ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html


the eye is popping out again

Interesting...I would re-upgrade it to a hurricane on that (I would never have downgraded it personally, at least not at 5 pm since I think it was weaker at 11 am). I'd put Danielle at 70 kt right now, with a pressure of 991mb.

[KWT]

i'm waiting for WXman 57 to say it's possible....i value his opinion highly....this may just be a fluke run.....but M watkins does have some concerning comments....heck i could get a cane in Mass. lol

Whilst I think its a highly unusual synoptic esp in a year where troughing has been prelevant, you can't rule it totally out esp as the ensembles have been getting a little keener on it, I'd say put it as a rank outsider though...

Now for Bermuda the trends are becoming quite strong now IMO...

Also it does look better, I think this will be a hurricane tonight again after brief weakening.

[hurricaneCW]

Well I know this isn't a good model but the Nogaps had a similar solution to the latest gfs run except just a bit further offshore.

[supercane]

Recovery on IR, not as much on microwave imagery.

1433Z:


2029Z:

[KWT]

I think Bermuda really shouldn't be overlooked here to be honest, the models coming into good agreement again of a threat to Bermuda...and the 12z GFDL showed this one at 935mbs very close to Bermuda, a small westward shift would put them in the W.Eyewall on the 12z GFDL of a cat-4...

[abajan]

I agree that this season is a disappointment. Everyone gets all excited at the prospect of a storm to follow, hopefully one that will not harm anyone, and they fizzle out. Boring, boring, boring!

Huh? tropics are heating up and we'll likely have two systems shortly with possibly a third in a few days. Compared to June and July, this is ramping up as forecasted.

We are still in the first half of the season which is almost always less active than the second half. This is especially true in a La Niña year. At any rate, one can hardly consider the activity so far to be slight. I mean, come on, we’re already at letter “D” (likely to become the second major cane of the season) and all indications are that “E” will be here by tomorrow.

I think some of us have been spoiled by 2005. Let’s just relax a bit and watch how things progress, peeps.

[cycloneye]

Hmmm, the eye may be trying to make a comeback.

[Brent]

Hmmm, the eye may be trying to make a comeback.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/182.JPG

Looks like it to me as well. Fully expect a hurricane again at 11.

[KWT]

Probably does justify being upped to 65kts at the moment, still got some work to do though to get upto the strength it was at last night though!

[wxman57]

Wow well the 18z certainly throws out an extreme but interesting solution...betting thats not happened too many times in history though so for now not sure its a likely solution.

Still if it were to come off Danielle may well need close watching, esp if it does restrengthen like forecasted. I personally think it may well get back to hurricane status tonight providing it doesn't gulp in more dry air but we will see!

Yeah, I saw the 18Z GFS. Certainly the outlier in driving Danielle right into the east coast ridge. I don't buy it, though it's not 100% a sure thing Danielle will not threaten the east coast.

[thetruesms]

Wow, just got a glimpse at the 18Z GFS Fortunately, its only support thus far is just from NOGAPS.

As for the here and now, I'd like to see that western semicircle in better shape, but it is improved from before, so I could see them taking it up to a minimal hurricane. Plenty of time before the advisory, as well.

[OuterBanker]

Geeze Louise, just had to see 18z gfs.

Yep, it's on crack allright.

How long since that kind of scenario?

Of course, about 10 days ago it was going to the Ga/Fl border

About equally as rare.

[cycloneye]

SAB goes either way, TS or hurricane. Is up to NHC to make the call.

24/2345 UTC 18.0N 48.8W T3.5/4.0 DANIELLE

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Time_Zone]

What are the chances this bad girl strikes the Canadian Maritimes?

It is certainly a possibility.

I agree, here in SW New Brunswick I feel rather safe (for now). If however I lived anywhere in Nova Scotia (especially the Eastern half), I'd be having second thoughts by now. Still no need to panic, but I'd still be watching this one with great interest.

To be honest i'm not too worried about this storm. By time it made it here it wouldn't be anything strong anyways.

[cycloneye]

Brent, yes, hurricane again at 11 PM.

00z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082500, , BEST, 0, 179N, 491W, 65, 990, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[blazess556]

Brent, yes,a hurricane at 11 PM.

00z Best Track


AL, 06, 2010082500, , BEST, 0, 179N, 491W, 65, 990, HU

yeah, but the best track had it a hurricane earlier today when it was a tropical storm so just because the best track has it as a hurricane doesn't mean the nhc is going to delcare it a hurricane at 11.

[cheezyWXguy]

lol this has to be one of the ugliest hurricanes I have ever seen. I must say, I was shocked when I saw it this morning.

[Frank P]

Not sure if this has been posted today but this is just an absolutely amazing sat loop of Danielle... better have high speed access to download.. got it off Facebook...

National Hurricane Center A new geostationary weather satellite (GOES-15) is undergoing science testing and it produced this Super Rapid Scan Imagery of Hurricane Danielle - visible images captured every minute.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp ... o_anim.gif

[AtlanticWind]

Not sure if this has been posted today but this is just an absolutely amazing sat loop of Danielle... better have high speed access to download.. got it off Facebook...

National Hurricane Center A new geostationary weather satellite (GOES-15) is undergoing science testing and it produced this Super Rapid Scan Imagery of Hurricane Danielle - visible images captured every minute.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp ... o_anim.gif

That is pretty amazing

[supercane]

Convective ring getting closer to completion on the west side: