What model will be the king of 2010???

[StormTracker]

Seeing as though we have invests popping in almost every basin now, I got the idea of taking a poll to see which model is giving the best predictions thus far, and if one of them will be the reining king of models at the end of the 2010 hurricane season! (NAM not included) jk Ivan!!! I know everyone pretty much has a favorite model (excluding me), and some models do a better job in certain areas than others, but let's see if there really is one that stands out and does an exceptional job overall! Your input is more than welcome! Thanks...ST

[blp]

My opinion would be the that the EURO is still the best in terms of track for a developed system. The CMC has done a good job this year on track and cyclogensis but as has been the case in the past years overdevelops systems. The GFS PARA has not been bad so far but the jury is still out and we need to see what it does during the peak season.

Seeing as though we have invests popping in almost every basin now, I got the idea of taking a poll to see which model is giving the best predictions thus far, and if one of them will be the reining king of models at the end of the 2010 hurricane season! (NAM not included) jk Ivan!!! I know everyone pretty much has a favorite model (excluding me), and some models do a better job in certain areas than others, but let's see if there really is one that stands out and does an exceptional job overall! Your input is more than welcome! Thanks...ST

[cycloneye]

My preferences:

1-ECMWF
2-CMC
3-GFS
4-NOGAPS
5-UKMET

[KWT]

CMC has done very well I have to admit and IF they can sort out the issues with the overdigging of troughs and producing way too many false signals, then it'd even give the Euro a run for its money...of course thats possibly a while away yet.

[Macrocane]

I think that the Canadian has been very good this season, it has had some false alarms (it always does) but IMO it is good to sniff development beofre other models and it has been good with the tracks. The Euro has not been that good with cyclogenesis neither with intensity but it has been good withthe track. My list goes like this:

1. ECMWF and CMC
2. GFS
3. NOGAPS and UKMET

[StormTracker]

Ok, showing some good agreement so far!

[StormTracker]

I guess maybe when we get a real storm to track, there will be more input given on this subject!

[HurrMark]

Euro has been the best so far, I think...otherwise, it has been a tossup (NOGAPS probably last).

[littlevince]

It's not about tropical cyclogenesis, but anyway, it's the only thing we have to compare models day by day:


Anomaly correlations for 5-day forecasts of 500-hPa heights for various models verifying during the last 31 days
5 days


Anomaly correlations for 5-day forecasts of 500-hPa heights for various models verifying during the last 31 days
6 days



Rms vector wind errors for 3-day forecasts of winds at two levels in the tropics, verifying during the last 31 days


Anomaly correlations for 3-day forecasts of windspeed at two levels in the tropics, verifying during the last 31 days, 200 mb (top) and 850 mb (bottom)

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Great post! The requirements for my list is to see how good they do at forecasting tropical cyclogenesis, track, and intensity. My list is as follows:

1. ECMWF
2. GFS
3. CMC
4. UKMET
5. NAM (even though I do not use it with the tropics unless the area of interest is located near the U.S)
6. NOGAPS

[thetruesms]

http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/4814/87395261.gif

Remember the easterly surge issue that cropped up when the new GFS went in? It really jumps out in this analysis, doesn't it?

[blp]

The long range CFS a month ago was predicting the weakness that has persisted in August around 60W and it continues to forecast that weakness well in to September. If that holds up then the CFS to me is the real king because to get the overall pattern right that far in advance is impressive.

[StormTracker]

Thanks for all of the input so far! I think this info will benefit everyone on the no.1 weather forum on the WWW, some how, some way! Pro-Mets feel free to chime in also! Keep the opinions comin'!!!

[angelabrookss]

euro is the best forever !
i think it will retain its position!

[wxman57]

Actually, my interpretation is that the Euro has been one of the worst so far (except for NOGAPS, of course). It's been the west outlier on all 6 systems most of the time, and it's been wrong. Too far south/west with landfall for Alex, TD 2, Bonnie, Colin (to Houston??), and TD 5 (TX, too). Took TD 6 to the Bahamas a few days ago, while the other models maintained the recurve and out to sea.

Canadian has actually done very well this year, as it did last year.

[Hurrilurker]

Interesting graphs, it looks like the Canadian model is significantly more accurate at the 850 mb level for windspeed while being slightly more accurate at 200 mb.

[AJC3]

Interesting graphs, it looks like the Canadian model is significantly more accurate at the 850 mb level for windspeed while being slightly more accurate at 200 mb.

Actually, you're interpreting those graphs bass ackwards. An anomaly correlation score of 1.0 is a perfect forecast. From mid July to mid August, the Canadian model had the lowest AC score (.727) for its day-3 forecasts of 850 MB windspeeds between 20N and 20S, and thus the greatest error of all the models.

[StormTracker]

Ok guyz & gyrlz now that the switch has really been flipped to the "ON" position, let's hear from you about your favorite model and how it's doing with these systems!

[Macrocane]

With the development of Danielle, Earl, Fiona and Gaston I've changed my mind about the models, now my list is different:

1. GFS
2. CMC
3. UKMET
4. ECMWF
5. NOGAPS

[Migle]

With the development of Danielle, Earl, Fiona and Gaston I've changed my mind about the models, now my list is different:

1. GFS
2. CMC
3. UKMET
4. ECMWF
5. NOGAPS

Wow, putting the UKMET ahead of the EURO. EURO has shown it's the great model alot of members on here think. Well, I agree with that list except maybe swapping the ECMWF and UKMET.