ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[cycloneye]

This invest is for wave behind Danielle so post away.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008231554
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2010, DB, O, 2010082312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962010
AL, 96, 2010082212, , BEST, 0, 110N, 135W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010082218, , BEST, 0, 110N, 145W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010082300, , BEST, 0, 110N, 155W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010082306, , BEST, 0, 110N, 165W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010082312, , BEST, 0, 110N, 175W, 20, 1008

Past discussions of this wave at Talking Tropics Forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109085&start=0

[Ivanhater]

From what I have seen, it looks to follow the same weakness as Danielle, of course too soon to speculate exactly.

[KWT]

Well that was to be expected really, probably a more uncertain set-up then Danielle as alot of things could happen.

No way I call for a early recurve this time round, not just yet...though to be fair it likely will recurve!

[srainhoutx]

Not surprised at all. Satellite presentation is rather impressive. A sleeper system that has not had that much attention.

[ConvergenceZone]

if it does recurve, then it's just going to be a sheared mess anyway due to following
Danielle.

[KWT]

Indeed I don't think this one will be too strong, though if some of the models are right this may well be a threat to the CV Islands...so may not be a total recurve!

[Ivanhater]

[KWT]

Looks like its well on its way to becoming a depression already, I'd expect a code orange.

A quick developer means the CV Islands could be at risk.

[Aric Dunn]

probably one of the best looking waves to come off africa in a few years.

[Aric Dunn]

there is already a bit of a banding feature developing on the northern quad..

[StormClouds63]

Great looking system for an invest ... if his name is Earl ... he already looks better on satellite than Bonnie and Colin. If it develops quickly, would certainly find the weakness and turn north, right?

[CrazyC83]

It's well south of Cape Verde though? unless it turns very quickly...

[abajan]

Oh my... Seems like the proverbial “lid” has finally come off, peeps!
96L sure looks like he means business.

A couple weeks ago didn’t Accuweather predict this kind of setup around the 23rd? Well, today’s the 23rd.

[Aric Dunn]

Great looking system for an invest ... if his name is Earl ... he already looks better on satellite than Bonnie and Colin. If it develops quickly, would certainly find the weakness and turn north, right?

ill post this here .. i just posted it in the model thread..

well in most cases if the second system is close enough to the first it will follow the weakness. however there is still some strong westerly flow ( same with danielle at first) that could hold the system in place a little longer. if you remember when danielle was developing the models every run wanted to kick it out of the iTCZ very quickly and we know it takes time. so that will be what to watch with this system.

[HURAKAN]

old pic but looks good

[SFLcane]

Give me something real to track...Wave looks very well organized structure wise and see no reason why this won't become a TS in time. Appears to turn into the weakness and out to sea per early 12z model runs.

[Aric Dunn]

Seriously It may end up being one of the farthest east developing systems.
I see early banding features starting and plenty of evidence for a weak LLC with the MLC quite evident.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

[ColinDelia]

SHIPS keeps the shear under 10 knots until 108 hours.
Brings the winds to 72 knots in 96 hours

Uses BAMM for track

[Aric Dunn]

I smell 40% at the next TWO... maybe 50%

well 50% might be a little high.

[fci]

This is the one that a map wxman showed in the Danielle thread running behind her.