ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

nice pic

[CrazyC83]

Looks better than Bonnie or Colin ever did...I'd eat crow if this RI'd before Cape Verde and hit them hard...

[Cryomaniac]

TD7 at 5 pm perhaps? Would any watches/warnings be necessary if they upgraded now?

Cape Verde presumably.

I can't see it being upgraded though, solely based on where it is.

[Florida1118]

Dont they usually wait until the Convection is sustained and then upgrade it?

[Cryomaniac]

Dont they usually wait until the Convection is sustained and then upgrade it?

Yeah, it'll need 24 hours at least I would think.

[Frank2]

Be greatful - be VERY greatful for that trough out there (though I'm sure my HRD friends are disappointed because neither D nor E will be close enough for a long research flight, even from SJU, though perhaps later from BDA)...

Frank

[HURAKAN]

12z vorticity

[HURAKAN]

72 hours

[CrazyC83]

Be greatful - be VERY greatful for that trough out there (though I'm sure my HRD friends are disappointed because neither D nor E will be close enough for a long research flight, even from SJU, though perhaps later from BDA)...

Frank

They could move a plane to Cape Verde and fly from there, although that would take a lot of effort and expense.

[ROCK]

Be greatful - be VERY greatful for that trough out there (though I'm sure my HRD friends are disappointed because neither D nor E will be close enough for a long research flight, even from SJU, though perhaps later from BDA)...

Frank

I wouldnt be so sure Frank about a recurve...it wouldnt take much for Dee to exit stage right and the weakness to fill....nice big fat high off the EC to bridge with the BH looks plausible...

[Ivanhater]

Be greatful - be VERY greatful for that trough out there (though I'm sure my HRD friends are disappointed because neither D nor E will be close enough for a long research flight, even from SJU, though perhaps later from BDA)...

Frank

I wouldnt be so sure Frank about a recurve...it wouldnt take much for Dee to exit stage right and the weakness to fill....nice big fat high off the EC to bridge with the BH looks plausible...

Actually, not a far off scenario. Good bet, it could be 50/50. I mentioned in the model thread about the 12z Euro. Earl goes west until it hits the weakness and turns sharply north. All it would take is Danielle moving a bit faster and the door is closed with that strong high building off the East coast.

BTW, Danielle is moving faster than the NHC forecast already...

[CrazyC83]

Be greatful - be VERY greatful for that trough out there (though I'm sure my HRD friends are disappointed because neither D nor E will be close enough for a long research flight, even from SJU, though perhaps later from BDA)...

Frank

I wouldnt be so sure Frank about a recurve...it wouldnt take much for Dee to exit stage right and the weakness to fill....nice big fat high off the EC to bridge with the BH looks plausible...

Where would it go then if the ridge rebuilt with the ridge covering the east coast? Just stall out?

[Alacane2]

Dont they usually wait until the Convection is sustained and then upgrade it?

Yeah, it'll need 24 hours at least I would think.

I don't think it would necessarily have to have 24 hours prior to being upgraded. The following is from Hurricane Alberto (2000)'s TCR:
A well-developed tropical wave was observed in satellite imagery over central Africa on 30 July. This system progressed steadily westward and moved off the coast on 3 August. Development occurred quickly upon reaching the Atlantic, and the wave became Tropical Depression Three at 1800 UTC that day

[Cryomaniac]

Be greatful - be VERY greatful for that trough out there (though I'm sure my HRD friends are disappointed because neither D nor E will be close enough for a long research flight, even from SJU, though perhaps later from BDA)...

Frank

They could move a plane to Cape Verde and fly from there, although that would take a lot of effort and expense.

Have they ever done that?

[CrazyC83]

Dont they usually wait until the Convection is sustained and then upgrade it?

Yeah, it'll need 24 hours at least I would think.

I don't think it would necessarily have to have 24 hours prior to being upgraded. The following is from Hurricane Alberto (2000)'s TCR:
A well-developed tropical wave was observed in satellite imagery over central Africa on 30 July. This system progressed steadily westward and moved off the coast on 3 August. Development occurred quickly upon reaching the Atlantic, and the wave became Tropical Depression Three at 1800 UTC that day

Best track initiation and operational initiation are different. It probably has been a TD since at least 1800Z, maybe even 1200Z, if they put it in the best track. Still TD7 at 11 pm seems reasonable at this rate.

[KWT]

Be greatful - be VERY greatful for that trough out there (though I'm sure my HRD friends are disappointed because neither D nor E will be close enough for a long research flight, even from SJU, though perhaps later from BDA)...

Frank

They could move a plane to Cape Verde and fly from there, although that would take a lot of effort and expense.

Have they ever done that?

Yeah they had it back in maybe 2006, which actually had a couple of decent CV systems to go into despite the El Nino such as Debby, Gordon and Helene.

I'd be very careful indeed to call this one quite so early, esp if it does hold back and take longer to break away, Danielle ended up being alot slower then progged by the models.

Way too early to know what this one will do to be honest!

[cycloneye]

The latest image. Looking great.

[KWT]

Yeah I think this is very likely to develop now, looks like its focusing in on the southern region which may well just be quite key down the line we will see!

Just needs a little more in the way of convection it seems...

[Ivanhater]

[KWT]

I really do think some of the models are agressive with how quickly they kick this one westwards, if it takes its time then who knows what may happen...though the real threat to the US may come from the slow brewer behind...