ATL: EARL - Models

[cycloneye]

Moves over Bermuda.

[Ivanhater]

Random trough split that develops a low off Florida and picks up Earl. If that wasn't there, well we all know what would happen. Interesting trend

[Brent]

snagged off the EC and out....telling though in the short /med term...

Huge change from earlier and gets much closer to the U.S. than Danielle gets.

[summersquall]

(author: Vortex)

Looking at the long range guidance this morning it certainly implies quite a change over the SW atlantic in about 5 days...Strong ridging sets up shop with a very deep moist easterly flow developing across Florida...This pattern more or less persists right into September. It appears by next week we may see systems tracking much further west from Africa and it's the pattern expected that raises an eyebrow. I think with this pattern the Carribean, Bahamas, Florida, and the Gulf of Mexico need to be very vigilant as we near the peak.

GFS 6Z 1 week from today.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

******************************

I just had a frightening flash...Palm Beach Post future headline, "My Name Is Earl!".

[KWT]

Well we are inb a very troughy pattern still so even if this one manages to get past Danille's weakness it will likely recurve.

Its like 1995 but the storms are gaining more latitude then that season and keeping the Caribbean safe...thus far...

[KWT]

06z GFS follows out Danielle...looks like the recurve pattern is very strong this season...

[TampaFl]

06z GFS follows out Danielle...looks like the recurve pattern is very strong this season...

Look again KWT. 96L what could be Earl bends back west along & just north of Lat. 20N. If the strong high over the Mid Atlantic /New England states gets any stronger then the west to wnw track could continue for the long term. Of course things can & will change.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2010082400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Robert

[ronjon]

06z GFS follows out Danielle...looks like the recurve pattern is very strong this season...

KWT, future Earl only recurves because of the weakness created by Danielle and it pretty closely follows it. Look at the massive ridging over the Atlantic setting up on the 00z Euro at 10 days.

[KWT]

Take a look at the heights ronjon though by 240hrs there is a upper level low over the US starting to move east and that would turn the flow to the north by the time Earl reached say 70W even IF it managed to avoid scooping into Danielle's path:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Still those sorts of things are quite a way off and its gotta try and avoid the weaknesses that are out there which isn't an easy thing.

Far from certain though to be fair what will happen!

[AdamFirst]

King tutt reigns...

It seems like every storm this year has had a dominating tutt or upper level low feature start beating the storm senseless...I guess danielle couldn't escape that either. I wonder if there will be one for future Earl down the line.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS follows out Danielle...looks like the recurve pattern is very strong this season...

Look again KWT. 96L what could be Earl bends back west along & just north of Lat. 20N. If the strong high over the Mid Atlantic /New England states gets any stronger then the west to wnw track could continue for the long term. Of course things can & will change.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2010082400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Robert

At the end run it does look like future Earl is moving west and the CA ridge begins to build? Not sure if the ridge is strong enough to push future Earl farther west?

[KWT]

Nah BA if you look at the extended run its easily picked up by the weakness left behind, most models bar todays 00z GFS lift this one up and thats gotta be the most likely evolution for 96L...good job because the pattern may well have been good enough to get it close by otherwise...

[Vortex]

Kwt,

I strong but respectfully disagree with your thoughts on the upcoming pattern...Guidance 6zGFS/00Z ECM all point to very strong and expansive ridging building in across the western atlantic...

[ROCK]

Kwt,

I strong but respectfully disagree with your thoughts on the upcoming pattern...Guidance 6zGFS/00Z ECM all point to very strong and expansive ridging building in across the western atlantic...

agree.....Dee is moving awful fast and most likely will have the weakness fill in quickly behind her....I wouldnt hang your hat on a few model runs KWT...you might have called Dee right but I wouldnt go to the well more than once. You might find out it is dry......

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 241249
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC TUE AUG 24 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100824 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100824  1200   100825  0000   100825  1200   100826  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  23.0W   14.3N  26.4W   14.9N  30.3W   15.3N  33.8W
BAMD    13.5N  23.0W   14.9N  25.4W   16.2N  28.1W   17.5N  30.7W
BAMM    13.5N  23.0W   14.8N  26.0W   15.6N  29.5W   16.5N  32.9W
LBAR    13.5N  23.0W   14.7N  26.2W   15.8N  29.4W   16.8N  32.7W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          44KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          44KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100826  1200   100827  1200   100828  1200   100829  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.5N  36.5W   16.7N  39.5W   19.4N  42.1W   22.9N  45.5W
BAMD    19.1N  33.4W   22.3N  37.8W   24.0N  39.6W   24.9N  37.7W
BAMM    17.2N  35.8W   18.6N  40.3W   20.6N  43.9W   22.5N  47.4W
LBAR    17.9N  35.7W   19.7N  41.1W   20.2N  45.4W   21.2N  47.8W
SHIP        53KTS          67KTS          74KTS          76KTS
DSHP        53KTS          67KTS          74KTS          76KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  23.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  20KT
LATM12 =  12.1N LONM12 =  19.1W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =  11.2N LONM24 =  16.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Stormcenter]

Great news so far with 96L.

[KWT]

Yeah looking a pretty solid recurve as well this one, small chance that is misses the weakness that Danielle left behind but by that time it'll be at least up at 20N and that tends to be quite hard to miss the weakness, esp if it is a decent storm by then...

[hurricaneCW]

Yep this one is a definite recurve. The tropics continue to be lackluster with all of these early recurves, TUTTs, and dry air intrusions. The long range shows some promise but I'm not holding out on something that far out.

[cycloneye]

The tropics continue to be lackluster

Fish storms are not lackluster at all. On the contrary, those are the best to track to see the beauty of mother nature. Apart from that, fish storms count on the ACE department.

[hurricaneCW]

The tropics continue to be lackluster

Fish storms are not lackluster at all. On the contrary, those are the best to track to see the beauty of mother nature. Apart from that, fish storms count on the ACE department.

If only they were nice fish storms and not ragged ones like Danielle right now.