ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

I wonder what it'll mean for its future and the future of the one behind it. A much weaker system would produce a much weaker weakness. Also a weakening storm is more likely to head further west than get pulled north by the trough. Anyways yeah, this is another lackluster storm that looked great last night but got completely shattered this morning. I remain very unimpressed with the season.

[KWT]

Possibly HCW but it'd probably have to open up to miss the trough enough for it not to be far enough north to be caught by the one down the road...as Colin showed even a very weak system will recurve in that pattern.

Still this one really is struggling, pretty amazing considering it lookd real good but hey, at least we did get a category-2 out of this one and who knows what the future holds in terms of strength.

[hurricaneCW]

I think many here would agree with me. For a season that's supposed to be one of the most active, it's extremely unimpressive so far and August is just about over.

Based on the water vapor loop, the ULL basically dove straight down near Danielle and shred it apart. It's like a guillotine into a hurricane, chopped it right off.

[ColinDelia]

I find this rapid weakening extremely interesting, it's fun to watch and learn how conditions can effect these storms.

Completely agree. I could care less whether storms strengthen or weaken or where they go. Whatever happens is interesting enough.

[CrazyC83]

We were fooled on Sunday though...I know we will write it off for dead then the ULL will retreat...

[hurricaneCW]

We were fooled on Sunday though...I know we will write it off for dead then the ULL will retreat...

I'm just really interested as to how this big weakening trend will impact the future of Danielle and the developing TD behind it. I'm also interested to see if it will come back with a vengeance. Some mets said that it could regains strength by Wednesday and Thursday as the shear weakens once again and the dry air subsides.

[ColinDelia]

Tropical Storm Erin in 2001 ran into some dry air with an upper level trough 15 degrees to its WNW (as per the Sep 2, 11 pm discussion) slowly weakening to a depression. Some days later she cleared both, started to strengthen on Sep 7, rapidly intensified on Sep 8 and became a hurricane peaking at 120 mph on Sep 9th. Not a prediction but interesting for compare/contrast.

[Parungo]

From J. Masters´Blog:

Hurricane Danielle has stopped intensifying and is now looking a bit ragged this morning, but remains a respectable Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. The intensity of Danielle's heavy thunderstorms has waned in the past few hours, and the organization of the storm is less impressive. This is probably due do strong upper-level winds out of the west that are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and injecting some of the dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that surrounds Danielle. Danielle is over warm 28°C water, but is far from any land areas.

[wxman57]

I'm not sure it's westerly wind shear causing the problem. My coworker pointed out that cirrus clouds on the western side of Danielle are moving southward rather than northward. This could be the result of the upper high being displaced too far west of Danielle.

[tolakram]

I agree Colin. When you have a hurricane is a stable state going where the models say it will go then, while beautiful to watch, the results offer little in the way of surprise. When you get a system that gets it's head chopped off but then recovers it's very interesting to see how the track, and forecast track, is impacted. On the WV loop it appears Danielle still has plenty of moisture to work with, maybe even more than before.

[Macrocane]

If you look at the models they start strengthening Danielle in about 2 days, so even if it is weakening it will have enough time to recover, so far the HWRF has been good with the intensity forecast, it predicted that Danielle was going to weaken and then it re-intensifies in a couple of days.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 46.5W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, only 6 mph from being a tropical storm...

[MGC]

I expected a beautiful hurricane this morning but it looks like Danielle has fallen off a cliff.....just goes to show how the tropics can take unexpected turns. Might be down to TS status right now......MGC

[ConvergenceZone]

I expected a beautiful hurricane this morning but it looks like Danielle has fallen off a cliff.....just goes to show how the tropics can take unexpected turns. Might be down to TS status right now......MGC

Welcome to 2010 MGC

[dexterlabio]

I'm not used to observe the systems in the Atlantic, but this one is quite interesting. This is a huge downfall for Danielle. I thought it would gain more strength and turn into something big. I guess the situation in the Atlantic is the same with the Pacific.

[tailgater]

I'm not sure it's westerly wind shear causing the problem. My coworker pointed out that cirrus clouds on the western side of Danielle are moving southward rather than northward. This could be the result of the upper high being displaced too far west of Danielle.

This loop sort of backs up the thought of the storm not being stacked.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... =undefined

[GCANE]

Must have been a huge downdraft from the dry air intrusion.

Warm core is basically gone.

I'll wait for a couple more shots from AMSU to say for sure.

[Valkhorn]

She's not looking great.

I will say this though:

1) If a system at all looks like it's strengthening (and only 1 frame is needed) then it's either developing an eye if it's a TS or it is quickly going to be a category 4 or higher if it's a hurricane.

2) If a system at all looks like it's weakening (and only 1 frame is needed) then it's either an open wave if it's a TS or it is going to immediately jump from a strong hurricane to an open wave (without passing go and without collecting $200).