ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[ROCK]

that microwave image really shows how sheared she was during her younger days....then it stacks towards the end....really cool looking...

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[cycloneye]

Sandy, I use another word to describe it,Excellent.

[Brent]

Finally, a hurricane in the Atlantic!

[Buck]

ACE boost here we come!

[wxman57]

ok wxman57, wnw.

I believe the 11am advisory was 15.1 now at 15.2.

Do you think this is a 100% Ocean Storm?

100%? Nope. Eventually what's left of it will impact Europe. Slight chance of a Bermuda impact while tropical. Caribbean looks in the clear, and almost certainly the U.S. East Coast is in the clear. Can't say there's 0% chance of an impact on the U.S. East Coast, but it's not far above zero.

If you look at the text at the bottom of the latest model guidance you're given the current movement and past 12-hr movement (M12 = current minus 12 hrs):

LATCUR = 15.2N LONCUR = 40.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 37.3W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

That's about the speed and heading I get measuring it in GARP.

[terrapintransit]

Judging from this image...It appears we even have a smile from the Ole' gal as well....hehe

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/tc_pages/thumbnails/thumbs/tc10/ATL/06L.DANIELLE/amsre/89hw/thumb/20100823.1620.aqua1.x.89hw.06LDANIELLE.60kts-991mb-152N-407W.75pc.jpg
Looking good

[Nimbus]

LATCUR = 15.2N LONCUR = 40.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

She is starting to feel the effects of the western ridge element so the official track may need to be adjusted again at 5 PM. Even if the GFS weakness verifies Bermuda could still be in danger.

[hurricanefloyd5]

LOOKS TO BE MOVING A BIT MORE WESTWARD ON THE LAST FEW FRAMES



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[cycloneye]

Beautiful sunset.

[HURAKAN]

boom boom pow

[thetruesms]

Southern half obviously looking better than the northern half, but overall quite pretty

[Dean4Storms]

She does not appear to be gaining much latitude the last few hours.

[Ivanhater]

[terrapintransit]

She does not appear to be gaining much latitude the last few hours.

The GFS is also starting to show a slight westward bend at the end as well...

[AdamFirst]

She does not appear to be gaining much latitude the last few hours.

The GFS is also starting to show a slight westward bend at the end as well...

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... _model.gif

That's because the long-range GFS brings about a freak scenario where it slams head first into the ridge, and drifts to the south-southwest while eating future Earl (96L currently). You can see that craziness in the models thread.

[ColinDelia]

The interaction with the ULL around 25N, 47 W could be really interesting

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 41.5W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[ColinDelia]

AdamFirst, that was really bizarre from 192 to 384 hrs

[cpdaman]

yes i agree the interaction with the TUTT (uLL) will be very intersting to watch

scuse' my ignorance but won't this ultimately weaken the storm via increased shear and turn it NW.

but is there anything to watch...i.e the storm running out below of the feature?

or the ULL feature's direction being altered by what ever the heck is appearing to move Nw at 25/40?

am i in left field ?