WPAC: EX INVEST 96W

[StormingB81]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Looks like this is the one near Guam.

[StormingB81]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 312!!step/


Here is the Model...Does it look like 2 storms try to hit Okinawa within a week?

[StormingB81]

Nothing on the other sites yet but thats normal. Wonder how this one will fare. With the atlanta and EPAC heating up maybe its the WPAC's turn.

[Infdidoll]

I could be wrong, but conditions look ridiculously favorable for this invest to continue to form, right now, don't you think? Low shear, and it's also right in the pocket to develop near Guam. Storms that form there actually have a snowball's chance of turning into something more significant - plenty of warm water and no land obstructions. We could see the first big typhoon of the season from this if it continues to develop. Since La Nina most of the TC formations have been shifted further to the West and they hit land and weaken pretty quickly. Might finally have one to watch.

[supercane]

96W 3 ways:







Not much there yet.

[StormingB81]

Looks like it is trying to get it act together.

[Typhoon10]

Have a question. If this does progress into a storm, all other storms including Minduelle have got Westward, why should the track for this be WNW towards Okinawa?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Thanks for posting those images supercane, I was having issues with NRL this morning.

Storming this Invest is out near 133E 14N not near Guam.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Have a question. If this does progress into a storm, all other storms including Minduelle have got Westward, why should the track for this be WNW towards Okinawa?

Okinawa is directly north of this Invest. Remember Dianmu went north as well.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time

There is no strong steering flow so it could well go north, which is what some models are suggesting. The ridge is then forecast to build behind this system as push any storms which forms in a more WNW direction.

[StormingB81]

well man that blob near guam looks pretty good..I wonder if that will be a invest here soon.


I see the one now right next to PI..man and I started this thread...LOL!

[StormingB81]

And this is from PAGASA:

At 2:00 p.m. today, a Shallow Low Pressure Area (SLPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 540 km East of Visayas (12.0°N, 131.0°E) embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) affecting the country.

[supercane]

JMA makes note of this low in their summary:

WWJP25 RJTD 240600
<snip>
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 16N 129E WNW SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 18N 139E WNW SLOWLY.
<snip>

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[StormingB81]

96W has a 40% chance of forming within 48 hours

[supercane]

96W looks pathetic today.

Morning vis more impressive for 97W:


IR:


Looks sad on microwave:


ASCAT caught eastern edge of circulation though:


Expect 96W to go the way of the dodo pretty soon.

[supercane]

96W has a 40% chance of forming within 48 hours

According to whom? Looking at CIRA's Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product site, I only get around 10% (see region II):

[StormingB81]

I dont trust that site anymore that the military has a link too...lol I am just going to keep my mouth shut about certian things..lol

[supercane]

[supercane]

As expected, 96W off NRL site.

[StormingB81]

It is still on mine

[StormingB81]

It a link to some Philipines website who works with Pagasa they said 40% chance in teh next 48 hours