Caribbean - Central America Weather

[knotimpaired]

Hi Luis
what are aguacate trees?

Oh you got me as I dont know how to describe them in english but they are big green fruits.

Luis, I think you need to go back to our friend in the southermost island,

K

[knotimpaired]

Avocados

[bvigal]

Hola, Luis and neighbors!!

Luis, with 12z models out still TD, do you think we'll see an upgrade to TS at 5pm?

[cycloneye]

Hola, Luis and neighbors!!

Luis, with 12z models out still TD, do you think we'll see an upgrade to TS at 5pm?

Good morning. It all depends on how the system looks but if trend of center staying under convection continues, then it will be named later today.

[bvigal]

This year, something is different in my mind, compared to the last 10 seasons. Don't know what it is, but at this point don't believe ANY of the models beyond a day or two, or any forecasts based upon models. I do believe what I see with my own eyes on satellite, and the derived products, and that's about all. For a season year when not even tropical waves can be accurately identified from one day to the next, what IS predictable? Certainly will be checking on #6 frequently to see latest development, until it's safely above about 22N!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC... BASED ON LATEST BULLETIN FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS CENTERED NEAR
12.7N 34.1W AT 22/1500 UTC OR SOME 665 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... MOVING NW AT 12 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS NEAR
35 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST SECTION
OF PUERTO RICO...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA. AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SURGE IN MOISTURE...A SLOT OF DRY AIR WAS
DISCERNIBLE IN SATELTIE IMAGES AS WELL AS LATEST MIMIC TPW
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR WAS LOCATED OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES...AND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TO THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR 55 WEST LONGITUDE
THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...DRY AIR BEHIND THIS WAVE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.7N 34.1W AT 22/1500
UTC OR SOME 665 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
MOVING NW AT 12 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS NEAR 35 MPH. STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO PASS
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...MARINE
CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE A LITTLE...AS THE SYSTEM PASS TO OUR
NORTH..AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TJMZ AT LEAST
THROUGH 22/22Z...IN SHRA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE...HOWERVER...SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJBQ...TJPS..AND TJSJ TONIGHT.

[Macrocane]

The ITCZ is still just over El Salvador and Guatemala thanks to Frank it has been raining the whole day and though the rains have not been very intense they have been very persistent in time thankfully no major problems have been reported yet. Last night the east part of the country experienced most of the rainfall with a maximum of 97.2 mm/3.83 inches:



The latest IR image:

[alanstover]

Stay dry down there, Macrocane!
Thankfully we haven´t gotten more than a few light showers so far. Hopefully it won´t strengthen much more till its farther away from us.

[Macrocane]

Thanks alanstover. The good news is that it is moving away from us so its influence is diminishing although according to the forecasts the ITCZ is still going to be very close to Guatemala and El Salvador so we are going to see a few more showers from it.

[BZSTORM]

that TW that came through most to the North and far south, didn't affect Placencia area much we didn't get more than one big storm in the night on Friday big thunder storm and winds approx 25kt as a guess a fitting tribute to our friends wake held that night blew straight through and was gone in time for the funeral - TW gone but for 2 nights in row weve had high winds 25kt with prob higher gusts and squalls. One squall just passed through but man the trash thats been dumped on the beaches is heart breaking, my husband estimated that trash was blown across the beach to the road which is about 30feet, but also there is about 10 feet of trash lodged at the edge of the sea, sure if we get storm which dumps sand on top could be consider landflill but next storm will just dig it out again and sent it elsewhere or up the coast. Its mostly PLASTIC bottle tops, some medical waste (syringes and IV bags from where your guess is as good as ours, years back found some washed up that were of a cruise ship) and lots of shoes flip flops and crocs (haha some even match), someone said they got a bunch of empty 2 stroke oil containers on their piece of beach this morning! could be from a caye which had been stashed to be brought in or some idiots dumping trash from boats in the sea, wind has been mostly SW so could be coming up from Honduras - either way its not good for the tourism industry which we rely on.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST MON AUG 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND RETREATS
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS IN THE LOCAL AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
NEAR 27 WEST IS DIVIDED BETWEEN 50 AND 60 WEST BY AN INTRUDING
TROPICAL CYCLONE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MID LEVELS ARE
SOMEWHAT DRY DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A
BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY PROPELLED BY HIGH PRESSURE
DEFORMING AROUND TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE...WHICH WILL PASS WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A SECOND WAVE PASSES MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND MODEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY AND THE NARROWING
DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE MOISTURE IN THE TROUGH AND THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE NOW APPEARS JUST EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT THE
PRESENT RATE OF MOVEMENT IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH SAN JUAN DURING
THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE THAT WILL TRIGGER
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE THE DAY
IS OVER. THE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO BE
ABOUT 6 DEGREES OF LATITUDE WIDE TO OUR EAST AND WILL PASS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. AN ARC OF MOISTURE IS TRAILING THE WAVE BUT NOW
APPEARS TO BE SINKING SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE MAY FILL
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE AS WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE AND WITH THE WIND
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST SHOWERS IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTENSIFY IN THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK BANDS OF MOISTURE PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE BEST MOISTURE PASSES THE AREA
BY ON SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS STILL STRENGTHENING AND WAS PLACED AT
14.8 NORTH 37.1 WEST AT 5 AM...MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. IT
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PASS
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MORE THAN 900 MILES ON FRIDAY. AS IT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST...RETURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD COOL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FROM TUESDAYS
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHEAST COAST...BUT WE MAY SEE AN
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN SAN JUAN WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TODAY
INCREASING THE CLOUDINESS AND THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 23/12Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS TJMZ AND
VICINITY FROM 23/17-21Z...RESULTING IN TEMPO MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR. LLVL
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY...INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE WEEK AND REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...FROM SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE ON
FRIDAY. SAID SWELL WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS THE MOST DUE
TO FETCH AND STRENGTH CONSIDERATIONS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE
WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WILL PASS WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON ACROSS PUERTO RICO. AREAS OF
VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA...AFFECTING MAINLY THE MUNICIPALITY OF BAYAMON. A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...AND ANOTHER AREA OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO
RICO...BETWEEN SAN SEBASTIAN AND LAS MARIAS. ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE...AND DAYTIME HEATING...AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE...AN AREA OF DRIER AIR...WITH SOME
SAHARAN AIR...WAS EVIDENT IN THE SATELITE IMAGES MOVING WEST.
HOWEVER...LATEST FORECAST FROM NAAPS AEROSOL ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS
AREA WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREFORE...ONLY
SOME HAZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS STILL STRENGTHENING AND WAS
PLACED AT 15.1 NORTH 39.4 WEST AT 11 AM...MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT
16 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND PASS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MORE THAN 900 MILES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR WITH EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TJMZ
UNTIL AT LEAST 23/22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

[Macrocane]

Today we had cloudy skies and a nice southerly breeze but very little rain. Yesterday we had moderate rains and cloudy skies with gusty winds, it was a very cool day and the maximum temperatures did not reach 30°C/86°F anywhere in the country, yesterday observations:

Temperatures

Code: Select all

Acajutla         min:22.3°C/72.1°F      max:26.6°C/79.9°F
Santa Ana        min:19.1°C/66.4°F      max:26.2°C/79.2°F
San Salvador     min:20.1°C/68.2°F      max:24.1°C/75.4°F
Las Pilas        min:13.4°C/56.1°F      max:16.8°C/62.2°F
San Miguel       min:22.7°C/72.9°F      max:26.3°C/79.3°F 


[cycloneye]

Good morning.

FXCA62 TJSJ 240940
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK GRADIENTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS MORE
STRONGLY TO THE NORTH.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
SQUEEZED BETWEEN HURRICANE DANIELLE AND A STRONG TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AT LEAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD
MOVEMENT OUT OF THE AREA...WHILE MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWEST OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO OUR SOUTH. HURRICANE DANIELLE...WHICH WAS
AT 15.9 NORTH AND 44.6 WEST AT 5 AM AST...WILL DOMINATE THE SURFACE
PATTERN WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND OVER OUR
AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A PASSAGE TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH MUCH BETTER MOISTURE. THE
PASSAGE OF A SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHEAST IS
POSSIBLE THE FIRST OF NEXT MONTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS CAME ON SHORE OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH TOPS TO 52 THOUSAND FEET...BUT GENERALLY THE
AREA WAS DRY. DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING AND THE ARC OF MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DO SO BUT SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS FALLING AND THE SAN JUAN SOUNDER SHOWS IT
AT ABOUT 1.7 INCHES...WHICH IS OVER HALF AN INCH LOWER THAN 18
HOURS AGO. AS NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY...A BAND OF
MOISTURE ALREADY VISIBLE WILL BE PUSHED TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
IMPROVE SHOWER CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE NORTHEAST ONE THIRD OF PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS
WILL BE MODEST AS THE MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDS UP THROUGH 700 MB.
ANOTHER SMALL POCKET OF MOISTURE WAS SEEN FORECAST TO ROLL THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT TRULY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL NOT BE UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHEN A TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVES VERY
MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA...AGAIN FAVORING PUERTO RICO MORE THAN
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WHICH ARE GENERALLY JUST A LITTLE TOO FAR
EAST TO BE AFFECTED SO MUCH ACCORDING TO THE SOLUTIONS PUT FORTH
BY THE GFS AND AND ECMWF. NEVERTHELESS DEWPOINTS IN THE HIGH 70S
WITH OCCASIONAL EXCURSIONS TO 80 DEGREES WILL INDICATE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP WESTERN PUERTO RICO SUFFICIENTLY MOIST FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON. THE LIFTED INDEX WAS
FORECAST BY THE NAM TO BE MINUS 8.5 THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE BOOSTED
POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

MODELS ARE NOW ALSO FORECASTING HURRICANE EARL AND HAVE IT PASSING
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA THAN DANIELLE IN THE 00Z RUN...BUT STILL
ALMOST 500 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST AT CLOSEST APPROACH IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCT
TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVER TJMZ AND VICINITY DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR WILL ALSO BE LIKELY AFT
24/15Z. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES...WITH SOME VCTS NEAR TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ. PREVAILING
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH LOCAL
VARIATIONS INDUCED BY THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF DANIELLE TO THE NORTHEAST...SEAS IN
THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY...AND WILL LIKELY
MEET OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 241853
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE
WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS PATTERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF DANNIELLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HAZY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS LIMITED THE SHOWER AND THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXRAD DOPPLER RADAR IS ONLY SHOWING ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO DANILLE BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE
SHOWER COVERAGE. A MUCH UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA AS THE TUTT ALOFT ESTABLISHES TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE/WEAKEN.

&&

.AVIATION...HAZY SKIES...WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 6SM...WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SHRA AND
TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR WILL
DIMINISH AFT 24/23Z...AND IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW
BETWEEN 25/17Z-25/23Z...RESULTING IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS OR
BRIEF IFR CONDS ACROSS TJMZ./SR


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS DANIELLE MOVES CLOSER
TO THE LOCAL REGION. SEAS WILL BEGAN TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
THIS ENE SWELLS TO PEAK ON THURSDAY MORNING AT AROUND 2.3 METER
AND PERIODS OF 12.4 SECONDS. ALTHOUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY...THE SWELL WILL SWITCH DIRECTIONS TOWARD A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. A EASTERLY SWELL ASSOCIATED TO THE NEXT
TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEMS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1005 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

.UPDATE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DETECTED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER MAYAGUEZ...MARICAO AND LAS MARIAS. THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED BEFORE SUNSET...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO THREE INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VI DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR TOMORROW...GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER AND HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED
CONDITIONS...THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...HAZY SKIES...WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 6SM...WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. NO OTHER
WEATHER FLYING HAZARD ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL TAF
SITES DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW BETWEEN 25/17Z-25/23Z OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...RESULTING IN
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS OR BRIEF IFR CONDS ACROSS TJMZ.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. We have to watch what is going on not only with Danielle, but 96L and waves behind as we enter the peak of the season.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
AS HURRICANE DANIELLE MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARD IT. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL PULL A TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM MID WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS SET UP BOTH DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND HURRICANE DANIELLE WHICH WAS
AT 18.8 NORTH 51.0 WEST AT 5 AM AST. HURRICANE DANIELLE WILL DRAG
A TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PULL A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A SECOND TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MIMIC PRODUCT CLEARLY SHOWED A BAND OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER CROSSING THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING THAT HAS BROUGHT NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...AND
SOME SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THE SOUNDER IN SAN JUAN SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER SPIKING
ABOVE 2.1 INCHES THIS MORNING AROUND 25/07Z. THIS BAND IS LIKELY
TO BE OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN TIME FOR THE MAXIMUM AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS WELL. THIS WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH POSSIBLE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE BACK EDGE OF THIS BAND...BUT DUE TO A
BULGE IN THE BAND TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE MAY LINGER EVEN
THERE...ALTHOUGH IT IS MORE CERTAIN TO CLEAR OUT OF THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THERE HOWEVER.
BANDS OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND HURRICANE DANIELLE APPEAR TO
MISS THE LOCAL AREA BUT MOISTURE IS DRAWN OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN AND EVEN SOUTH AMERICA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THAT WILL
INCREASE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS DEPICTS THIS AREA
OF MOISTURE BEING PULLED BACK OVER THE ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY DUE TO
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM. A THIRD SYSTEM MAY DO
LIKEWISE LATE NEXT WEEK. BUT THESE LATTER TWO SYSTEMS MUST FORM
FIRST BEFORE ANYTHING CAN BE STATED WITH CONFIDENCE. IN THE
MEANTIME MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE HIGH...WITH SOME STRONG
BANDING NEAR SYSTEMS AND IN TROUGHS CREATED BY THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT WILL CAUSE ABRUPT INCREASES AND
DECREASES OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...A BAND OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PR
AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL BRING SCT LLVL CLOUDS AND PASSING
SHRA ACROSS THE USVI TAF SITES AND TJSJ AT LEAST UNTIL 25/15Z.
AFTERWARD...SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN BETWEEN 25/17Z-23Z
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...RESULTING
IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS OR BRIEF IFR CONDS ACROSS TJMZ AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BEGIN INCREASING ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT DUE
TO WINDS IN HURRICANE DANIELLE. THIS WILL BRING SEAS OF 7 TO 8
FEET TO THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND TO THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 7 FEET ON
SATURDAY. SEAS MAY RISE AGAIN ON MONDAY IF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT IN BRINGING A SECOND TROPICAL SYSTEM EVEN CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA.

[Gustywind]

Hi my friends . Glad to see your all nice posts, i appreciate as usual!!! Thanks to you Cycloneye, HUC, Msbee, Macrocane, knotimpaired, Abajan, Expat2carib, Bvigal and the others who are not forbidden . I love this wink!
Gustywind is back after so long days. I'm in shape and amazed by this whole friendly link of this caribbean community I'm ready to monitor this " second" part of the season as we're entering in the peak of the hurricane season. Things are heating up given what my untrained eyes are seeing between Danielle and newly formed TD7 or maybe Earl this afternoon given the NHC....
Whereas, let's continue to enjoy the summer holidays in the tropics and be linked for ever.
Regards
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VI AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A SURGE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...AS HURRICANE
DANIELLE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...IS EXPECTED
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS
TO THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...REACHED WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY EARLY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE ISLAND. EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET...AND FOR PATCHY MOISTURE IN EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE VI AND EASTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER...GFS IS INDICATING AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TYPICAL LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EACH DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT SURGE
IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR HURRICANE DANIELLE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVEN AS THEY CROSS THE ATLANTIC. WHILE THE MAIN EFFECT FROM
DANIELLE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING SEAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THE LATEST GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN MAY
TAKE A SLIGHTLY CLOSER PATH TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THIS SYSTEM AS THE EXACT PATH SO MANY DAYS OUT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING EASTERLY SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
DANIELLE WILL BRING 7 TO 8 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 25/22Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TJPS THROUGH 23/21Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF TAF SITES TONIGHT. SOME
LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ
AFT 26/02Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 KTS OR
LESS.

[cycloneye]

Hi my friends . Glad to see your all nice posts, i appreciate as usual!!! Thanks to you Cycloneye, HUC, Msbee, Macrocane, knotimpaired, Abajan, Expat2carib, Bvigal and the others who are not forbidden . I love this wink!
Gustywind is back after so long days. I'm in shape and amazed by this whole friendly link of this caribbean community I'm ready to monitor this " second" part of the season as we're entering in the peak of the hurricane season. Things are heating up given what my untrained eyes are seeing between Danielle and newly formed TD7 or maybe Earl this afternoon given the NHC....
Whereas, let's continue to enjoy the summer holidays in the tropics and be linked for ever.
Regards
Gustywind

Hey my friend, welcome back. Yes, things are heating up and we will have to watch to our east closely.