ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[vacanechaser]

Well I take this no more seriously then some of the models that did suggest a US landfall could happen...

That being said recurve chances could really increase again if the GFS ensembles back yet further east on the 18z, getting close to the time now where the future track will become much more clear.

Wonder how strong the tropical models will go, not common the globals are actually stronger with the system then the tropical models!

the 18z run has no new data ingested if i am correct... it is just an extension of the 12z run... 6z and 18z really mean nothing... 0z and 12z are the runs to watch



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

Yeah however the 18z can be very good with spotting trends sometimes before the other runs do, much to my annoyance during the winter months!

[gatorcane]

Regarding a USA impact, looks like only two models really bend it west at this point: HWRF and NOGAPS. All of the other ones including ECMWF and GFS recurve it comfortably away from the CONUS. Again, we are back to Bermuda possibly being in the path, maybe Novia Scotia, but the trends today are looking good for the USA.

[KWT]

Not only that Gatorcane but the Nogaps doesn't get as far north as this one is till about 45W...its too far south to start with from the looks of things.

So really only the HWRF goes with the idea of it bending back west and I bet if it were to ramp up to any big extent the HWRF would also curve up again.

[KWT]

18z GFS ensembles also follow the 18z operational run...chances of recurving shooting back up again from 70% to possibly as high as 80-85% again and even that maybe on the low side given the north jog today and what history suggests for a strengthening system.

[Ivanhater]

KWT, I think you have exceeded to term recurve for the day

We get it

[KWT]

Haha your to right but I need to get my quota in before the models shift back westwards again!

Honestly though things can and probably will shift about still, though the fact the ECM ensembles now seem to be further east as well overall (though a few still get away) does boost my confidence in the solution.

Now as for Bermuda, despite the east shift you are nowhere near out of the woods yet...and to be fair maybe still a little too soon to declare the E.coast ok as well!

[vacanechaser]

KWT, I think you have exceeded to term recurve for the day

We get it

no doubt!! lol... you still, regardless of models at this time frame can say it will recurve... it is just way to early... i agree, the models say it... but we have seen this before and things can change...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

Without a doubt its too early to say, but heck its become something of a trademark with this storm and me now!

Wonder how many stray runs we have for the 18z GFS ensembles this time round...

[ConvergenceZone]

no doubt!! lol... you still, regardless of models at this time frame can say it will recurve... it is just way to early... i agree, the models say it... but we have seen this before and things can change...

vacanechaser, keep in mind also that there have been plenty of times that the models have called for a recurve, and there's been tons of talk from people here about it not recurving, but then the storm went ahead and recurved anyway, just as the models suggested...

I couple of the mets also posted today explaining that it's not so much that the storms is busting through a high, it's just that all the storm needs to find is a little weakeness in that high and it's going to take advantage of it....

With that said, yes, there's always a slim outside chance that the models aren't reading the pattern correctly, but when most of the models are in agreement except a couple, then that chance of the models being wrong, diminishes even further.....

[KWT]

CZ, the reason I was so keen to jump on the models this time round is I remember with Bill what happened last year, I kept on backing the southern option right till it became obvious it wouldn't happen...I learnt my lesson then.

Waiting for the 18z HWRF to see whether it keeps its bending back idea, not far from being a outlier again now after some brief support this morning...

[gatorcane]

ConvergenceZone I hear you on this. Seems that if a particular model is showing a recurve, some try to find every reason why it is a wrong solution. But those models that hint at no recurve are heralded and focused on more.

You can usually get an idea if models have shifted one way or another by looking at the number of people online browsing the forum. If the trend in those online has decreased typically the models have trended towards a recurve.

[vacanechaser]

ConvergenceZone I hear you on this. Seems that if a particular model is showing a recurve, some try to find every reason why it is a wrong solution. But those models that hint at no recurve are heralded and focused on more.

You can usually get an idea if models have shifted one way or another by looking at the number of people online browsing the forum. If the trend in those online has decreased typically the models have trended towards a recurve.

i agree and have not said i support one over another at this point... i am just saying that it is still to early to know for sure... and we have seen this go on for years on here... with every new run, oh, its a fish, oh its headed west, for it to change again the very next run... sometimes, you have to just sit back and see what happens and not swing one way or the other with every single solitary run of ever model... maybe that causes the trend in traffic to decrease as well.... they get tired of seeing it from the same folks over and over regarless of what happens... and dont take that as a slam on anyone... i am just throwing my 2 cents into the mix...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

18z HWRF is still further west though only bends back to a WNW/NW type heading this time round...

However its WAY too weak even from the start with this one and doesn't get upto 35kts for another 18-30hrs which is obviously way too slow given its probably above that already....though even the slow to ramp up HWRF gets to 77kts this time round.

In other words, the 18z HWRF is one for the heap!

[CalmBeforeStorm]

ConvergenceZone I hear you on this. Seems that if a particular model is showing a recurve, some try to find every reason why it is a wrong solution. But those models that hint at no recurve are heralded and focused on more.

You can usually get an idea if models have shifted one way or another by looking at the number of people online browsing the forum. If the trend in those online has decreased typically the models have trended towards a recurve.

i agree and have not said i support one over another at this point... i am just saying that it is still to early to know for sure... and we have seen this go on for years on here... with every new run, oh, its a fish, oh its headed west, for it to change again the very next run... sometimes, you have to just sit back and see what happens and not swing one way or the other with every single solitary run of ever model... maybe that causes the trend in traffic to decrease as well.... they get tired of seeing it from the same folks over and over regarless of what happens... and dont take that as a slam on anyone... i am just throwing my 2 cents into the mix...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I agree. Even if the models were all in agreement right now on, say, a Puerto Rico hit, it would be beyond their range of accuracy and the result should be looked upon with suspicion. Model agreement at the long range does not imply model accuracy.

[KWT]

Whilst you are right about that CBS the trough that first tugs this one towards the NW is now just 72hrs away or so...now I can understand people saying I was hasty earlier on because we were way out at 168hrs or so but now we are getting to the timeframe where really only small changes should occur, though obviously anything can and does still happen in the tropics and sometimes storms don't do what they are told!

GFDL lifts this one NNW at 55W btw...

[hurricaneCW]

The logic still hasn't changed though, a massive high is still going to move off of the east coast. The reason why models curve it east is because they turn it too far north to feel the building ridge and head back west. I wouldn't be surprised to see more shifting tonight and tomorrow.

[KWT]

I think most models are starting to tune into the fact this one will actually be a powerful hurricane as well, remember the ECM went west when it had a weaker system and even the GFS trended weaker recently but now they have both trended stronger they have the system latching onto the trough better and thus the recurve occurs.

[ROCK]

18z HWRF is still further west though only bends back to a WNW/NW type heading this time round...

However its WAY too weak even from the start with this one and doesn't get upto 35kts for another 18-30hrs which is obviously way too slow given its probably above that already....though even the slow to ramp up HWRF gets to 77kts this time round.

In other words, the 18z HWRF is one for the heap!

when was the HWRF and for that matter the GFDL any more than entertainment purposes with their intensity forecasts...both have been north biased and lousy all season...when was the last time any one of these showed a rogue solution that turned out to be right..I cant recall....ECM and CMC seem to be the front runners in seeing trends.....

[ROCK]

I think most models are starting to tune into the fact this one will actually be a powerful hurricane as well, remember the ECM went west when it had a weaker system and even the GFS trended weaker recently but now they have both trended stronger they have the system latching onto the trough better and thus the recurve occurs.

NHC is saying moderate strengthening over the next couple of days due to subsidence to the north and shear....any deviation west in the short term has major impacts in the longe range.....we watch and wait...