ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[cycloneye]

IMO, what is occuring with Danielle not being healthy at this time may help this system, whatever it may turn out to be, to move more west as Danielle would not create a huge weakness. But if Danielle comes back and gets stronger, then is another story.

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[CrazyC83]

IMO, what is occuring with Danielle not being healthy at this time may help this system, whatever it may turn out to be, to move more west as Danielle would not create a huge weakness. But if Danielle comes back and gets stronger, then is another story.

As we have seen, anything is possible. Also the more dry air that Danielle eats up, I think it means less dry air for this system.

[GCANE]

Looks like ADT relocated the LLC closer to the deep convection.

Core temp looks healthy enough to intensify.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 230830.jpg

[Aric Dunn]

The only thing I can see that they are waiting on is for a little more in the way of organized convection. its still sort of popcorn like..

[bayouself]

To misquote the great 60's singer Donovan: "You've got to pick up every stitch, Mmm, must be the season of the FISH,Must be the season of the ,FISH yeah... Hopefully...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Aric Dunn]

[cycloneye]

Stays at 90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 985 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER HAS
NOT YET FORMED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
ANY TIME AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[hurricanefloyd5]

will there be tropical storm warnings issued or not likely?

[Aric Dunn]

probably not since by the time they upgrade it will be past the islands..

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty sure once some decent organized convection develops they will upgrade.



sort of off topic but this is rather interesting and at the same time ridiculous.. we have always known high terrain can cause part of the circulation to get stuck ...kind of like a tether ball. but city buildings.. come on.. lol
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/08/ ... urricanes/

[ColinDelia]

Some dry air

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 96, 2010082418, , BEST, 0, 130N, 253W, 30, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

No upgrade yet but winds are up to 30kts.

[ColinDelia]

Increased vorticity and more symmetrical

[Blown Away]

AL, 96, 2010082412, , BEST, 0, 135N, 230W, 25, 1008, LO

AL, 96, 2010082418, , BEST, 0, 130N, 253W, 30, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Broad center located a little south of the 12z position?

[cycloneye]

AL, 96, 2010082412, , BEST, 0, 135N, 230W, 25, 1008, LO

AL, 96, 2010082418, , BEST, 0, 130N, 253W, 30, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Broad center located a little south of the 12z position?

It was a relocation, not that it moved wsw.

[Blown Away]

The TAFB has 96L below 20N as it approaches 50W. Luis, I know it was a relocation, but sometimes the relocations can have longterm effects on the track.

[Aric Dunn]

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic