ATL: EARL - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#141 Postby ronjon » Tue Aug 24, 2010 9:27 pm

Well Danielle misses the first trough, gets trapped under an upper ridge, and then gets pushed west by expanding mid-level high to the east according to the 18z GFS. I posted the 12z NOGAPs this afternoon which was the first model to show this northwestern movement. Could this be the year of the New England hurricane? I know JB has been blowing that horn lately.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#142 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 24, 2010 9:31 pm

Before we get back on topic want to say I agree with link weather's interpretation of adamfirst's post. Can a moderator please remove the poster's comment on it hitting virginia beach? It's highly misleading.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Windtalker1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 523
Age: 37
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 11:00 am
Location: Mesa, Arizona

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#143 Postby Windtalker1 » Tue Aug 24, 2010 9:38 pm

ronjon wrote:Well Danielle misses the first trough, gets trapped under an upper ridge, and then gets pushed west by expanding mid-level high to the east according to the 18z GFS. I posted the 12z NOGAPs this afternoon which was the first model to show this northwestern movement. Could this be the year of the New England hurricane? I know JB has been blowing that horn lately.

Image


Let's say this does happen and Danielle does start moving more on a WNW track toward the Mid Atlantic/New England area.....wouldn't that mean that the high is building in behind her and wouldn't that push any other storms following behind on a more of a westerly track? Just wondering......Thanks
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
vacanechaser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1461
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Portsmouth, Va
Contact:
Contact vacanechaser

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#144 Postby vacanechaser » Tue Aug 24, 2010 9:50 pm

Windtalker1 wrote:
ronjon wrote:Well Danielle misses the first trough, gets trapped under an upper ridge, and then gets pushed west by expanding mid-level high to the east according to the 18z GFS. I posted the 12z NOGAPs this afternoon which was the first model to show this northwestern movement. Could this be the year of the New England hurricane? I know JB has been blowing that horn lately.

Image


Let's say this does happen and Danielle does start moving more on a WNW track toward the Mid Atlantic/New England area.....wouldn't that mean that the high is building in behind her and wouldn't that push any other storms following behind on a more of a westerly track? Just wondering......Thanks



most likely... if she misses the trough, or its weaker, earl to be should miss as well... way to early, but something interesting to watch...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
0 likes   
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
Top
User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#145 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Aug 24, 2010 10:01 pm

ronjon wrote:Well Danielle misses the first trough, gets trapped under an upper ridge, and then gets pushed west by expanding mid-level high to the east according to the 18z GFS. I posted the 12z NOGAPs this afternoon which was the first model to show this northwestern movement. Could this be the year of the New England hurricane? I know JB has been blowing that horn lately.

Image


Lately? Hes been blowing that horn since 1995...lol
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145295
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#146 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 24, 2010 10:58 pm

Lets see what the 00z GFS does with 96L.

48 hours.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#147 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:07 pm

I am sensing a more westward solution this run..at 48hrs.. Dees north jogging has slowed to a walk...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145295
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#148 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:14 pm

ROCK so far that is correct.

96 Hours.
Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#149 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:15 pm

96 hours out, 96L is solidly below 20N and a little past 50W. In fact, it looks like it is chugging WSW from 84-96 hours.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#150 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:17 pm

Earl is catching up to Dee on this run and it seems plausible....what if any interaction will be interesting...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145295
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#151 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:19 pm

120 hours.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#152 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:20 pm

Looks like its going to plow into the NE Caribbean on this run.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re:

#153 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:21 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Looks like its going to plow into the NE Caribbean on this run.


Yeah it does..getting close but Dee has left some weakness behind and is still kicking...really depends how fast she gets out of the way and let that massive high settle in on top of him...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#154 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:28 pm

Evil,,,,getting dam close to running over PR.....nasty if that verified for the islanders...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145295
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#155 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:31 pm

At 20N-60W. Another one behind, but that is for the Talking Tropics thread.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#156 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:33 pm

He pulls up before he gets to you....but really close call on this run....the one behind is a different story though.....
0 likes   
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#157 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:34 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#158 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:35 pm

[quote="Wx_Warrior"]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_150m.gifquote]

there is the swinging gate...wide open...if it doesnt fill Earl will take it...and maybe the one behind him....
0 likes   
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#159 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:40 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145295
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 96L - Models

#160 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:40 pm

Bermuda gets a 1-2 punch.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2010”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest