WPAC: INVEST 97W

[StormingB81]

This is the one near Guam!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


Now it starts to get interesting

[supercane]

97W, located N of Guam, three ways:

Not too shabby on morning vis:


IR:


Hint of circulation on microwave:


First SSD Dvorak classification out:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/2032 UTC 19.4N 141.2E T1.0/1.0 97W

[KWT]

Not a bad looking invest really, has a chance of developing but the models don't seem to be too keen at the moment on anything in the WPAC...

[supercane]

JTWC updating their version of the TWO for 97W:

ABPW10 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/242100Z-250600ZAUG2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZAUG2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 241200Z, TROPICAL STORM 06W (MINDULLE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.0N 105.5E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HANOI,
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 241500) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.4N 140.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR A WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 241605Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE. THIS
DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BENEATH AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. TUTT CELLS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND
EAST ARE FAVORABLY ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS WEAK AND DEVELOPING SLOWLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1)//
NNNN

[Typhoon10]

We have got to have some serious activity soon! Is this the one that some are predicting with be a strong typhoon and head up towards Okinawa?

[supercane]

As KWT said, there is not much model support for anything. I can't find a global model that wants to develop 97W.

[StormingB81]

The un reliable Hong Kong one has it comming here.

[Typhoon10]

The un reliable Hong Kong one has it comming here.

Where do you see that? They track it going towards Okinawa with a just a small depression developing in the SCS?

http://www.hko.gov.hk/nwp/nwpsfcpp72e.htm

[StormingB81]

Yes I am in OKinawa thats why I said Thier models have it coming here to OKinawa

[StormingB81]

Hope noone forgets this one as it moves close towards Okinawa. I wonder what the chances are for development.

[supercane]

Last afternoon vis:


Latest IR:


Microwave not showing anything imminent:

[supercane]

JTWC's "TWO":
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.4N
140.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 140.0E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THIS DISTURBANCE LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BENEATH
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. TUTT CELLS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND
EAST ARE FAVORABLY ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.

And JMA 06Z position:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 19N 137E NW SLOWLY.

BTW, unsure why the NRL images above have moved so far west and are focusing on former 96L's territory.

[supercane]

Recent ASCAT suggests circulation, but it gets the east side, and cannot guarantee that it's closed:

[StormingB81]

Who knows what this thing is trying to do now...but on sat radar it looks like it is trying to merge with former 96w..

[supercane]

12Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 20N 137E NNW 10 KT.

[supercane]

Morning vis:


Microwave:


JMA 18Z analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 17N 126E WNW SLOWLY.

[supercane]

PAGASA's take:

Synopsis : At 2:00 a.m. today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 320 km East Southeast of Tuguegarao City (17.0°N, 125.0°E) embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) affecting the country.

[supercane]

TXPN28 KNES 260308
SIMWIR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)
B. 26/0232Z
C. 20.4N
D. 131.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. TOO WEAK
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...LLCC LACKS CONVECTION THUS THE SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...LIDDICK

[StormingB81]

97 is off the NRL site