EPAC: Ex-Tropical Depression FRANK

[supercane]

Looks like it's strengthening again like NHC thought.

Improved microwave appearance:


Dvorak classification from SSD increasing:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/1145 UTC 15.4N 101.2W T3.5/3.5 FRANK
24/0545 UTC 14.9N 100.0W T3.0/3.0 FRANK

And slightly higher winds to 55 from 50 kt on best track:
EP, 09, 2010082412, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1011W, 55, 994, TS
EP, 09, 2010082406, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1005W, 50, 997, TS

Edited to fix image

[KWT]

Yeah sure looks like its trying to tighten up there, may make a quick run at hurricane strength if it can wrap up quickly enough...

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 241443
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2010

FRANK HAS MADE A RESURGENCE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVING
DEVELOPED AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. A
24/0924Z TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS AND
THAT A 75 PERCENT EYEWALL HAD FORMED. SINCE THAT TIME...CONVECTION
IN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY. A SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 OR 55 KT WAS ANALYZED BY BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
MOTION OF 285/06. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO KEEP FRANK MOVING IN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF U.S. WEST COAST AND
BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AND DECREASE THE STEERING FLOW. THE LATEST GFDL RUN NOW TAKES
FRANK AND ITS WIND FIELD MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO BY 36-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT AND FORECAST
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FRANK...THE GFDL SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCC.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS-BASED
SHIPS MODEL INDICATES NEAR 20 KT CURRENTLY ACROSS FRANK...THE
CYCLONE HAS STILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST SIMILAR SHEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS FRANK
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES AND
WATER VAPOR WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE ACTUAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTER OF
FRANK IS CLOSER TO 15 KT. BY 36 HOURS...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO
DEVELOP OVER FRANK BY 48 HOURS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANK
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS...AND HIGHER THAN
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS FRANK WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO WERE DISCONTINUED
EARLIER THIS MORNING.

HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ALTHOUGH THESE
RAINS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK...THEY STILL POSE A
SERIOUS FLOOD THREAT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 15.4N 101.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 15.8N 102.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 16.5N 104.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 17.2N 106.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 17.9N 107.6W 70 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 19.1N 110.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 20.0N 112.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 21.0N 113.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[lester]

18z Best track puts frank at 70 mph.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 242037
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2010

FRANK HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AS INDICATED BY
IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE NOTED EARLIER TODAY HAS ERODED
SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CENTER
REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION AT LEAST 35 NMI IN FROM THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB. NHC
3-HR AVERAGE ADT VALUES HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN T3.8/61 KT AND
T3.7/59 KT. PEAK ADT VALUES WERE T3.9/63 KT BETWEEN 15-16Z. BASED
ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 60 KT. A
1554Z ASCAT PASS WAS USED TO DEFINE THE 50- AND 34-KT WIND RADII.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/07. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FRANK IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED EXPECTED BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
AND WEAKENS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE GFDL MODEL...
WHICH HAD BEEN THE RIGHT-MOST OUTLIER MODEL WITH A TRACK FAIRLY
CLOSE TO MEXICO HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS NOW BACK IN THE FOLD AS
ONE OF THE LEFT-MOST MODELS IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND
REMAINS BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCC.

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH SOME DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...MODEST
CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING IN THE DRY SLOT SUGGESTS THAT THE
EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. FRANK IS ALSO MOVING
INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR BASED ON UW-CIMSS SHEAR
ANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST FRANK TO DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE SYSTEM BY 36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT FORMATION
OF A HURRICANE...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
EVEN THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS FRANK UP TO 74 KT BY 36 HOURS. BY DAY
4...FRANK SHOULD BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
GRADUAL WEAKENING TO ENSUE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH 24 HOURS...
AND HIGHER THAN THOSE MODELS AFTER THAT BASED ON THE FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 15.6N 102.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 16.1N 103.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 16.8N 105.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 17.4N 106.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 18.1N 108.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 19.3N 111.2W 75 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 20.2N 112.6W 65 KT
120HR VT 29/1800Z 21.5N 113.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[KWT]

Looks like it is indeed making a run for hurricane strength, I'd imagine barring another blow occuring for Frank it'll make it to hurricane status tonight.

[supercane]

Frank in a low shear pocket currently on the periphery of high pressure aloft:


Still looks like easterly shear impeding strengthening:


Microwave not looking close to hurricane status:

[supercane]

Holding steady with Dvorak...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/2345 UTC 16.0N 102.3W T3.5/3.5 FRANK
24/1745 UTC 15.6N 101.9W T3.5/3.5 FRANK

and with MSW from ATCF:

EP, 09, 2010082418, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1018W, 55, 992, TS
EP, 09, 2010082500, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1025W, 55, 992, TS

[supercane]

ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANK ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2010

...FRANK MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO....


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 102.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST. FRANK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FRANK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AND FRANK COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

NNNN


ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
0300 UTC WED AUG 25 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.9W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 55SE 55SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.9W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.4N 104.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 55SE 55SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.7N 107.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.3N 109.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.5N 111.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 102.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


NNNN

CZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2010

THE CENTER OF FRANK HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...EARLIER AMSR-E AND AMSU MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES WERE VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER...WHICH IS NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK DATA
T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 OR 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.

STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IS
EXPECTED TO GIVE FRANK AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN BEFORE. ALTHOUGH
THE 18Z GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE FRANK REACHING HURRICANE
INTENSITY VERY SOON...THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE CURRENT
STRONG SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL APPEARS MORE REASONABLE BY
STRENGTHENING FRANK AFTER THE SHEAR DECREASES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST PREDICTS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
AND BRINGS FRANK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE.
BEYOND 72 HOURS...STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS FRANK MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE UPDATED
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT 96 AND 120
HOURS...WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. FRANK IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/8 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FRANK IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO
DECELERATE AS A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WEAKENS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 16.0N 102.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 16.4N 104.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 17.7N 107.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 18.3N 109.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 19.5N 111.8W 60 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 20.5N 113.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W 35 KT

[Kingarabian]

Wow it blew up.

Edit I think they might raise it to 70mph:

EP, 09, 2010082506, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1032W, 60, 991, TS

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 250843
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
200 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2010

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU-B OVERPASS INDICATE
THAT FRANK HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE IMAGERY
REVEALS A WELL DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURE WITH -80C CLOUD TOPS
EXTENDING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OVER THE CYCLONE...AND A STRONG
BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
RECENT TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING STRONG CONVECTIVE
BAND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP TO 60 KT. THE UW-CIMSS
SHEAR PRODUCT SUGGESTS THAT SOME EASTERLY SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE
CLOUD PATTERN...HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW IS QUITE DIFFLUENT...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WHERE THE
STRONG BAND RESIDES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR
FRANK TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...BUT SOONER THAN SHOWN IN THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. BEYOND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD...A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 285/8. FRANK IS MOVING WITHIN THE
DEEP-LAYER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS. AFTERWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD
CAUSE FRANK TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS BY DAY 5. THE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH
OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CONSEQUENTLY...THE NHC OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...
TVCN...AND THE ECMWF GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 16.2N 103.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 16.6N 105.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 17.1N 106.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 17.7N 108.7W 65 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 18.3N 110.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 112.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 20.5N 113.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 30/0600Z 21.5N 113.5W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[KWT]

Looks very close to hurricane strength IMO, its blown up very nicely recently!

[HURAKAN]

EP, 09, 2010082512, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1044W, 65, 987, HU

Hurricane Frank

[Macrocane]

It was a long fight with the shear but it seems that finally it will be upgraded on the next advisory.

[HURAKAN]

184
WTPZ34 KNHC 251431
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANK ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2010

...FRANK BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE SEASON AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 104.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST. FRANK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FRANK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS NEAR SOCORRO
ISLAND ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FRANK IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


197
WTPZ44 KNHC 251432
TCDEP4
HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2010

MICROWAVE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATES FRANK HAS BECOME
MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND THAT THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF A VERY COLD CDO WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C TO -86C.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...ALTHOUGH DATA-T NUMBERS WERE A CONSENSUS T5.0/90 KT.
THEREFORE...FRANK IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE.

FRANK REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09.
HURRICANE FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A STEADY
PACE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE U.S. AND BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ERODE
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. AS THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS...
FRANK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY BEGIN
RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

AN 0834 UTC AMSR MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED FRANK HAD A CLOSED LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL EYE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING FEATURES IN ALL
QUADRANTS. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL INDICATE AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FRANK DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO FORECASTING FRANK TO STRENGTHEN VERTICALLY AS
DEPICTED BY A 45-55 KT CYCLONIC 200 MB CIRCULATION BY 24 HOURS.
THIS FEATURE WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE...BUT
THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL ONLY BRINGS FRANK UP TO 76 KT. THE GFDL IS
ABOUT 10 KT HIGHER. BY 72 HOURS...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
OVER MUCH COOLER WATER... WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 16.6N 104.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 17.0N 106.2W 70 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 17.6N 108.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 18.2N 109.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 18.8N 111.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 19.9N 113.2W 55 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 21.0N 113.8W 45 KT
120HR VT 30/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[supercane]

Morning vis:


IR:


Microwave:

[KWT]

Doesn't look too bad at the moment, not at all surprising Frank finally made it to hurricane status!

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
200 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2010

THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF FRANK THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO THE
BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE BECAME APPARENT. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT
18Z WERE 65 KT AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE
HAS ABOUT 36-48 HOURS LEFT OVER WARM WATER...AND WITH THE SHEAR
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED...SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WITH THE LGEM AND HWRF
SHOWING LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. AFTER 48 HOURS...A
GRADUAL DECAY OVER COOLER WATERS IS EXPECTED.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH FRANK IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER NOW...AT
285/11. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
FRANK SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF
THE U.S. AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT
DIRECTION. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS
4-5...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL EASTWARD AND
NORTHWARD MOTION...RESPECTIVELY...AND ARE POSSIBLY MAINTAINING TOO
COHERENT A VORTEX AT THOSE RANGES. THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...SUGGEST THAT A RELATIVELY WEAK CYCLONE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY WITHIN AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 17.0N 106.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.4N 107.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 17.9N 109.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 18.5N 111.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 19.0N 113.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 114.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 21.0N 114.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 22.0N 114.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[supercane]

ASCAT from earlier:

[KWT]

Blowing up some pretty impressive convection right now, plenty of deep convection with this system thats for sure!

I'd raise it to 70kts myself.