Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat? (Is Invest 97L)

[ConvergenceZone]

In all seriousness, the real hope is for the ridge that is baking lays througout Texas, to be stout and steadfast to push Fiona of the future on a continued west path into Mexico, (sorry Mexico but I am still fixing things from Ike).

All that means is that it will probably head to the east coast or florida instead of texas

[Vortex]

GFS 18Z H+102 and the trek begins


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

[Ivanhater]

Trackable all the way across the ATL...so far 348 hours later in the NW Caribbean

[Vortex]

almost a carbon copy of the 12Z...

[KWT]

Yeah and importantly it stays weak so it misses the feature that takes up both Danielle and future Earl and then strengthens into the Caribbean, that'd be a very worrying evolution but its WAY too far out...all that needs to be said is there maybe a wave in the Atlantic that may well get past 60W and if that happens the threat risk increases quickly...

[Ivanhater]

In the Gulf...with Gaston and Hermine in the ATL as well...The models are telling us something.

September could be one wild ride...

[South Texas Storms]

the 12z and 18z gfs are all showing a pretty much non-stop african wave train through the next 16 days. you're right ivan, it could be one heck of a september in the tropics.

[lonelymike]

A 384 hour output from a model that is considered not one of the more reliable tropical models around?

I wonder what the percentage of times the 384 GFS has actually verified? Just sayin

[KWT]

As for my ideas long range, here is what I posted 48hrs ago now in the model thread, good to see the models starting to latch onto the possible solution:

ECM ensembles and also the GFS ensembles suggest troughing weakens by 216-240hrs and if that occurs any CV system that forms deep enough would be at a much greater risk....

Now the models also tried to do the same thing 10-15 days ago and strengthen the upper ridge but it never happened so it could be just model fluff...but certainly needs to be watched, the development of some sort of weak upper ridge just as the conditions become real favourable over the Atlantic could lead to some very interesting thing in early-Mid September.

Time for another long range call, I think a Caribbean threat coming up near the 5-10th and possibly a Gulf threat a little later then that possibly from the same system...

[JTD]

Finally!

Something interesting to track at long long last.

Epic September perhaps in store.

One thing I am a bit concerned about is that the GFS keeps future Fiona rather weak. I'd like to see future runs stay consistent with this solution before getting too excited as well.

Glad we've already identifeid the wave that this is coming from as well.

[Ivanhater]

A 384 hour output from a model that is considered not one of the more reliable tropical models around?

I wonder what the percentage of times the 384 GFS has actually verified? Just sayin

Except for the fact that you can start tracking this entity in just 90 hours off the coast of Africa. Euro shows the vorticity of this wave quite well on the 12z run.

The range you are referring to (384 hours) is pure speculation as far as track and intensity, but is exactly what the forum "Talking Tropics" is all about

[lonelymike]

Na Mike you just want an excuse to stay up with Rock in the wee hours of the morning

[Ivanhater]

Na Mike you just want an excuse to stay up with Rock in the wee hours of the morning

With college starting back today, that might be a little tougher, but with the models showing a very active September, nothing some coffee won't solve

[ColinDelia]

Except for the fact that you can start tracking this entity in just 90 hours off the coast of Africa.

Some of us are gonna watch the wave move across Africa starting in .. well, zero hours. September Madness is around the corner.

How do *your* Final Four look?

[Stormcenter]

Come on now I know things are slow but this in first of all is the GFS and second it's more then 2 weeks out.
I think I have a better chance at picking the Lotto numbers this weekend.

[ConvergenceZone]

Na Mike you just want an excuse to stay up with Rock in the wee hours of the morning

With college starting back today, that might be a little tougher, but with the models showing a very active September, nothing some coffee won't solve

Hey Michael, just curious, what are you majoring in in college? I bet you would make a good meteorologist. Seems like you have the passion that's for sure...

[Ivanhater]

Come on now I know things are slow

Slow? Have you been over to the Active forum? A soon to be major and soon to be Earl. Far from slow

CZ, Poli sci and business. I commission as an officer in the Air force when I graduate in May.

[Stormcenter]

Gotcha

Come on now I know things are slow

Slow? Have you been over to the Active forum? A soon to be major and soon to be Earl. Far from slow

CZ, Poli sci and business. I commission as an officer in the Air force when I graduate in May.

[lonelymike]

Gotcha

Come on now I know things are slow

Slow? Have you been over to the Active forum? A soon to be major and soon to be Earl. Far from slow

CZ, Poli sci and business. I commission as an officer in the Air force when I graduate in May.

Congratulations Michael that's a great career choice. Enjoy

[ROCK]

I dont stay up late.... interesting feature at 384hr but its 384... need to see if it can make it across the pond which I think it will...need more guidance....