ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[supercane]

Hamilton's at 32°18′N 64°47′W per Wikipedia.

[cycloneye]

What west is Bermuda at?

32N-64W

[hurricanetrack]

Here is my two cents and this may not be much more than a "duh" observation- but here it is: If Danielle is NOT at 33N and ~58W in 144 hours by oh say, 300 miles, and instead is sitting at 26N and 60W, the phrase "ashen faces" may be dug up out of the Storm2k vault. You do remember THAT back in 2003 don't you? I am seeing what everyone else is, but I do know too that it appears to be a race between the enormous heat ridge coming after this trough lifts out and Danielle getting to 26N and 60W when that happens. She just may catch the bus and ride it to the Azores, but if not, beach swells could be the least of our worries.

[Wx_Warrior]

0z EURO 96h

[Wx_Warrior]

120H

[george_r_1961]

I wouldnt say the US is completely out of the woods although the chances of any impact appear small at this time.

[KWT]

Pretty obvious this is a recurver now, the more northerly movement yesterday really has made a world of difference to the models it seems as they have shunted eastwards again since then.

[jconsor]

Yesterday's NW jog has little or nothing to do with the shift in the longer-range tracks. Instead, it's the fact that the storm has strengthened significantly, and the models are now initializing it as a deeper system and thus more influenced by deep-layer winds vs. shallow low-level winds.

[KWT]

Yeah thats true but I still argue in this set-up every bit further north helps with the connection to the trough, though no doubt the strength of the system probably is more significant.

In truth this never looked like being a E.Coast threat and even the threat to Bermuda is decreasing now, though thats within the realm that needs to be watched still.

[ColinDelia]

Question re: model initialization

The 6z GFS seems to initialize this at 1005 mb.
The NHC estimates 997 mb
the 11pm advisory estimate was 1000 mb

Is 1005 mb the initial central pressure estimate by the GFS or am I missing something?

[KWT]

00z GFDL suggests motion will bend back to the WNW for a while, then a bit northwards followed by another kink back to the WNW briefly before it probably enters a final recurve pattern.

Also 00z GFDL takes this one to major hurricane strength.

[KWT]

06z GFS looks pretty much the same as it did before with it recurving just before 60W, though worth noting that it as well as some other models make this a monster extratropical storm as it swings ENE.

[I Scream Cone]

If the initialization of the center is incorrect then the recurve could happen later, which is what I'm guessing will happen. I just believe that the center if off and that the current movement has more of a westerly component.

[hurricaneCW]

Doesn't look like much after Danielle is gone.

[KWT]

Ah you never know HCW, I think we will get a weak system behind this one and if it were to form south enough then it'd probably not follow what the GFS wants which is an early recurve...

Still thats for another thread!

ISC, possibly and Bermuda IMO need to watch still, they should not keep thier eyes off it!

[hurricaneCW]

Ah you never know HCW, I think we will get a weak system behind this one and if it were to form south enough then it'd probably not follow what the GFS wants which is an early recurve...

Still thats for another thread!

ISC, possibly and Bermuda IMO need to watch still, they should not keep thier eyes off it!

I suppose, the wave that just came off looks really good but I'm not sure how it would interact with Danielle, although they seem far apart enough unless Danielle becomes massive and shreds it apart.

[ColinDelia]

Not to get too far off topic but in 2005 the GFS only correctly predicted tropical formation 5 days in advance 30% of the time (and that was better than the other models). I imagine it has improved some but there will certainly be many shorter period unexpected TCs still.

[Florida1118]

Yesterday I was a little worried about the western turn but now I feel better looking at the models.

[jimvb]

The 2010 Aug 23 06Z run is out. Still fish. Danielle recurves away from land, and another tropical system following it does the same; an extratropical storm comes from the north and makes a neat triangle with Danielle and its follower. A tropical system looks like it forms near E Cuba and moves NNW. The storm in the GOM has disappeared.

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 231237
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1237 UTC MON AUG 23 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE (AL062010) 20100823 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100823  1200   100824  0000   100824  1200   100825  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.8N  38.7W   15.7N  40.9W   17.2N  43.6W   19.1N  46.5W
BAMD    14.8N  38.7W   15.8N  41.3W   17.0N  43.6W   18.9N  45.7W
BAMM    14.8N  38.7W   15.9N  41.1W   17.2N  43.8W   19.1N  46.4W
LBAR    14.8N  38.7W   15.8N  41.3W   17.0N  44.3W   18.4N  47.3W
SHIP        50KTS          62KTS          74KTS          82KTS
DSHP        50KTS          62KTS          74KTS          82KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100825  1200   100826  1200   100827  1200   100828  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.9N  49.6W   22.8N  53.3W   25.1N  52.0W   31.0N  51.5W
BAMD    21.1N  47.6W   26.3N  50.4W   30.3N  51.4W   34.1N  52.8W
BAMM    21.0N  48.9W   24.1N  52.2W   26.7N  52.2W   31.3N  51.7W
LBAR    19.8N  50.3W   23.7N  54.2W   28.0N  54.8W   31.4N  53.9W
SHIP        89KTS          95KTS          91KTS          88KTS
DSHP        89KTS          95KTS          91KTS          88KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.8N LONCUR =  38.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =  13.9N LONM12 =  35.9W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  12.2N LONM24 =  33.9W
WNDCUR =   50KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =   40KT
CENPRS =  994MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   45NM RD34SE =   45NM RD34SW =   60NM RD34NW =  60NM