ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

One thing for sure: we will probably have to deal with Dangerous Danielle next week...

[Aric Dunn]

I have a feeling the huge convective blob will disappear by tomorrow morning and the center will be exposed again. It always seems to happen in the morning, but at least this one has a strong LLC. For now it does appear to be slightly strengthening.

As it is unlikely the convection will maintain that much longer without diminishing and building again. the morning itself has nothing to do with it. if the shear drops off tonight then the center should not become exposed again.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at those steering currents, it appears headed straight for the islands, then a hard northerly turn...

the atmosphere is not static and the ridge is not solid like that. tropical systems ( all weather ) acts more like you moving your hand through a sink full of bubbles... if you push one way things move in response and things also push back. so the ridge is more like a big bubble that can be deformed.

Right, but the ridge should move westward as the Troughing does as well... right?

[MiamiHurricanes10]

ADT supports a 60mph TS.
SAB supports a 50mph TS.
Still waiting on TAFB.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at those steering currents, it appears headed straight for the islands, then a hard northerly turn...

the atmosphere is not static and the ridge is not solid like that. tropical systems ( all weather ) acts more like you moving your hand through a sink full of bubbles... if you push one way things move in response and things also push back. so the ridge is more like a big bubble that can be deformed.

Right, but the ridge should move westward as the Troughing does as well... right?

well "IF" the trough digs the western side of ridge will erode and slide east.

[SouthFloridawx]

So just depends on how amplified the trough is huh?

[cycloneye]

ADT supports a 60mph TS.
SAB supports a 50mph TS.
Still waiting on TAFB.

00z Best Track has 45 mph.

[Aric Dunn]

ADT supports a 60mph TS.
SAB supports a 50mph TS.
Still waiting on TAFB.

they may up it to 40 possibly 45 .. but given the lasted microwaves indicating the shear is still strong enough in the low to mid levels to create the classic wedge shape the convection (under the canopy) they may be a little conservative and only bump it to 40kts..

[Aric Dunn]

So just depends on how amplified the trough is huh?

exactly.. and current trends with the trough are showing any digging... actually slight lifting out a little early but we will have to see what happens with it over this critical next 24 to 36 hours as this is the time when the models that are still showing recurve have the trough digging slightly. Im actually watching the progression of the trough more than what danielle is doing lol..

[gatorcane]

Dry air is lurking off to the nw. The ULL to the nw of Danielle will drop sw as it hits the se periphery of the bermuda high. I think this dry air will keep danielle from rapidly intensifying the next couple of days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg

[MiamiHurricanes10]

ADT supports a 60mph TS.
SAB supports a 50mph TS.
Still waiting on TAFB.

00z Best Track has 45 mph.

Likely will go up to 50mph. The ATCF data is unofficial and subject to change.

For example, when the NHC classified 06L the ATCF site said it was still a TD.

[KWT]

ADT supports a 60mph TS.
SAB supports a 50mph TS.
Still waiting on TAFB.

they may up it to 40 possibly 45 .. but given the lasted microwaves indicating the shear is still strong enough in the low to mid levels to create the classic wedge shape the convection (under the canopy) they may be a little conservative and only bump it to 40kts..

I'd personnally up it to 45kts only because its a good middle ground. As you said Aric there is still some shear on it though if the LLC were to get under the convection this one could ramp up quite quickly given the deep convection it has. Still these system do tend to pulse and wane for a little before they become well stacked.

[cpdaman]

I'm def. not sold on Danielle's track but she is still at a low latitude and the ridge could building in stronger...with a shallower trough..so i'd stay aware anywhere from texas to greenland. back to your regular scheduled program.

[Blown Away]

I'm always amazed how unpredictable these storms are, just a few hours ago the center was exposed and we were not sure the TD would survive and now we have a nice looking TS. Looks like the 00z BAM models are right of the NHC track. Does anybody think the convection east of this system is going to develop?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[Vortex]

With the current trends of very deep convection of -80-85c and improving symetry by the hour I would not be surprised to find the first visibles in the morning indicating a developing eye...

[Aric Dunn]

With the current trends of very deep convection of -80-85c and improving symetry by the hour I would not be surprised to find the first visibles in the morning indicating a developing eye...

not unless the shear decreases..

[KWT]

Yeah it looks good right now in terms of convection but the system still isn;t quite stacked so no eye just yet!

That being said I've seen these sorts of systems get to 55-60kts with a slightly sheared presentation before so no reason why it can't continue to strengthen.

[cpdaman]

With the current trends of very deep convection of -80-85c and improving symetry by the hour I would not be surprised to find the first visibles in the morning indicating a developing eye...

not unless the shear decreases..

i would be more surprised to see a developing eye.....then a sheared system with low convection.....the deep convection is encouraging but this storm seems like it is right on the edge of a small sweet spot and i wouldn't be shocked to see this look poor in the a.m.

[terrapintransit]

[CrazyC83]

Latest AMSU measurement:

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
Sunday 22aug10 Time: 2108 UTC
Latitude: 13.85 Longitude: -35.29
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 19 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 1003 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 49 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.70
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.75
RMW: 139 km
RMW Source is: TPC
Environmental Pressure: 1012 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-16
ATCF data for Month: 08 Day: 22 Time (UTC): 1800

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu