ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#81 Postby **Buck** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:16 pm

I understand the hesitation if the wait until morning to upgrade this, but I would at 11pm.

#82 Postby **BigB0882** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:47 pm

That looks really good! I would think an upgrade at 11 but as many people have mentioned, you couldn't fault them for waiting until the morning for vis.

#83 Postby **supercane** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:53 pm

No TD tonight. Does not look as good as earlier on microwave:

And no Dvorak classification:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/2330 UTC 12.1N 19.1W TOO WEAK 96L

ROCK · #84 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:56 pm

Earl sometime tomorrow is my guess....

KWT, I would not be to sure of a recurve this far out.... :wink:

#85 Postby **supercane** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:58 pm

Also not supporting an upgrade to TD tonight is this recent ASCAT pass, which does not reveal a well-defined circulation:

#86 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:09 pm

It has some work to do.

#87 Postby **littlevince** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:15 pm

Loop 2300z-0130z

coreyl · #88 Postby **coreyl** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:16 pm

ROCK wrote:Earl sometime tomorrow is my guess....

KWT, I would not be to sure of a recurve this far out....

I can see it now. We are going to have another recurve vs landfall debate, coming soon to storm2k.

jimvb · #89 Postby **jimvb** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:40 pm

Some of you call Invest 96L by the name of Earl. But what if the storminess off the western GOM coast near Texas and Mexico develops into a tropical storm first? Then Invest 96L would be Fiona. Recent GFS runs show that an instant tropical storm or hurricane can develop in the GOM any time.

#90 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:48 pm

jimvb wrote:Some of you call Invest 96L by the name of Earl. But what if the storminess off the western GOM coast near Texas and Mexico develops into a tropical storm first? Then Invest 96L would be Fiona. Recent GFS runs show that an instant tropical storm or hurricane can develop in the GOM any time.

There is nothing close to forming in the GOM right now, whereas this (officially) has a 60% of forming, and some are saying it has a greater chance. This has any potential GOM system easily beat timing wise.

Website · #91 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 10:11 pm

Impressive for an invest.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #92 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 10:21 pm

Looking pretty impressive tonight.

jimvb · #93 Postby **jimvb** » Mon Aug 23, 2010 10:39 pm

Imprest 96L.

Website · #94 Postby **Brent** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 12:40 am

ABNT20 KNHC 240538
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS WELL ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

#95 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 12:45 am

Wow, 70 percent.

This Cherry is about to explode.

Plant grower · #96 Postby **Plant grower** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 12:50 am

Ivanhater wrote:Wow, 70 percent.

This Cherry is about to explode.

The eagle is landed the cat is out the box and the gello is giggling ha! TD 7 will be here later this morning everyone. :ggreen:

WeatherGuesser · #97 Postby **WeatherGuesser** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 3:57 am

96L on the lower left

WeatherGuesser · #98 Postby **WeatherGuesser** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 4:11 am

They don't send Floaters this far east? Or is it just taking a while to get in position?

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #99 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 4:21 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:They don't send Floaters this far east? Or is it just taking a while to get in position?

I suppose they could. However, 96L is on the edge of the Goes-E full disk. There's lot of attenuation/whatnot and by being at the edge of the "disk" it can make for fishy operational use. The better bet would be to use METEOSAT. There's some fishiness with METEOSAT as well. They used to only release imagery every six hours or so publically. Not the case anymore, but there may still be some issues with NOAA publically releasing data from EUMETSAT. Once it gains a little more westward longitude, it should be good to go for GOES-E coverage.

#100 Postby **ColinDelia** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 4:22 am

Very close to a depression. 25 kts.

Dvorak 1.0

Vorticity which crosses the threshold for satellite based detection of a TC (175km x 175 km x 50 "units")

ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

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