ATL: Ex-DANIELLE - Models

[Riptide]

Here is the 12z Ensemble mean at 120 hours.

[ronjon]

Wow, the 12Z GFS is an entertaining run - yeah that's 384 hrs and Danielle/Earl (Danielle eats Earl for lunch) is sitting there at around 30N-55W (ha, ha) - talk about the ACE shooting up after this storm. Oh, and the western caribbean hurricane forms off a cape verde low tracker that comes after 96L. Boy, September may be an exciting month afterall.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

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757
WHXX01 KWBC 231830
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC MON AUG 23 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE (AL062010) 20100823 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100823  1800   100824  0600   100824  1800   100825  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.2N  40.7W   15.7N  42.9W   17.2N  45.3W   19.0N  48.0W
BAMD    15.2N  40.7W   16.1N  42.9W   17.5N  44.9W   19.6N  46.8W
BAMM    15.2N  40.7W   16.0N  43.1W   17.3N  45.5W   18.9N  47.8W
LBAR    15.2N  40.7W   15.9N  43.5W   17.3N  46.6W   18.4N  49.7W
SHIP        60KTS          73KTS          84KTS          92KTS
DSHP        60KTS          73KTS          84KTS          92KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100825  1800   100826  1800   100827  1800   100828  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.0N  50.7W   23.3N  53.8W   26.9N  55.0W   31.5N  57.5W
BAMD    22.3N  48.5W   27.4N  51.5W   30.8N  53.8W   35.1N  55.7W
BAMM    21.0N  49.8W   24.9N  52.6W   28.4N  55.1W   32.3N  57.5W
LBAR    19.8N  52.7W   23.2N  57.1W   26.9N  59.3W   30.8N  58.9W
SHIP        95KTS          98KTS          96KTS          98KTS
DSHP        95KTS          98KTS          96KTS          98KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.2N LONCUR =  40.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  14.3N LONM12 =  37.3W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  13.2N LONM24 =  34.6W
WNDCUR =   60KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =   50KT
CENPRS =  991MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  270NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   60NM RD34SE =   45NM RD34SW =   45NM RD34NW =  60NM
 
$$


[Wx_Warrior]

12z EURO 144H

[cycloneye]

Updated 18z Tropical Models

SHIP now goes to cat 3.

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WHXX01 KWBC 231849
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1849 UTC MON AUG 23 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE (AL062010) 20100823 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100823  1800   100824  0600   100824  1800   100825  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.2N  40.7W   15.7N  42.9W   17.2N  45.3W   19.0N  48.0W
BAMD    15.2N  40.7W   16.1N  42.9W   17.5N  44.9W   19.6N  46.8W
BAMM    15.2N  40.7W   16.0N  43.1W   17.3N  45.5W   18.9N  47.8W
LBAR    15.2N  40.7W   15.9N  43.5W   17.3N  46.6W   18.4N  49.7W
SHIP        65KTS          80KTS          91KTS          98KTS
DSHP        65KTS          80KTS          91KTS          98KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100825  1800   100826  1800   100827  1800   100828  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.0N  50.7W   23.3N  53.8W   26.9N  55.0W   31.5N  57.5W
BAMD    22.3N  48.5W   27.4N  51.5W   30.8N  53.8W   35.1N  55.7W
BAMM    21.0N  49.8W   24.9N  52.6W   28.4N  55.1W   32.3N  57.5W
LBAR    19.8N  52.7W   23.2N  57.1W   26.8N  59.3W   30.8N  58.9W
SHIP       100KTS         101KTS          98KTS          98KTS
DSHP       100KTS         101KTS          98KTS          98KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.2N LONCUR =  40.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  14.3N LONM12 =  37.3W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  13.2N LONM24 =  34.6W
WNDCUR =   65KT RMAXWD =   10NM WNDM12 =   50KT
CENPRS =  987MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  270NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =   60NM RD34SE =   45NM RD34SW =   45NM RD34NW =  60NM
 


[KWT]

Yep good to see the SHIPS going upto major hurricane!

I'm still not sure Bermuda is quite out of harms way and interestingly a few gFS ensembles are bending back westwards again!

Oh and that GFS is just silly it really is!!

[TheDreamTraveler]

Yep good to see the SHIPS going upto major hurricane!

I'm still not sure Bermuda is quite out of harms way and interestingly a few gFS ensembles are bending back westwards again!

Oh and that GFS is just silly it really is!!

lol I know, it does look pretty silly.



I'm pretty confident this will recurve. What we need to watch for now is how long it takes for the recurve to really sharpen.

[KWT]

What is noteable though is how a few of the GFS ensembles are going back to the bend back idea, looks like the GFS is toying with the idea of a stronger ridge again after getting rid of that this morning.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah just noticed that.. but it really looks like its moving faster and missing the weakness created by the first low that drops south where before it was that low that picked it up

is that a west turn i see ? lol

[KWT]

GFS shifting back west again Aric, not all that surprising because they seemed to go perhaps a little too far east today and thats why I've been saying Bermuda still needs to watch this one IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

nope.. it was a wobble.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

GFS shifting back west again Aric, not all that surprising because they seemed to go perhaps a little too far east today and thats why I've been saying Bermuda still needs to watch this one IMO.

it may do a cyclonic loop this run near brumuda... lol...

[KWT]

Just enough ummphhh on the upper trough to lift this one upto about 40N....no real recurve out to 168hrs and it gets to 61W.

Evolution between Danielle and 96L will be interesting this run...

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF gets very close to Bermuda.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Dean4Storms]

These models keep insisting day after day of a turn more NW and yet we've yet to see it.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Frankly I'm losing confidence in the long term models solutions. They have been all over the place the past four days. Thus just in case it does eventually in some way impact my region (New Brunswick, Maine, Nova Scotia & Prince Edward Island), I'm starting to follow the progress of this system with (at least one for now) daily blog posts.

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

If the intensity of SHIP pans out Danielle will rack up big ACE numbers.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 240045
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0045 UTC TUE AUG 24 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE (AL062010) 20100824 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100824  0000   100824  1200   100825  0000   100825  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.5N  42.3W   16.6N  44.5W   18.4N  47.0W   20.2N  49.8W
BAMD    15.5N  42.3W   16.4N  44.7W   18.0N  46.7W   20.1N  48.4W
BAMM    15.5N  42.3W   16.5N  44.9W   18.1N  47.3W   19.9N  49.6W
LBAR    15.5N  42.3W   16.6N  45.2W   18.0N  48.1W   19.4N  51.1W
SHIP        75KTS          91KTS         100KTS         106KTS
DSHP        75KTS          91KTS         100KTS         106KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100826  0000   100827  0000   100828  0000   100829  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.8N  52.3W   23.9N  55.4W   26.6N  56.7W   30.7N  58.8W
BAMD    22.8N  50.0W   27.6N  52.9W   30.9N  55.4W   35.5N  56.8W
BAMM    21.9N  51.4W   25.2N  54.3W   28.3N  56.8W   31.7N  59.2W
LBAR    21.0N  53.7W   24.8N  57.7W   28.0N  60.1W   30.3N  59.6W
SHIP       107KTS         104KTS         100KTS          97KTS
DSHP       107KTS         104KTS         100KTS          97KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.5N LONCUR =  42.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =  14.8N LONM12 =  38.7W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  13.9N LONM24 =  35.9W
WNDCUR =   75KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =   50KT
CENPRS =  982MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =   75NM RD34SE =   60NM RD34SW =   60NM RD34NW =  75NM
 


[Malcome]

I live in Dartmouth, NS, and I am also tracking this storm quite well now. I'm also looking at the beauty that is forming right behind this one. All the forecast models I have looked at are all over the page, and to be honest, I have no idea what it will do at this point. It seems a lot of forecasts are showing that the recurve should have started by now, but I don't see any drastic turns to the north as of yet. I would think that if it doesn't start to make any drastic turns withing the next day or 2, we could very well see it coming into close contact with the Atlantic provinces. I myself am also keeping a close eye on this one.

[Riptide]

The current extrapolated movement clearly does not agree with the models. 0z suite will clear these problems up.

[cpdaman]

The current extrapolated movement clearly does not agree with the models. 0z suite will clear these problems up.

but the extrapolated movement isn't the best indicator because a WNW turn should be starting by midnite and gradually shift to a nw movement by late tomm nite ....at least that is the script lol