ATL: EARL - Models

[mulley]

"Excitement".....??
Andrew, Hugo, Gilbert, Katrina, Rita, Ike, and many others
hit me and many of us right in the chops- point blank.
We all pray for any/all of those to never happen again.
Give me a fish storm- anyday.

[Frank2]

Yes, I agree - mountains of stress but no excitement, that's for sure...

Per the hurricanes you mentioned, the "hurricane survivors club" is similar to other survivor clubs (cancer, earthquake, tornado, etc.), in that we all have suffered a similar experience...

Of course today is 8/24, and it's been 18 years since Andrew, and time is a great healer, but even after 18 years thinking back on what that was like still isn't a good experience for anyone involved in that disaster (myself included)...

Anyway - after 96L it does seem like we might a CV break for awhile, and that's always good, though just to note that September starts one week from tomorrow, so the clock is ticking, and as we know the later it gets the deeper the troughs, so look for more troughs in the model runs...

Frank

[LowndesCoFire]

Yep this one is a definite recurve. The tropics continue to be lackluster with all of these early recurves, TUTTs, and dry air intrusions. The long range shows some promise but I'm not holding out on something that far out.

Uh oh the word DEFINITE ...you probably just changed the entire forecast. Lookout!

[ConvergenceZone]

Yes, I agree - mountains of stress but no excitement, that's for sure...

Per the hurricanes you mentioned, the "hurricane survivors club" is similar to other survivor clubs (cancer, earthquake, tornado, etc.), in that we all have suffered a similar experience...

Of course today is 8/24, and it's been 18 years since Andrew, and time is a great healer, but even after 18 years thinking back on what that was like still isn't a good experience for anyone involved in that disaster (myself included)...

Anyway - after 96L it does seem like we might a CV break for awhile, and that's always good, though just to note that September starts one week from tomorrow, so the clock is ticking, and as we know the later it gets the deeper the troughs, so look for more troughs in the model runs...

Frank

Frank, that's why we always turn to the Carib and Gulf for development
once we get into September, which can just be as bad as far as intense storms are concerned....
It should be a crazy September for the The gulf and the Carib

[KWT]

96L is further south thus far out to 96L on the 12z run and looks Danielle goes a little further west as well...

Whilst I expect it to go into the weakness left by Danielle its not a total forgone conclusion...

[ColinDelia]

156 hours. Category 1



One has to think the strength of Danielle may play a large role in "Invest 96L's" path

[ColinDelia]

174 Hours

[Brent]

228, approaching Bermuda, recurving away from the U.S.:



240, over Bermuda

[plasticup]

228, direct hit on Bermuda

Guess where I am supposed to be in 228 hours.

[Weatherfreak000]

This system is lagging a good distance behind Danielle, I don't know where anyone gets "Recurve definite from" (you would think people would understand weather doesn't have memories or TRENDS it's a dynamic science...but whatever )


This storm is a possible EC threat IMO. The slower it moves the more that will become apparent...and possibly even a SFL strike if it really lags behind. LOADS of uncertainty here.

[Bocadude85]

The 228 hour posistion is south of Bermuda... Bermuda is not at 30 North

[Wx_Warrior]

Weatherfreak....are you now backing off the idea that Danielle will not be an EC storm?

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 241823
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC TUE AUG 24 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100824 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100824  1800   100825  0600   100825  1800   100826  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N  25.3W   13.7N  28.5W   14.5N  31.9W   15.0N  35.0W
BAMD    13.0N  25.3W   14.0N  27.6W   14.9N  30.0W   15.9N  32.4W
BAMM    13.0N  25.3W   14.0N  27.9W   15.1N  30.9W   16.1N  33.9W
LBAR    13.0N  25.3W   13.4N  28.6W   14.1N  32.3W   14.8N  35.8W
SHIP        30KTS          38KTS          47KTS          56KTS
DSHP        30KTS          38KTS          47KTS          56KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100826  1800   100827  1800   100828  1800   100829  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.8N  37.8W   16.9N  43.3W   17.6N  49.2W   18.0N  54.7W
BAMD    17.1N  34.7W   19.1N  39.1W   21.0N  43.0W   22.9N  46.7W
BAMM    17.2N  36.8W   18.5N  42.5W   19.2N  48.2W   19.7N  53.5W
LBAR    15.8N  39.3W   17.1N  45.1W   17.9N  48.3W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        63KTS          74KTS          76KTS          79KTS
DSHP        63KTS          74KTS          76KTS          79KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.0N LONCUR =  25.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  20KT
LATM12 =  13.0N LONM12 =  21.0W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 =  22KT
LATM24 =  11.4N LONM24 =  17.3W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[Vortex]

Models sure have been trending west since yesterday...Globals and dynamic. I'm not so sure this is a shoe-in for recurvature.....

[Blown Away]

Models sure have been trending west since yesterday...Globals and dynamic. I'm not so sure this is a shoe-in for recurvature.....

Most 18z models don't cross 20N until after 50W, so yes there has been a trend west.

[BigA]

Map above shows the 6Z hwrf. 12Z has 96L about 5 degrees west at the end of the run, about 20N, 52W

[Vortex]

let's see if the 12Zeuro trends west as most other models have...

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF is a fish for it.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[terrapintransit]

Hmmm....

[Plant grower]

I see earl could very well be our big fish in the sea if you know what I mean.