ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Rapid Intensification going on

THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME MORE AXISYMMETRIC OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...INDICATING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS NOW RELAXING. A 1620 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A DISTINCT
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION THAT IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION. DESPITE THAT
STRUCTURE...DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO T4.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND DANIELLE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THAT BASIS. THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES A 25-KT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THEN
LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY TO THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR HURRICANE BY 48
HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN THE GFDL AND
HWRF.

[cycloneye]

Look at those m's.

[cycloneye]

I see the cone a little more closer to Bermuda.

[ColinDelia]

yes i agree the interaction with the TUTT (uLL) will be very intersting to watch

scuse' my ignorance but won't this ultimately weaken the storm via increased shear and turn it NW.

The interaction could cause it to strengthen or weaken. Here's a paper with a lot of interesting info.

"A Composite Study of the Interactions between Tropical Cyclones and Upper-Tropospheric Troughs"
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129%3C2570:ACSOTI%3E2.0.CO;2

[x-y-no]

THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF.

Haven't seen much mention of the FSU Superensemble this year - I was wondering what had happened to it ...

Seems it hasn't disappeared after all.

[thetruesms]

THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS.

7 mb in 6 hours, NHC playing a little fast and loose with their RI criteria

Perhaps "entering a period . . ." was meant? Its presentation has improved dramatically as of very recently.

[cpdaman]

THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF.

Haven't seen much mention of the FSU Superensemble this year - I was wondering what had happened to it ...

Seems it hasn't disappeared after all.

where's the UM superensemble? jk

sir while your on ....do you think anything "funny" i.e track shift...not forecast by the models is POSSible via the hurricane's interaction with the tutt.....and what that could be.

[TheBurn]

[thetruesms]

Feature's so bright, I gotta wear shades

[terrapintransit]

:uarrow: Feature's so bright, I gotta wear shades

NICE ONE

[CrazyC83]

THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS.

7 mb in 6 hours, NHC playing a little fast and loose with their RI criteria

Perhaps "entering a period . . ." was meant? Its presentation has improved dramatically as of very recently.

The 7 mb in 6 hours is purely estimated on Dvorak pressure-wind relationships.

[cpdaman]

looks like a 3hr heading of 275 or so (280 max)

anyone agree

[ROCK]

looks like a 3hr heading of 275 or so (280 max)

anyone agree

she is feeling out the Ridge now...its not like those are perfectly smooth...

[hurricaneCW]

I'm hoping she pops out a nice clear eye overnight, it makes wobble watching a lot more fun. I agree that any westward adjustment would put Bermuda in danger. How much latitude it gains in the next 48 will be crucial to that.

[cycloneye]

Danielle starts to rack up the ACE numbers for the Atlantic. Finnally the basin gets into double figures.

Code: Select all

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 1.3
Total  10.395


[Ivanhater]

[Riptide]

[img]http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/temp/movie.gif

It looks Danielle is surfing 15N. Makes sense based on this steering chart.

[cpdaman]

is the ULL supposed to be digging SW'ward? and what is that appendage to the east of ULL directly N of danielle by several hundred miles......

[KWT]

Ah good to see this become a hurricane, its looking good right now and wouldn't surprise me to rather race through Category-1 phase.

[thetruesms]

The 7 mb in 6 hours is purely estimated on Dvorak pressure-wind relationships.

Certainly true, but the criteria is based off of what gets put in advisories/best track, so that's what I'll use, as uncertain as it may be