Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

Wx_Warrior · #121 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 12:36 pm

Stormclouds...yes

I know Rita was Sept 22 (?), but that was super late for this area.

#122 Postby **Houstonia** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 12:36 pm

I'm driving down to spend the weekend in Galveston - I know that rain is on the forecast. But then we are leaving on a cruise Monday - we leave from Galveston and go to Progeso Mexico (Yucatan), and Cozumel before returning to Galveston. It's a five day cruise. So... I'm wondering what the GOM is going to offer up for the next 10 or so days.

GCANE wrote:I apologize if this has been posted elsewhere; but 12Z CMC is showing 850mb vorticity spinning up in the West Carib and possibly heading into the GOM.

Just something to keep an eye on for future model runs.

So far, CMC doesn't develop it as a warm core.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... vort24.png

#123 Postby **BigA** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 1:58 pm

12Z ECMWF has a surface low form in the Gulf and move to the Texas coast in the 4 day time frame.

#124 Postby **Bailey1777** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:15 pm

where on the tx coast?

Sanibel · #125 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:15 pm

Heavy rain from that lingering front here. You would think that much hanging moisture would spin-up a system but so far it hasn't.

#126 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:21 pm

BigA wrote:12Z ECMWF has a surface low form in the Gulf and move to the Texas coast in the 4 day time frame.

Granted, the resolution is quite low on the Penn State e-wall site and the free Euro site but I looked over both of those and did not see a surface low at the four-day mark by Texas. Got a better link by any chance?

#127 Postby **srainhoutx** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:29 pm

12Z Euro...

#128 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:31 pm

Thanks srainhoutx! I obviously was looking at the wrong sites.

Looks like maybe a TD off the Coastal Bend?

Wx_Warrior · #129 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:34 pm

Wave axis now....lot's rain likely.

#130 Postby **srainhoutx** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:35 pm

Canadian...

NAM...

#131 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:42 pm

Houstonia wrote:I'm driving down to spend the weekend in Galveston - I know that rain is on the forecast. But then we are leaving on a cruise Monday - we leave from Galveston and go to Progeso Mexico (Yucatan), and Cozumel before returning to Galveston. It's a five day cruise. So... I'm wondering what the GOM is going to offer up for the next 10 or so days.

Weather is looking good for your cruise next week. East and southeasterly winds lighter than normal between Galveston and the Yucatan. Lots of sunshine. You're getting very lucky, it appears.

As for the weak trof axis in the Gulf, I'm estimating a 20-30% chance it might develop into a TD/TS before it moves ashore into Texas on Friday/Saturday. That's a 70-80% it won't get a name, but a pretty good chance it'll bring us some rain regardless.

#132 Postby **srainhoutx** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:53 pm

Euro in the longer term...

ConvergenceZone · #133 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 2:57 pm

Looks like the carib is brewing on that last Euro run...

#134 Postby **Houstonia** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 3:01 pm

Thanks wxman - I would like a little wind and rain to make it exciting. :wink:

but I can be happy with clear sunny days. :lol:

wxman57 wrote:
Houstonia wrote:I'm driving down to spend the weekend in Galveston - I know that rain is on the forecast. But then we are leaving on a cruise Monday - we leave from Galveston and go to Progeso Mexico (Yucatan), and Cozumel before returning to Galveston. It's a five day cruise. So... I'm wondering what the GOM is going to offer up for the next 10 or so days.

Weather is looking good for your cruise next week. East and southeasterly winds lighter than normal between Galveston and the Yucatan. Lots of sunshine. You're getting very lucky, it appears.

As for the weak trof axis in the Gulf, I'm estimating a 20-30% chance it might develop into a TD/TS before it moves ashore into Texas on Friday/Saturday. That's a 70-80% it won't get a name, but a pretty good chance it'll bring us some rain regardless.

#135 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 3:19 pm

18Z NAM looks good for Development off the Texas Coast by late Thursday...

Wx_Warrior · #136 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 3:30 pm

#137 Postby **Houstonia** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 3:31 pm

When is that model for? That's not right now... how far ahead?

Wx_Warrior wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/18/images/nam_sl7_048m.gif

#138 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 3:31 pm

You would think something in time could/would/should form from
this mess in the GOM. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Wx_Warrior · #139 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 3:31 pm

18z NAM, 54Hours (Friday)

#140 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Tue Aug 24, 2010 3:32 pm

Houstonia wrote:When is that model for? That's not right now... how far ahead?

Wx_Warrior wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/18/images/nam_sl7_048m.gif

Thats the NAM. Upper level conditions are certainly favorable.

Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

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