ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Not bad looking at first glance.

[Vortex]

I'll be watching Earl BUT its the wave that moves off late this week/next week that im concerned about...

[Ivanhater]

[ROCK]

looks like a player....I have seen systems splash down like this and go to TD before....probably already is one...

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Buck]

Hard to tell for sure, but looks to be a little spin in it. Conditions seem alright too. I'm guessing if convection persists, the chance will be upped from 10% at 5pm.

[Brent]

Wow 40%. This looks like Earl IMO.

[Buck]

Wow, quick!

[SoupBone]

I'd eat my right shoe if this doesn't become Earl. Amazing how good it looks after only being out over the water for a very short time.

[breaking wind]

Earl will likely be on the same train track as Danielle to fish spinner junction.

[Aric Dunn]

well I figured they would up it to at least 40% ... there are more than enough indications of a developing surface circ..

[micktooth]

I'll be watching Earl BUT its the wave that moves off late this week/next week that im concerned about...

Do you have a link that shows these other waves over Africa. The ones I had don't work any more. Thanks!

[cycloneye]

I'll be watching Earl BUT its the wave that moves off late this week/next week that im concerned about...

Do you have a link that shows these other waves over Africa. The ones I had don't work any more. Thanks!

Well,this is off-topic but here is the link that you have to go to see many images from Africa that update every 15 minutes.

http://www.sat24.com

[Aric Dunn]

Exellent Microwave pass... clearly showing some weak banding developing and plenty of curvature in the low levels.. and a little older ASCAT image showing broad circulation... from that ASCAT image till now things seem to have organized a little more.

[tolakram]

Satellite loop: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

Shift drag to zoom. Right now 9 frame loop looks good but night is falling fast. On this loop looks like Danielle is forming an eye on the last frame.

[thetruesms]

Well geez, go to lunch, get a little work done, and suddenly we've got a code orange and an Invest designation

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 96, 2010082318, , BEST, 0, 113N, 173W, 25, 1007

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[bob rulz]

WOW, that is very impressive! I can't remember the last time I actually saw a tropical wave burst immediately upon moving off the coast.

[CrazyC83]

TD7 at 5 pm perhaps? Would any watches/warnings be necessary if they upgraded now?

[StormClouds63]

From this perspective, future "my name is Earl" looks quite impressive as well.