ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[Ikester]

Well this is one of a few times you'll hear from me regarding this system. This is yawn city population 1. You can't ignore run after run after run after run after run after run after run of a fish storm. It is clear with the position of the Bermuda High this year, CV storms will be hard pressed to make it past 60 west. Just my opinion. Call me when we have a true threat.

[cpdaman]

i wouldn't say this won't be a frances with such confidence.....but it's my opinion

the reason why is i see some usefullness in the 84 hr nam for troughs and highs building in

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, I think everyone including me is finally sold on a recurve now........no doubt about it...
Last night was interesting though. For awhile there it looks like all the models were going to swing west, but that happens sometimes in the tropics....

[TheDreamTraveler]

Yep, I think everyone including me is finally sold on a recurve now........no doubt about it...
Last night was interesting though. For awhile there it looks like all the models were going to swing west, but that happens sometimes in the tropics....

I'm not sold on a recurve, but it looks to be the best trend right now. I'd rather keep my mind open to the possibilities down the road, considering this is still 10 days out. Also the fact that the models have been flip flopping. For example, 2 days ago we were sold on a recurve, then a lot were sold on it heading west, and now we're back to recurving. I'm not saying it won't recurve, but there's a lot that can happen in 10 days.

[dixiebreeze]

Did you notice? The 2010 Aug 22 18Z run shows Danielle curving out to sea well east of Bermuda. But it also shows a hurricane suddenly blossoming in the GOM about Sept 6, striking Florida in a rare place - Cedar Key, crossing over to the Atlantic coast as a major hurricane going up the Georgia and South Carolina coasts and the Outer Banks. The question is whether this upstart model storm will make it to the 00Z run tonight.

Not so rare in Cedar Key: In 1950, Hurricane Easy, a category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, looped around Cedar Key three times before finally making landfall, dumping 38 inches of rain and destroying two thirds of the homes. Luckily, the storm came ashore at low tide, so the surge was only 5 feet.[17]

Hurricane Elena followed a similar path in 1985, but did not make landfall. Packing 115 mph winds, the storm churned for two days in the Gulf, 50 miles to the west, battering the waterfront. All the businesses and restaurants on Dock Street were either damaged or destroyed and a section of the seawall collapsed.[17]

1896 Hurricane and a 10 foot tidal wave crossed the island. Faber mill was destroyed. Island was abandoned by most. Eventually all I inhabitants left the island.

[TheDreamTraveler]

And this is why I wasn't 100% sold on the recurving. As you can see the NHC has only shifted the path of the storm slightly east from 5 PM. And it's the slightest at best.

[gatorcane]

00Z gfs out shortly. I expect it to show recurve especially as danielle continues to gain lattitude moving nw.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, I think everyone including me is finally sold on a recurve now........no doubt about it...
Last night was interesting though. For awhile there it looks like all the models were going to swing west, but that happens sometimes in the tropics....

I'm not sold on a recurve, but it looks to be the best trend right now. I'd rather keep my mind open to the possibilities down the road, considering this is still 10 days out. Also the fact that the models have been flip flopping. For example, 2 days ago we were sold on a recurve, then a lot were sold on it heading west, and now we're back to recurving. I'm not saying it won't recurve, but there's a lot that can happen in 10 days.

DreamTraveler, I think you meant that there's a lot that can happen in 5 days, because in 10 days, it will be way way too far north or northwest to
effect land.....

[dixiebreeze]

Interesting data about Frances: Hurricane Frances was a classic Cape-Verde type tropical cyclone that developed in the eastern Atlantic just west of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa.

Late on 24 August, a vigorous tropical wave that had migrated off the African coast became Tropical Depression Four in the eastern Atlantic. Upper level steering currents were not particularly strong, but Tropical Depression Four managed to putter along to the west at 10-20 mph for the next few days. Originally, National Hurricane Center forecast maps revealed that TD Four would begin moving in a more northwesterly fashion during the proceeding 24 to 36 hours. Frances did begin to turn towards the northwest, but only for a short period of time before an eastward-moving high pressure cell suppressed her track.

At the same time, warm ocean waters and light upper level winds produced an environment in which tropical disturbances thrive. Tropical Depression Four was no exception, and maintained its gradual intensification until becoming a hurricane on 26 August at 18 UTC (5 PM EDT). Frances continued strengthening while edging closer to the Bahamas, and reached its peak intensity on 31 August at 18 UTC with maximum sustained surface winds estimated to have been around 125 kts (145 mph) about 300 miles east-southeast of the Bahamas.3 Steering currents weakened as Frances approached the Bahamas and the Southeastern United States as another ridge began building to her west. Frances passed over the Bahamas as a potent Category 3 Hurricane, finally reaching Florida as a 105 mph Category 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale around 0500 UTC on 5 September.2

[gatorcane]

Based on the data we have now this will not be a Frances. I am very confident now it will not take a frances track into florida

[TheDreamTraveler]

Yep, I think everyone including me is finally sold on a recurve now........no doubt about it...
Last night was interesting though. For awhile there it looks like all the models were going to swing west, but that happens sometimes in the tropics....

I'm not sold on a recurve, but it looks to be the best trend right now. I'd rather keep my mind open to the possibilities down the road, considering this is still 10 days out. Also the fact that the models have been flip flopping. For example, 2 days ago we were sold on a recurve, then a lot were sold on it heading west, and now we're back to recurving. I'm not saying it won't recurve, but there's a lot that can happen in 10 days.

DreamTraveler, I think you meant that there's a lot that can happen in 5 days, because in 10 days, it will be way way too far north or northwest to
effect land.....

More like 6 or 7 days, and that's not if the storm happens to stall out.

[dixiebreeze]

I hope not gatorcane! Frances uprooted a huge oak tree in our yard.

[CourierPR]

Based on the data we have now this will not be a Frances. I am very confident now it will not take a frances track into florida

You were also very confident that Alex would be no stronger than a depression.

[SeminoleWind]

is it just me or does it look like its a bit south of the forecast points set by the nhc?

[AtlanticWind]

Depends on where the center is , hard to tell right now.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS doesn't reach 60W at 144 hours.

[cycloneye]

162 hours.

[South Texas Storms]

looks like it recurves again on this run

[superfly]

Fish. Next.

[bob rulz]

What west is Bermuda at?