ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[KWT]

Big ole circulation with this one looking at the loops, I personally see the center maybe a little to the north of where the NHC have it, maybe up near 14N at the moment.

This one should be watched carefully, the timing is going to be key for this one IMO, its not out of the question this one gets too close for comfort if nothing else...

[cycloneye]

The latest. Still some work to do.

[CrazyC83]

D-max should be what does it for the system. Much larger than Danielle it looks like.

[KWT]

Yeah also shows that the circulation is probably around 14N as well there.

Still a decent convective burst will probably help this one on its way...the only problem is there is alot of dry air and SAL about and we saw how that hurt a fully developed hurricane, for an invest that could well prevent development for a while...which if it did it could get further west...

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 895 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY BECOME A LITTLE
LESS ORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND COMPUTER MODELS FAVOR
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDING EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[KWT]

Still holding at 90% but from the sounds of things if the models weren't so agressive on development it may have been adjusted downwards.

[supercane]

Big ole circulation with this one looking at the loops, I personally see the center maybe a little to the north of where the NHC have it, maybe up near 14N at the moment.

Microwave imagery supports that notion:


90% still seems appropriate given that it represents a 2 day probability of development.

[supercane]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 242356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE <snip>

A 1008 MB LOW IS SSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N25W
MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. THIS LOW IS STEADILY DEEPENING AND COULD
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 25W-28W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 28W-31W.

<snip>

[supercane]

T number steady from SSD Dvorak classification:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/2345 UTC 14.4N 26.4W T1.0/1.5 96L
24/1800 UTC 13.7N 25.1W T1.0/1.5 96L
24/1200 UTC 13.8N 23.0W T1.5/1.5 96L

[supercane]

00Z best track update:

AL, 96, 2010082500, , BEST, 0, 136N, 267W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 96, 2010082418, , BEST, 0, 130N, 253W, 30, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 125, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[HURAKAN]

Unofficial track

[Windtalker1]

Unofficial track

wow, looks alittle to much of a NW track....I'd say about 18N by the time it got to 50w

[HURAKAN]

in the red

[supercane]

ASCAT again showing multiple vortices fighting for supremacy:

[AdamFirst]

ASCAT actually got something....a round of applause

Quikscat how we miss you so...

[cycloneye]

I think the one around 13N will eventually be the dominant one. Is has work to do.

[HURAKAN]

convection increasing

[cycloneye]

Great image Sandy. You can see that the separation between Danielle and 96L is sustantial (Around 1100 miles) so the outflow from Danielle will not tear up 96L.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTNT21 KNGU 250100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 25.4W TO 14.7N 31.8W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. A 1050 ZULU ASCAT PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. CURRENT REGIONAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION OF THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 24HRS. THIS, IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 86 TO 88 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 260100Z AUG 2010.//

[Buck]

Maybe now that it's down to bare bones, it's circulation can get its act together and build from there.