bill shouldn't have become a major last year given how poor things were, neither should have Andrew ramped to a 5 in 1992...get my point

Yeah I still think 30-40 units will get notched up Cycloneye!

[Buck]

Yes, I think Danielle will be a bit of a game-changer for this season.

[terrapintransit]

[KWT]

Still looks sheared but those cold cloud tops are pretty impressive right now!

[CrazyC83]

Outflow is really strong it seems except in the SE quad which it is inexistant. Just needs to fill that up and Danielle should strengthen. Unless Danielle is RI'ing right now...then I'd eat crow.

[Aric Dunn]

well 18z gfs is not helpful.. it unrealistically splits the east coast trough send the first low SE which weakens the ridge well east of brumuda and danielle turns out at about 55 west . more waiting of course..

[CrazyC83]

Is that.....an eye???

[Aric Dunn]

nope...

[Riptide]

nope...

The closed low from hell is back.

[Recurve]

First estimate for planning purposes: IF Danielle tacks a straight track to SE Florida at present speed, time to travel is 10.5 days, making landfall Thur., Sept. 2, 4 a.m.

NOT a forecast. Simply distance/speed = time to go.
Distance 2,647 n miles from approximately 25 North, 80 west.
Speed (since 2 p.m.) 10.52 knots
Calculated using NGS geofunc.xla functions
Of course, speed is not likely to remain constant or track to be a straight (great circle) line

Distance/time to other points:
Miami: 2,654 nm = 10.5 days
New Orleans: 3,187 = 12.6 days
Cape Hatteras: 2,514 = 10 days
Turks & Caicos: 2,112 = 8.4 days
Bermuda: 1,980 = 7.8 days
St. Kitts: 1,595 = 6.3 days

[KWT]

well 18z gfs is not helpful.. it unrealistically splits the east coast trough send the first low SE which weakens the ridge well east of brumuda and danielle turns out at about 55 west . more waiting of course..

Hmmm you never can quite tell, could be the start of a trend esp given quite a few of the models did bend back a little to the east over the 12z runs as well...need to see what the ensembles do though!

Does look a little unlikely though I agree, but the ECM was suggesting something similar occuring yesterday so it could happen though I rate the chances of it turning that far east about as high as the chances of a E.Coast landfall to be honest, both I don't think are that high really...

[cycloneye]

First estimate for planning purposes: IF Danielle tacks a straight track to SE Florida at present speed, time to travel is 10.5 days, making landfall Thur., Sept. 2, 4 a.m.

NOT a forecast. Simply distance/speed = time to go.
Distance 2,647 n miles from approximately 25 North, 80 west.
Speed (since 2 p.m.) 10.52 knots
Calculated using NGS geofunc.xla functions
Of course, speed is not likely to remain constant or track to be a straight (great circle) line

Distance/time to other points:
Miami: 2,654 nm = 10.5 days
New Orleans: 3,187 = 12.6 days
Cape Hatteras: 2,514 = 10 days
Turks & Caicos: 2,112 = 8.4 days
Bermuda: 1,980 = 7.8 days
St. Kitts: 1,595 = 6.3 days

Do you have the link to that interesting information?

[Aric Dunn]

First estimate for planning purposes: IF Danielle tacks a straight track to SE Florida at present speed, time to travel is 10.5 days, making landfall Thur., Sept. 2, 4 a.m.

NOT a forecast. Simply distance/speed = time to go.
Distance 2,647 n miles from approximately 25 North, 80 west.
Speed (since 2 p.m.) 10.52 knots
Calculated using NGS geofunc.xla functions
Of course, speed is not likely to remain constant or track to be a straight (great circle) line

Distance/time to other points:
Miami: 2,654 nm = 10.5 days
New Orleans: 3,187 = 12.6 days
Cape Hatteras: 2,514 = 10 days
Turks & Caicos: 2,112 = 8.4 days
Bermuda: 1,980 = 7.8 days
St. Kitts: 1,595 = 6.3 days

hehe.. thats my B-day..

[Recurve]

Is that.....an eye???

nope...

The only acceptable one-word post, IMHO.

[Aric Dunn]

well 18z gfs is not helpful.. it unrealistically splits the east coast trough send the first low SE which weakens the ridge well east of brumuda and danielle turns out at about 55 west . more waiting of course..

Hmmm you never can quite tell, could be the start of a trend esp given quite a few of the models did bend back a little to the east over the 12z runs as well...need to see what the ensembles do though!

Does look a little unlikely though I agree, but the ECM was suggesting something similar occuring yesterday so it could happen though I rate the chances of it turning that far east about as high as the chances of a E.Coast landfall to be honest, both I don't think are that high really...

well the spiting is extremely not likely... we would see something like occurring now with the Low/ trough on the east coast which its not.. thats why i said not realistic

[KWT]

Outflow is really strong it seems except in the SE quad which it is inexistant. Just needs to fill that up and Danielle should strengthen. Unless Danielle is RI'ing right now...then I'd eat crow.

Yeah right now despite the very cold cloud tops I'd say only steady strengthening but unless the shear ramps up again a little I see no real reason this can't become a major hurricane down the road to be honest.

[Recurve]

First estimate for planning purposes: IF Danielle tacks a straight track to SE Florida at present speed, time to travel is 10.5 days, making landfall Thur., Sept. 2, 4 a.m.

NOT a forecast. Simply distance/speed = time to go.
Distance 2,647 n miles from approximately 25 North, 80 west.
Speed (since 2 p.m.) 10.52 knots
Calculated using NGS geofunc.xla functions
Of course, speed is not likely to remain constant or track to be a straight (great circle) line

Distance/time to other points:
Miami: 2,654 nm = 10.5 days
New Orleans: 3,187 = 12.6 days
Cape Hatteras: 2,514 = 10 days
Turks & Caicos: 2,112 = 8.4 days
Bermuda: 1,980 = 7.8 days
St. Kitts: 1,595 = 6.3 days

hehe.. thats my B-day..

Congratulations Aric. Also the 75th anniversary of the most intense US landfalling hurricane of all time. Still.

[cycloneye]

The latest microwave image. Interesting I may say.

[Recurve]

cyclone -- it's a spreadsheet I created. Uses lat/long to determine distance, compares advisory locations to determine speed, and calculates time just using simple math.

For those who are interested in using Excel, the geofunction functions are explained here and can be downloaded.
http://www.afsc.noaa.gov/nmml/software/excelgeo.php

I could share the spreadsheet but you have to enter the data manually, it takes a little tweaking or you get weird answers. I checked the distances using Google earth to make sure I was not too far off, and it agreed within 25 miles in all cases.

The landfall time calculations are just distance in nautical miles divided by forward speed in knots = hours to landfall, divided by 24 for days, then the spreadsheet does a calendar calculation to get the actual date and time. Then I count on my fingers to make sure I'm in the ballpark.