ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[TheDreamTraveler]

It's way too early to be talking like some people are about hits and misses. We have no idea. Models are tools for guidance, not fortune-tellers.

But anyway, the IR loops are so impressive! These cold tops just won't quite! Intense!

Don't think it is too early at all. Models simply will not miss so bad that suddenly they show Florida as a target at this point. The synoptic setup is pretty clear - a shortwave rolls off the eastern conus in a few days from now that puts a big dent in the western Atlantic ridge. That causes Danielle to curve nw. Every model shows this solution with some small deviations between models.

Im glad your better at forecasting that far out than all the NHC..

Yeah, it's not like the NHC's newest path for Danielle hardly changed at all...right?

[wxman57]

All storms 1851-2009 that passed within 65nm of Danielle's current position in August and September. Climo certainly says recurve east of the U.S. is most likely.

[Aric Dunn]

you dont hear the NHC saying things like its for sure a fish... here is what it said from the 5pm discussion.. they are not even confident in the recurve..

" A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY DAY 3 COULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BUT DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES A NEW RIDGE TO ITS NORTH ON DAY 5."

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I find it funny that people come on the board and jump all over model forecasts they don't like calling the models garbage and worthless but with this storm they are taking the results as gospel. The fact is the results are unreliable past 2-3 days.

[blp]

So what is your take at this stage? I don't want to put words in your mouth but I am guessing by the graphic you believe U.S. will be safe on this one.

All storms 1851-2009 that passed within 65nm of Danielle's current position in August and September. Climo certainly says recurve east of the U.S. is most likely.

[gatorcane]

Latest disco indicates the nhc is thinking this hits the weakness in the ridge. No uncertainty at all

I agree with this forecast and think there is a low threat here to the usa

[TheDreamTraveler]

Model hugging is the worst thing anybody can do this far out. We're still practically 9 days out for the possibilities to change, and the models are never usually 100% right 3 days out. It's silly to automatically assume this storm is going to harmlessly recurve out to sea so soon. It's a very complicated scenario of a storm, with the possibilities being varied.

[Air Force Met]

Guys I think we need to let the pro met's chime in before we start making definitive comments about recurve or landfall threats. I notice that not one of the pro's has made a call on this one which leads me to believe that things downstream are not yet as clear cut to make certain determinations. We will have plenty of more model runs to sort this out. Let's sit back and enjoy the show because it has been a while since we have had anything decent to track.

I made a call...yesterday I think...its a re-curver. That is my opinion based on the models and climo (adding climo tracks with the short term upper air progs which should be fairly accurate). Given the trof that should be there...climo would indicate this is a recurver.

It would be very odd if all the globals were wrong on the strength of the trof.

Also...given its location RIGHT NOW...out of the 36 that have been within 60 miles in August and September...only 7 have impacted the US.

So...right off the bat...climo says this has a less than 20% chance of not being a fish (minus a Bermuda hit). If you just look at tropical storms inside that box...the numbers are 6 hits out of 32. That's also less than 20%.

So...climo says there is less than a 20% chance. All of the globals are showing a recurve due to a trof...

That is why I made the call yesterday (publicly on this board...privately on Friday I had a conversation with another met and we agreed this was a fish)...that this was a recurver. It is a possible threat to Bermuda...and has an outside shot at being a threat to eastern Canada. As far as the mainland goes...I would have to see a big change in the model runs...for a few runs in a row...before I would change that opinion.

One last thing...I did a calculation on climo based on the current NHC forecast. Looking at the current 5 day forecast point...and out 120 miles from that point...there are only 5 hits on the mainland out of 71 storms in that box. So...if the 5 day NHC track is even CLOSE (within 120 miles of track...disregard timing)...the odds go down to a 7% hit.

Just added that in there to show that it would take an extremely odd set of circumstances to take a storm from the NHC 5 day position and send it west to the mainland.

[Air Force Met]

So what is your take at this stage? I don't want to put words in your mouth but I am guessing by the graphic you believe U.S. will be safe on this one.

All storms 1851-2009 that passed within 65nm of Danielle's current position in August and September. Climo certainly says recurve east of the U.S. is most likely.

Funny...I was posting the same thing in words that he posted in a pic...although I used a different program to filter my data.

[blp]

Did anyone notice the new forecast points have a due west heading from 00Z to 06Z. I guess it confirms my what I thought I was seeing that this was heading more West than NW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

[Aric Dunn]

That is very agreeable AFM.

[cycloneye]

What may be a sure thing for the East Coast of U.S. to get indirect effects is a big swell event.

[gatorcane]

At this point now that the threat to the USA is close to nil at this point let's discuss this possibilities of this becoming a major. I think it has a chance!

[blp]

I appreciate your thoughts Air Force Met I missed your post yesterday if not I would have made light of it. Sounds quite reasonable.

Guys I think we need to let the pro met's chime in before we start making definitive comments about recurve or landfall threats. I notice that not one of the pro's has made a call on this one which leads me to believe that things downstream are not yet as clear cut to make certain determinations. We will have plenty of more model runs to sort this out. Let's sit back and enjoy the show because it has been a while since we have had anything decent to track.

I made a call...yesterday I think...its a re-curver. That is my opinion based on the models and climo (adding climo tracks with the short term upper air progs which should be fairly accurate). Given the trof that should be there...climo would indicate this is a recurver.

It would be very odd if all the globals were wrong on the strength of the trof.

Also...given its location RIGHT NOW...out of the 36 that have been within 60 miles in August and September...only 7 have impacted the US.

So...right off the bat...climo says this has a less than 20% chance of not being a fish (minus a Bermuda hit). If you just look at tropical storms inside that box...the numbers are 6 hits out of 32. That's also less than 20%.

So...climo says there is less than a 20% chance. All of the globals are showing a recurve due to a trof...

That is why I made the call yesterday (publicly on this board...privately on Friday I had a conversation with another met and we agreed this was a fish)...that this was a recurver. It is a possible threat to Bermuda...and has an outside shot at being a threat to eastern Canada. As far as the mainland goes...I would have to see a big change in the model runs...for a few runs in a row...before I would change that opinion.

One last thing...I did a calculation on climo based on the current NHC forecast. Looking at the current 5 day forecast point...and out 120 miles from that point...there are only 5 hits on the mainland out of 71 storms in that box. So...if the 5 day NHC track is even CLOSE (within 120 miles of track...disregard timing)...the odds go down to a 7% hit.

Just added that in there to show that it would take an extremely odd set of circumstances to take a storm from the NHC 5 day position and send it west to the mainland.

[cycloneye]

Is not yet D-MAX and this is how it looks.

[ConvergenceZone]

the outflow on this is really looking good. Now that we know this won't effect the USA, I'm hoping for a major buzzsaw....

[AdamFirst]

Wouldn't be surprised at all if we see hurricane danielle tomorrow afternoon rather than Tuesday evening.

[thetruesms]

Well, after 57 and AFM have chimed in, I don't suppose there's much more I can add, but I'll lend my support. Given where it is, the climo for that area, and some very strong model support for a reasonable evolution, a recurve would appear to be the best forecast at this point. Those in Bermuda should be paying the closest attention. Now, that's not to say everyone else can pack it in and ignore, because that would just be dumb. There's always the outlier that will break the mold, and I could construct plausible hypotheticals for other paths. But if I've got a gun to my head, I'm playing the odds and going with a recurver.

edit - I'm going to be rooting for a monster that manages to miss everyone and give us some really nice satellite shots

[Ptarmigan]

Based on the satellite presentation, I think Danielle is undergoing rapid intensification. I think we could see Hurricane Danielle by tomorrow. I notice rapid intensification happens at night. Opal, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Ike underwent rapid intensification at night.

[cycloneye]

I'm going to be rooting for a monster that manages to miss everyone and give us some really nice satellite shots

Exactly. Those open sea buzzaw type hurricanes are the best to see as mother nature does it's job.