ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

I will go on record as forecasting that Danielle will track at least a little SW of 30N 60W. The threat of a direct strike on Bermuda is still low,

How about further north? Skim the Maritimes, or miss them altogether?

[KWT]

Looking at the trough it looks big enough to deflect the system eastwards before it gets to SE Canada at the moment, indeed the system may even bend back a little to the ESE if some of the models are right as it only just catches the upper trough connection....possibly could have an Azores risk if some of the models are right!

[WeatherGuesser]

Should get a visible shortly. About half of it appears now on the Atlantic Wide View.

[WeatherGuesser]

Looking at the trough it looks big enough to deflect the system eastwards before it gets to SE Canada at the moment, indeed the system may even bend back a little to the ESE if some of the models are right as it only just catches the upper trough connection....possibly could have an Azores risk if some of the models are right!

So other than Bermuda, no land at risk?

[KWT]

Probably yeah but may still be a little too early.

Anyway stil ldoesn't seem to be picking up a huge amount of latitude right now and certainly weaker probably down to 75-80kts right now IMO, dry air really hurting this one and looks like a weak upper level trough/low is coming down.

[GCANE]

ERC? Interesting - it seems that the inner eyewall has collapsed based on IR.

But, there appears to be a very weak and fluctuating outer ring that seems to be forming.

Since the core temp has increased by +1C since last night; I suspect that an ERC could in fact be the case.

The outer ring ring appears to be unusually wide in diameter.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif

[GCANE]

Sorry, meant to say Microwave not IR when referencing the MIMIC image.

Anyway, MIMIC-TPW seems to show that dry air in the boundary layer may be trying to enter the core.

This could account for the drop-off in eyewall convection.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

[WeatherGuesser]

Are you aware that that first animation is a full 7 Meg and the second one is over 4 Meg?

[cyclonic chronic]

x2
i agree,seems like dry air intrusion. also in the formative stage yesterday, based on the above micro, it looks like Danielle's circ. center reformed several times. maybe thats why she didnt bomb-out. maybe once the dry air circulates out tonite or tommrow, we could see a major.

[GCANE]

Is there a restriction that I am not aware of?

If so, I'll be glad to post the URL and not paste as an image.

[cyclonic chronic]

im thinking no. those were great pics.

[WeatherGuesser]

Not everybody has high speed broadband and those size images can cause problems for low speed or limited bandwidth users.

[GCANE]

Thanks.

Actually, I just noticed CIMSS has added IR and Microwave together now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t24hrs.gif

[GCANE]

OK, understood. I'll post the URL only from now on - thanks.

[KWT]

Looks like its gained a little bit of latitude recently according to that loop GCane after heading close to due west for a good 4-6hrs.

[GCANE]

Looking at CAPE imagery, stable air does seem to be entraining into the core.

However, as it continues NW, it looks like it could tap into air with CAPE values higher than it has seen so far.

[cycloneye]

SAB Dvorak shows Danielle a little bit weaker.

24/1145 UTC 16.2N 45.5W T4.0/4.5 DANIELLE -- Atlantic

[ColinDelia]

to make your point GCANE, the 24 hour forecast

[lester]

I doubt this is experiencing ewrc's.

Probably some dry air.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082412, , BEST, 0, 162N, 455W, 75, 983, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Down to 75kts.