ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Bermuda is going to get it, jmho. I'm not forecasting just stating an opinion.

I agree, imo Bermuda (and maybe down the road Nova Scotia & Newfoundland & even points a bit further West) could get hit hard by this one.

[supercane]

ASCAT clips western periphery of Danielle:

[plasticup]

ASCAT clips western periphery of Danielle:

http://a.imageshack.us/img178/1946/wmbas262010082402daniel.png

No surprises there!

[Dean4Storms]

The last Sat. frame has a east to west flattening appearance with the clouds on the northern edge a distinct east to west flat appearance. I swear it looks like the mid-upper ridging is knocking this more westward.

[MGC]

Danielle looks to be heading just north of due west. Outflow looks pretty good in all quads. Plus the outflow canopy looks to be expanding. Not sure how far west the hurricane gets before that big trough over the eastern US picks it up. It looks to be that Danielle will become a major......MGC

[Dean4Storms]

Don't know how well this link will work, but with this you can start to see an eye.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 000&loop=0

you'll have to click on Sat. IR above and then animate it on the left.

[Dean4Storms]

Appears to still be moving just north of due west and just south of the NHC track line depicted in that link above.

[cycloneye]

[Riptide]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0610W5_NL+gif/023513W5_NL_sm.gif

Very bullish poleward movement from the NHC. I'm surprised.

[Dean4Storms]

It's going to really have to start turning now if it is going to make that next mark tomorrow of 16.7n 45w

[Riptide]

It's going to really have to start turning now if it is going to make that next mark tomorrow of 16.7n 45w

So, why is this thing turning WSW? It is pretty obvious at this point, the suspense is killing me. I can't wait for 0z.

[blazess556]

her eye is coming out.

[gatorcane]

Remember, don't let IR loops fool you. The cloud canopy maybe expanding towards the West or WSW, but the actual center of lowest pressure continues to move to the WNW or 285. The trough over the Eastern CONUS is materializing just like the models expected several days ago. I can see the ULL diving down the eastern seaboard and it will veer off to the SE then E over the next day or so. That will nearly wipe out the Bermuda High ridge which is strong at the moment. Since Danielle continues to deepen, there will be a nice weakness for her to hit starting later on tomorrow. There is just about no chance that Danielle with threaten the United States or even North America for that matter. 96L may just fall in her footsteps also, recurving though it is a bit early to know definitively. Chances are Danielle becomes so massive that her outflow greatly impedes the development of 96L even if it makes an attempt to head more west down the road.

[Dean4Storms]

[Riptide]

Remember, don't let IR loops fool you. The cloud canopy maybe expanding towards the West or WSW, but the actual center of lowest pressure continues to move to the WNW or 285. The trough over the Eastern CONUS is materializing just like the models expected several days ago. I can see the ULL diving down the eastern seaboard and it will veer off to the SE then E over the next day or so. That will nearly wipe out the Bermuda High ridge which is strong at the moment. Since Danielle continues to deepen, there will be a nice weakness for her to hit starting later on tomorrow.

The movement should be easy to track now that an eye is appearing. I still see a westward movement at 270

[cycloneye]

Danielle is on the virge to surpass Colin total ACE numbers.

Code: Select all

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 1.8625
Total  10.9575


Code: Select all

06L.Danielle
Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
1 21 August 5 pm AST 25 0
2 21 August 11 pm AST 30 0
3 22 August 5 am AST 30 0
4 22 August 11 am AST 30 0
5 22 August 5 pm AST 35 0.1225
6 22 August 11 pm AST 45 0.2025
7 23 August 5 am AST 50 0.2500
8 23 August 11 am AST 55 0.3025
9 23 August 5 pm AST 65 0.4225
10 23 August 11 pm AST 75 0.5625
Total       1.8625


[HURAKAN]

Beautiful

[pricetag56]

why does the NHC keep screwing up on intensity forecast they said it wouldnt go beyond cat 2 and right now it looks like it will be a 3 by tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

why does the NHC keep screwing up on intensity forecast they said it wouldnt go beyond cat 2 and right now it looks like it will be a 3 by tomorrow.

They are forecasting Danielle to become a major hurricane.

INITIAL 24/0300Z 15.6N 43.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 16.7N 45.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 18.3N 47.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 20.1N 49.9W 100 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 22.2N 52.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 25.5N 55.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 28.0N 57.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 31.0N 59.0W 95 KT

[pricetag56]

why does the NHC keep screwing up on intensity forecast they said it wouldnt go beyond cat 2 and right now it looks like it will be a 3 by tomorrow.

They are forecasting Danielle to become a major hurricane.

INITIAL 24/0300Z 15.6N 43.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 16.7N 45.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 18.3N 47.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 20.1N 49.9W 100 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 22.2N 52.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 25.5N 55.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 28.0N 57.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 29/0000Z 31.0N 59.0W 95 KT

they have changed the intensity several times over the last few days